Every year there are some players that outplay their draft selection. There are others that make people question why a player got selected as high as they did. What if teams could go back and fix their selections? How would their teams look today if they made the right choice Here are some instances where teams select the better player with their selection that still fills a need and what it could have done for the team.
The rules for this exercise is that players were swapped out with players that either
Were selected within the next 32 picks
Play the same position, but were selected much later
Fills a bigger need for them than the previously selected player did
The New York Giants take Laremy Tunsil over Eli Apple 10th overall, Michael Thomas over Sterling Shepard 40th overall, and Justin Simmons over Darian Thompson 71st overall
The New York Giants had an opportunity to select three elite players with their first three selections in the 2016 NFL Draft. Instead only one of those players finished their rookie contract with the Giants and is still with the team.
After a photo of Laremy Tunsil was released of him smoking marijuana through a gas mask on Draft Day he dropped in the draft a lot later than he was expected to go. Tunsil was still on the board at 10th overall for the New York Giants to scoop him up. But the Giants drafted cornerback Eli Apple with the pick because they had drafted tackle Erik Flowers with their first round selection the year before. Tunsil fell to the Dolphins and became the best young left tackle in football. This past year Tunsil made his first Pro Bowl. Flowers continued to struggle and was eventually benched and replaced before the end of his first contract. Many thought Apple was overdrafted on draft night and that is confirmed today. He primarily played in the nickel for the Giants and struggled to play to his draft selection. He was traded to the Saints for a fourth and seventh round pick and is currently on his third team. If the Giants drafted Tunsil they could have moved Flowers to the right side where he could have had more success and had their left tackle of the future. The Giants have had questions at left tackle since. This past draft the Giants drafted Andrew Thomas fourth overall who hopefully will be their left tackle of the future.
Sterling Shepard is the only player from the Giants 2016 Draft that is still on the team. He is also the only player from their draft that played through the full four years with the team. Many believe he is the teams number one receiver. But the Giants had an opportunity to draft arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, Michael Thomas. During his time in New Orleans, Thomas is a three-time Pro Bowler, two-time First-Team All-Pro, and broke the record for most receptions in a single season this past year. Imagine pairing Thomas with Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz. The Giants would have the best receiving core in football right now if that pick was made.
Darian Thompson wasn’t the full-time starter at safety for the Giants until his second year in the league and the following season he was cut and replaced by undrafted journeyman Curtis Riley. Since then he has bounced around practice squads and is currently a depth player for the Dallas Cowboys. The next safety to come off the board was Justin Simmons. Simmons currently is one of the best defensive players on the Denver Broncos and was a Second-Team All-Pro this past season. The secondary of Simmons, Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could have shut down offenses.
If the Giants made these picks they possibly go farther than the first round of their playoff run in 2016-17 and aren’t finishing at the bottom of the league every year like that have the past few seasons.
The New York Jets Jaylon Smith over Darron Lee with the 20th Overall pick
Before the 2015-16 college football season ended Jaylon Smith was far and away the best linebacker that was going to be a part of the draft. But during his bowl game against Ohio State Smith tore his ACL and LCL. Many were unsure if Smith would recover or ever play football again. Then after concerns about Myles Jack‘s knee came up Darron Lee became the first linebacker off the board with the New York Jets. Lee was good but not great for the Jets and was eventually replaced by CJ Mosley and traded to the Kansas City Chiefs for a sixth-round pick.
The Dallas Cowboys surprised most taking Smith early in the second round, but the risk paid off. After taking a year off to recover Smith eventually cracked the starting lineup at middle linebacker. Since then he has developed into the player many thought he would be before the injury which is one of the fastest linebackers in football and a top 10 player at his position. If the Jets had taken Smith instead of Lee he could have been an extremely young leader in that locker room and one of their best players. Plus the money spent on Mosley could have been used to get Sam Darnold more help.
The Cleveland Browns select Tyreek Hill over Corey Coleman (15th), Richardo Louis (114th) or Jordan Payton (154th)
After trading down a few times the Browns had 14 draft picks in 2016. The team used four of the picks to select wide receivers. The Browns took Corey Coleman in the first, Richard Lous in the fourth and Jordan Payton and Rashard Higgins in the fifth. Out of the four only Higgins is still on the roster. One of the best wide receivers in the league was selected in the fifth round as well after Coleman, Louis, and Payton. That receiver was Tyreek Hill.
Hill is regarded as the fastest receiver in football and deserves a lot of credit as to why the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season. He is a two-time Pro Bowler, three-time All-Pro, and a member of the 2010s All-Decade Team. While Coleman was traded to the Buffalo Bills for a seventh-round pick after injuries and not receiving the reps in practice he thought he deserved. He is currently on his fourth team the New York Giants and has to compete to make the roster and maybe be the team’s number four receiver. Louis is the Dolphins’ fifth or sixth receiver on the depth chart. Payton only caught one pass in his NFL career and hasn’t played since 2017. So if the Browns took a chance on Hill despite his off the field issues instead of selecting any of these three receivers there could possibly be a duo of Hill and Jarvis Landry in Cleveland. This means instead of trading for Odell Beckham Jr. the Browns could have used that first-round pick in 2019 on a left tackle which they desperately needed like Andre Dillard.
The Pittsburgh Steelers select Xavien Howard over Artie Burns with the 25th Overall pick
It was no secret during the 2016 NFL Draft that the Pittsburgh Steelers wanted to address the cornerback position early. After a grueling playoff game against each other, division-rival Cincinnati Bengals selected the last cornerback that many viewed with a first-round grade, William Jackson III, one pick before the Steelers. This caused the Steelers to scramble and they ended up taking Artie Burns who was seen as a project and many thought was a second-round player.
Burns struggled to stay in the starting lineup for the Pittsburgh Steelers because he just wasn’t very good. He just hit the market this past offseason and will have to compete for playing time as a member of the Chicago Bears. The next cornerback to come off the board who seen as a project as well but many thought he had a lot of upside. That cornerback was Xavien Howard who was selected by the Miami Dolphins in the second round. Howard is arguably the best player on the Miami Dolphins right now. He was a Pro Bowler and Second-Team All-Pro in 2018. Many believe Howard is one of the best cornerbacks in football and the Dolphins paid him as such last offseason. If the Steelers had selected Howard over Burns the Steelers defense would undoubtedly be the best in football last season pairing Howard with Joe Haden on the outside and could have snuck the Steelers into the playoffs last season.
The Dallas Cowboys outbid the Denver Broncos and trade up to select Paxton Lynch with the 26th Overall pick
After Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the next best quarterback prospect in the 2016 NFL Draft was Paxton Lynch from Memphis. Knowing that at the end of the first round teams would attempt to trade for Lynch the Seattle Seahawks were willing to trade the pick to the highest bidder. The two teams that were interested in Lynch were the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos. The Cowboys offered their second-round pick (34) and fourth-round pick (101). But the Broncos offered their first-round pick (32) and third-round pick (94). The Seahawks took the Broncos offer and John Elway took Lynch away from Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. The Seahawks were willing to accept the Cowboys second and third round (67) selections for the pick but they declined.
Soon after the draft, Jones had regret wishing he would have ‘overpaid’ for Lynch but that ended up being the smarter decision on his part. Lynch only started four games in the two years he was in Denver and has been bouncing around practice squads for some time now. However, the Cowboys used those second and third-round picks on Jaylon Smith and Maliek Collins. Smith is one of the best inside linebackers in football and Collins was a reliable starter for Dallas before signing with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason. Not selecting Lynch also opened up the Dallas Cowboys to draft Dak Prescott in the fourth round, who has been their starting quarterback since he was drafted.
If Tony Romo went down the way he did during the 2016 season, would Lynch have brought the Cowboys to the playoffs with a 13-3 record like Prescott? It is not very likely he would have. The Cowboys would likely still have instability at the quarterback position post-Tony Romo era and would not have the talented roster they have today. The Dallas Cowboys 2016 Draft class is considered one of the best of all time because of the number of starters that came out of that group. While Denver could have selected Chris Jones, Myles Jack, or Derrick Henry with the 32nd overall pick.
The Seattle Seahawks select Derrick Henry over Germain Ifedi with the 32nd Overall pick
After the 2015-16 season, the Seattle Seahawks said goodbye to one of the most essential pieces to their offense over the last couple of seasons to Marshawn Lynch due to retirement (for the first time). The Seahawks didn’t overreact and had the intention of going into that season with the committee of Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael taking the carries. The team decided to address its offensive line in the first round taking Germain Ifedi out of Texas A&M.
Ifedi did not play well during his time in Seattle and their backfield was a mess until 2017 seventh-round pick Chris Carson emerged as a legitimate starting running back for the team. But Seattle had an opportunity to select a running back in the first round whose playing style and impact on the field mirrored Lynch. That running back is Derrick Henry who fell to the Tennessee Titans in the second round after a Heisman winning season at Alabama. For the past couple of seasons, Henry has been the most dominant at the end of the year which would have been great for Seattle’s postseason runs. This past season Henry led the league in rushing which earned him a Pro Bowl appearance and Second-Team All-Pro. If Henry were on the Seahawks offense today featuring Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Greg Olsen they would no doubt be Super Bowl contenders out of the NFC.
The Tennessee Titans select Chris Jones over Kevin Dodd at 33rd Overall and Yannick Ngakoue over Austin Johnson at 43rd Overall
After trading out of the first overall selection in 2016 the Tennessee Titans received multiple draft picks including two second-rounders that year. The team spent the first two of their three second-round picks that year on edge rusher Kevin Dodd and defensive tackle Austin Johnson. But if the Titans selected differently they could have added two of the best young defensive tackles and edge rushers in the league in Chris Jones and Yannick Ngakoue.
Dodd was considered a first-round pick by many and it surprised most to see him fall to the second round. He played 3-4 outside linebacker for the Titans which was an odd fit, because he was a pure 4-3 defensive end. He did not rush the passer standing up during his time at Clemson. The awkward fit showed as Dodd only played two years for the Titans and only recorded 12 tackles and 1 sack during that time before he was released in 2018. Dodd never played in the NFL again. Johnson had more success, but was not very flashy and more of a borderline starter at times. Johnson was a run stuffer who was solid at best.
With the selection, they used to select Dodd the Titans could have chosen Jones who was a second-team All-Pro in 2018 after racking up 15.5 sacks and a Pro Bowler this past year. While with the selection they used to select Johnson the Titans could have taken Ngakoue who has 37.5 sacks in four years and went to the Pro Bowl in 2017. If the Titans selected Jones and Ngakoue instead they very well could have upset the Kansas City Chiefs last season in the AFC Championship and possibly won the Super Bowl.
The New York Jets select Dak Prescott over Christian Hackenberg with the 51st Overall pick
In 2015-16 the New York Jets had their best season in recent memory going 10-6 carried by veterans Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The team just missed the playoffs and was looking to try and reload and try and make a playoff run before the team got too old. But after the season Fitzpatrick’s contract was up and the team attempted to lowball Fitzpatrick, only offering him a three-year $24 million deal after he set a franchise record with 31 touchdown passes. He declined the offer and going into the draft the Jets had a question mark at quarterback. The team panicked and took Christian Hackenberg it the second round. Hackenberg was a massive reach for the Jets, there was speculation that he could be the fourth quarterback drafted that year but the highest he was going to get drafted was the fourth round.
The Jets were in need of a quarterback that could play right away if they weren’t able to come to an agreement with Fitzpatrick. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might have only been drafted in the fourth round but he was thrown right into action for the Cowboys when Tony Romo went down with an injury during the preseason. Prescott went 13-3 his rookie season, won Rookie of the Year and appeared at the Pro Bowl. Could Prescott sustain that level of success if he was drafted by the Jets? Many had Prescott ranked higher than Hackenberg before the draft and Prescott would have been a solid second-round pick by the Jets. The only reason why he fell to the fourth round was because of a DUI he had before the draft. Prescott could have likely been the Jets long term answer at quarterback like they thought they had in Hackenberg. Instead, Hackenberg never took a snap for the New York Jets.
Other What-If Scenarios:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Xavien Howard over Vernon Hargreaves with the 11th Overall pick
The Oakland Raiders select Keanu Neal over Karl Joseph with the 14th Overall pick
The Washington Redskins select Tyreek Hill over Josh Doctson with the 22nd Overall pick
The Minnesota Vikings select Michael Thomas over Laquon Treadwell with the 23rd Overall pick
The Denver Broncos trade up and select Dak Prescott over Paxton Lynch with the 26th Overall pick
The San Fransisco 49ers trade up and select Jaylon Smith over Joshua Garnett with the 28th Overall pick
The Arizona Cardinals select Chris Jones over Robert Nkemdiche with the 29th Overall pick
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Yannick Ngakoue over Noah Spence (39) or Roberto Aguayo (59) with one of their second round selections
The Buffalo Bills trades up and selects Deion Jones over Reggie Ragland with the 41st Overall pick
The Oakland Raiders select Matthew Judon over Jihad Ward with the 44th Overall pick
The Houston Texans select Cody Whitehair over Nick Martin with the 50th Overall pick
The Pittsburgh Steelers select Kevin Byard over Sean Davis with the 58th Overall pick
The Green Bay Packers select Tyreek Hill over Trevor Davis with the 163rd Overall pick
More NFL Draft What If’s:
2013 NFL Draft
2014 NFL Draft
2015 NFL Draft
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