Before the season, sportsbooks will release a number of wins they predict each NFL team to win during the regular season. Gamblers can choose to bet the over/under on the win total. Predicting each NFL team’s over/under isn’t easy, as each game result impacts so much.
Win totals found here.
Predict every game of teh 2021 NFL season at playoffpredictors.com.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills- Over 11 wins
The Bills had a great season in 2020 and went 13-3. They made the AFC Championship Game and retained most of their roster from last season. Buffalo even added wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to the mix on the offensive end. With an extra game on the schedule, the Bills should be able to top 11 wins.
Miami Dolphins- Over 9.5 winsÂ
In 2020, the Dolphins went 10-6 and barely missed out on the playoffs. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa having more experience under his belt and a roster that has added a lot of quality players over the last two seasons (including Will Fuller, Byron Jones and Jaylen Waddle), Miami should be able to come in second in the AFC East and narrowly eclipse 9.5 wins.
New England Patriots- Under 9.5 wins
New England had players opt out last season and finished the year at 7-9. They have Cam Newton or Mac Jones at quarterback, neither of which appear ready to lead the Patriots to a playoff berth. While they added tight ends in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, New England didn’t address the wide receiver position adequately. With the additions of Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy, the defense will have some talent, but they don’t have the offensive firepower to win at least 10 games in a tough division.
New York Jets- Under 6 wins
With the drafting of Zach Wilson, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Elijah Moore to go with the signing of Corey Davis, the Jets made massive improvements for their offense. The defense also improved with the addition of Carl Lawson. Even with their improvements, they have a rookie quarterback who is a gunslinger and a secondary that isn’t very good. They may improve on their two wins from last season, but adding at least four wins to their total from 2020 is a little steep.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens- Over 11 wins
For the 2020 season, the Ravens won 11 games. Lamar Jackson missed a game and now there is an extra game on the schedule. Baltimore did trade Orlando Brown and lost Matthew Judon to free agency, but most of the key players are in place to win the AFC North and that will at least require 11 wins.
Cincinnati Bengals- Under 6.5 wins
Cincinnati won four games in 2020. They were able to pick up some of their wins when Joe Burrow was out, which is encouraging. Unfortunately, they downgraded on defense by letting Carl Lawson and William Jackson walk out the door in free agency. They also didn’t address the offensive line as much as they should have in the offseason. With reports out of camp saying that the offense has been struggling giving up pressure, the Bengals will likely win more games than last season, but not more than six games.
Cleveland Browns- Over 10.5 wins
The Browns were able to play so well in 2020 because of their offensive line, which is something they had neglected in previous years. With that offensive line, two star receivers and Nick Chubb running the football, the offense should only improve. There were some injuries on defense too last season for the Browns and they still won 11 games. The smart money is on the Browns eclipsing 10.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Under 8.5 wins
Pittsburgh won 12 games last season, but faltered down the stretch. Ben Roethlisberger looks like he doesn’t have too much left in the tank. On top of that, he will be under siege this season, as Pittsburgh lost plenty of offensive linemen from last season. Rookie running back Najee Harris is talented, and so too are the wide receivers, but it will be hard to move the ball consistently with their offensive lines. The defense should be solid with players like T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but they could be playing with bad field position a lot because of the offense. With a tough schedule, it will be hard for Pittsburgh to get over 8.5 wins this season.
AFC South
Houston Texans- Under 4 wins
The Texans have laid out a gameplan of exactly what not to do as a franchise. First, Bill O’Brien trade DeAndre Hopkins, then O’Brien was rightfully fired. This offseason J.J. Watt was granted his wish to get out of Houston, while Deshaun Watson asked for a trade and now is in legal trouble and likely won’t play this year. Quite simply, the Texans don’t have many impactful players and the only way they get over four wins is because their division is relatively easy.
Indianapolis Colts- Under 9 wins
Indianapolis won 11 games and made the playoffs behind a good running game and a great defense. Philip Rivers retired and now Carson Wentz is trying to find his footing again after being traded from the Eagles. To make things worse, Wentz and Quenton Nelson are nursing foot injuries after having surgeries. The defense is still great, but with a tough schedule and the injuries to the offense (they will also be starting Sam Tevi at left tackle to open the season until Eric Fisher is able to come back from injury) it will be really hard to get to nine wins.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Under 6.5 wins
The Jaguars will have a new franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. They also have a deep receiving core and now have an extra weapon at running back in Travis Etienne to go with James Robinson. Shaq Griffin should help the defense, but C.J. Henderson is rumored to be traded. They will likely do better than their one win in 2020, but the Jaguars will not win more than six games.
Tennessee Titans- Over 9 wins
With a relatively easy division, especially with the Colts injuries, the Titans should be able to win over nine games and make the playoffs. After winning 11 games last season, the Titans only added to their team. They now have superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to pair with A.J. Brown. With those weapons, Ryan Tannehill is poised for another big year at quarterback and Derrick Henry may have more room to run free. The defense lost Adoree Jackson at corner, but they drafted Caleb Farley to replace him. They also got Bud Dupree to help rush the passer. This team will be better than last season, even though they do have a slightly tougher schedule.
AFC West
Denver Broncos- Over 8.5 wins
The Broncos have a Super Bowl quality roster, the problem has been with their injuries and the quarterback position. Drew Lock looked solid in his first preseason game this year and has all the weapons needed to be successful. Between Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, his pass-catchers will get separation. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams should complement each other. The defense will have both Bradley Chubb and Von Miller rushing the passer again, which is something that hasn’t been seen often recently due to injuries. While their linebackers leave some to be desired, the secondary is very talented. If the Broncos get anything resembling decent quarterback play, they could be in the running for the playoffs at the end of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs- Over 12.5 wins
Kansas City went back to the Super Bowl last season after finishing the year at 14-2. They have a revamped offensive line that may take time to gel together, but when they do, the unit could be better than last year (before the injuries). Sammy Watkins is gone from the offense, but with how much speed they have, and Travis Kelce over the middle, the offense can be just as explosive as long as Patrick Mahomes can stay healthy. With Chris Jones on the defensive line and Tyrann Mathieu patrolling the backend of the defense, the Chiefs will be competitive on that side of the ball. It may be tough to get to 14 wins again, even with the extra regular season game, but they should eclipse 12.5.
Las Vegas Raiders- Under 7 wins
Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have assembled an absolute wild card of a team. That’s not in the sense of them sneaking into the playoffs either. They are just unpredictable. Derek Carr has been inconsistent and now needs Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards to both step up after underwhelming rookie seasons. Unfortunately for the Raiders, it will be harder for these players to produce because the team dismantled their entire offensive line. Pair that with the defense not getting much better, although the additions of Yannick Ngakoue, Casey Hayward and the drafting of Trevon Moehrig should help, and this is a team that will likely struggle.
Los Angeles Chargers- Over 9.5 wins
Last season the Chargers went 7-9 with Justin Herbert as a rookie. Now that he has some experience under his belt, he should be able to take a massive step forward. This is especially true because the Chargers added to their offensive line by signing center Corey Linsley and drafting tackle Rashawn Slater. His reliable target in Keenan Allen is back and running back Austin Ekeler returns from injury. The offense is much improved. On defense, they need to stay healthy for once. Melvin Ingram is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, but Joey Bosa still should have success getting after the quarterback. Derwin James needs to have a healthy year and rookie corner Asante Samuel needs to step up from day one, but the Chargers should get inot the playoffs this season and win at least 10 games.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys- Over 9 wins
The 2020 season was over as soon as Dak Prescott broke his ankle. Dallas’ defense wasn’t great and without Prescott the offense had little firepower. With Prescott back, the offense can be dynamic. Prescott will have three quality receivers to utilize in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Ezekiel Elliot looks like he’s in the best shape in the last few years. The line needs to stay healthy, but if they can, there won’t be too many offenses that can outscore the Cowboys. In the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, the Cowboys selected Micah Parsons, who adds to a crowded linebacker room, but he will make an impact early. The late addition of Malik Hooker could really help the secondary. With a diviision that features no dominant team, the Cowboys have the talent to win it and get to the playoffs.
New York Giants- Under 7 wins
New York went 6-10 in 2020 and are one of the harder teams to predict for the 2021 season. Saquon Barkley returns from injury and Kenny Golladay was added at receiver. The offensive line will likely not be great and Daniel Jones turns the ball over too much. On defense, the Giants added Adoree Jackson and drafted Azeez Ojulari, but even a slight improvement won’t propel this team too far forward. If Jones plays like an average quarterback and Barkley plays a full season, they might be able to get to eight wins, but those are big question marks. The safe bet is the under.
Philadelphia Eagles- Under 6.5 wins
There is a new face of the franchise in Philadelphia, as Jalen Hurts takes over at quarterback. He’ll have his former teammate to target at wide receiver in DeVonta Smith and the Eagles never got around to trading Zach Ertz like the rumors suggested would happen this offseason. The offensive line should be decent, but there are some new faces who need to step up. Their defense ranked 20th in the league in points allowed per game, but they will likely take a step backwards this season as players age. The Eagles’ best hope for winning more than 6.5 games is that Hurts plays out of his mind and really hurts teams with his legs. That is a huge question mark and without receivers who have proven to get separation at the NFL level, it makes things tough.
Washington Football Team- Under 8.5 wins
Washington won the NFC East last season behind the great play of their defense. They allowed just 21.2 points per game and added Williams Jackson at corner this offseason, which should make them again one of the best in the league. The problem with the team is the quarterback position. They now have Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is fully capable of winning games for the team, but he does have some performances that will cost his team the game. The gunslinger will have weapons to utilize in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and running back Antonio Gibson, but he needs to focus on protecting the ball to help control the clock for that great defense. Fitzpatrick will make Washington competitive again, but it will be tough for the team to match last season with a tough schedule on the docket for this year.
NFC North
Chicago Bears- Over 7.5 wins
With Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles at quarterback, the Bears went 8-8 in 2020. If they start the best quarterback on their roster, who is rookie Justin Fields, they will have a few more wins than last year. Fields has a strong, decently accurate arm and is capable of running with the ball. The offense has the chance to really improve this season with him under center. David Montgomery can move the chains on the ground and Darnelly Mooney and Allen Robinson can pick up chunk yardage through the air. Khalil Mack will make things rough for opposing offenses, although the defense still needs some defensive backs to step up. Either way, there is enough talent on the team to win 10 games if Fields starts at quarterback.
Detroit Lions- Under 4.5 wins
Detroit is a mess right now. Jared Goff is at quarterback, which isn’t as bad as some teams have it, but still will be interesting to see how he does in a system that is not Sean McVay’s again. D’Andre Swift needs to stay on the field and the wide receiving core is lacking. The offensive line should be decent, but it will still be hard for the offense to move the ball consistently. Detroit gave up the most points in the league last year and that likely won’t change much after they didn’t make too many key additions. Last season, there were six teams with four or more losses. Even with an extra game this year, there will likely be at least a few teams with under four losses. Detroit is likely going to be one of those teams.
Green Bay Packers- Over 10 wins
There is no team who had a more eventful offseason than the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is in Green Bay to stay for at least the season after winning MVP last season. The biggest losses on offense are center Corey Linsley and running back Jamaal Williams, but the Packers should be able to cope without them. Their defense ranked 15th in scoring last season and that’s really all they need to do this year with a very similar unit. Things might be a little awkward in Green Bay, but it is hard to think they won’ at least get 10 wins this season.
Minnesota Vikings- Under 9 wins
Minnesota went 7-9 last season and they look like they are destined for about the same record in 2021. They have the same offensive threats as last season in Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, but they lost tight end Kyle Rudolph and tackle Riley Reiff. On defense they traded for and then traded away Yannick Ngakoue and really don’t have a great pass rusher opposite of Danielle Hunter. Signing cornerback Patrick Peterson might help a little, but there are still holes on the defense after they allowed 29.7 points per game last season.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons- Under 7.5 wins
After going 4-12 last season, it is hard to see the Falcons improving much in 2021. They traded away their best player, Julio Jones, who wanted to go somewhere he could win. That leaves Matt Ryan with newly drafted tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Calvin Ridley as great targets. They added Mike Davis at running back, who can be solid, but is far from a game-changer. Their offensive line still has holes on it and it isn’t likely that the defense will improve after ranking 19th in scoring last season. It is time for a rebuild in Atlanta.
Carolina Panthers- Under 7.5 wins
Teddy Bridgewater didn’t pan out for the Panthers last season. Now instead of drafting someone, they traded for Sam Darnold. Darnold hasn’t ever proven to be a good quarterback and will have a lot to prove. They replaced the talented Curtis Samuel with rookie Terrace Marshall as a pair with D.J. Moore. Christian McCaffrey returning from injury really helps the team, but Darnold is the x-factor. If he plays like he did in New York, the team will have trouble scoring. The young defense ranked 18th in scoring, but if the offense struggles, it will be tough for them as well. Carolina will likely match their win total from last year (five), but they will regret not taking a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
New Orleans Saints- Under 9 wins
The biggest question mark for the Saints is the quarterback position. Will the scrambler Taysom Hill or the pocket-passer Jameis Winston get the nod? Either way, Sean Payton has his work cut out for him. Add on the fact that Michael Thomas doesn’t seem happy in his situation and things just don’t seem right after Drew Brees‘ retirement. Alvin Kamara figures to get a lot of work to aid the new quarterback, whoever that might be. The defense has improved over the years and only allowed 20.9 points per game in 2020. They’ll have to carry them, but with a tough schedule and no quarterback named yet, it looks like the Saints will struggle to get to nine wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Over 12 wins
It is very rare for a Super Bowl winning team to bring almost everyone back, but that’s exactly what the Buccaneers did. Tom Brady will always give them a shot to compete and the offensive line should continue to play well in their second year together. There isn’t much more to ask for in terms of skill position players, but they added running back Giovanni Bernard, which makes the offense a little more terrifying. The defense ranked seventh in scoring last season then added defensive end Joe Tryon in the draft to add to it. It is always hard to repeat, but this team has the talent to win more than 12 games.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals- Over 8.5 wins
Last year the Cardinals won eight games, showing that they were a team on the rise. They had a second-year quarterback in Kyler Murray, who took a step forward in 2020. The Cardinals also had newly-acquired wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Now they are adding A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore into the fold. The offense has more than enough weapons to be successful and they also acquired Rodney Hudson to play center as well. Their biggest offseason move was the trade for J.J. Watt, who really bolsters their defense. With Chandler Jones and Watt rushing the passer the defense should end up ranking in the top 10 after finishing 12th in scoring last season. Isaiah Simmons, if used properly, and Zaven Collins are impact linebackers and even though the Cardinals lost Patrick Peterson, they did add Malcolm Butler. With a good safety in Budda Baker, the defense looks good. It will be hard to win a tough division, but the Cardinals should be able to get to around double-digit wins.
Los Angeles Rams- Over 10.5 wins
The Rams won 10 games in 2020 and decided to make a blockbuster trade in the offseason. Matthew Stafford will be the new quarterback and brings some arm strength that Jared Goff couldn’t match. Even though they lost Cam Akers to injury, the Rams have enough back on offense to really light up some scoreboars. On defense they have two of the best players in the game in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They ranked second in scoring defense last year and that shouldn’t change much this year. Los Angeles should expect to win close to 13 games this season, if Stafford stays healthy.
San Francisco 49ers- Over 10.5 wins
If it weren’t for injuries, the 49ers wouldn’t have won just six games last season. While they say Trey Lance won’t be the starting quarterback, he is the one that probably gives them the best chance at winning. Kyle Shanahan knows how to make the most out of a dual-threat quarterback, as he coached Robert Griffin III successfully in his rookie year. The running game could be even better for the 49ers than it has been in the last few years. Defensively, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are supremely talented players to build around. Richard Sherman is gone as a defensive back, but there is no reason this team can’t improve on giving up 24.4 points per game. It will be a tough schedule, but the offensive firepower that Lance brings could really help this team.
Seattle Seahawks- Over 10 wins
Could every team in the division hit the over? With an extra game on the schedule and the talent in the NFC West, it may just happen. The Seahawks don’t have the best offensive line, but that hasn’t stopped Russell Wilson before. With the emergence of DK Metcalf and the consistency of Tyler Lockett, he has some good weapons. Having Chris Carson back from injury to carry the rock should help tremendously. The defense was average last season and may have some trouble after losing Shaq Griffin to the Jaguars in free agency. Even so, with Wilson and Pete Carroll back, the Seahawks should be competing for a playoff spot.
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