What a great bounce back week for my NFL picks. Week three had me worried that I was in for a rare, long and painful season of picking NFL games but after having a great week I see that I just had a bad week. We all have them at some point. One of the biggest surprises last week is that the Patriots were shut out at home. Never did I think they would be shut out after how they played in the first three weeks of the season. The positive note for the Patriots is that they went 3-1 without Tom Brady and now that he is coming back, the rest of the AFC should be a bit frightened.
The Los Angeles Rams have won three straight games and at 3-1 on the season. They sit in first place in the NFC West. Few, if any, saw this coming. I expected the Cardinals to struggle this season, (NFC West Preview) but I expected the Seahawks to still be the best team in this division. Only a quarter of the season has passed, but it is still shocking to see the Rams at 3-1.
This week features a few intriguing games and four teams will be on a bye week. Those teams on a bye are The Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks. Here are the week five NFL picks brought to you by Hagan’s Haus.
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 36-24
Thursday Night
Arizona 20 @ San Fransisco 24 : This is a very tough game for me to pick. Arizona is not the team most experts thought they would be. Carson Palmer will be out due to concussion protocol and Drew Stanton will start in his place. Drew Stanton has never thrown a touchdown to Larry Fitzgerald in 51 targets. If you can’t get the ball in the end zone with an all-time great like Fitzgerald, then something is wrong. The 49ers will be at home and I think they get the win in this Thursday night match-up.
Sunday Morning
Houston 10 @ Minnesota 23: The Minnesota Vikings defense is for real. Over the past two weeks they have held Kelvin Benjamin to zero catches and held Odell Beckham Jr. to just three catches for 23 yards. The defense in four games is holding opponents to 12.5 points per game, which makes it easy for this team to win. Sam Bradford has protected the football and it is leading to wins. Houston has nothing special on offense to give the Vikings problem, therefore the Vikings defense will reign supreme again.
Washington 23 @ Baltimore 21: This should be an interesting game. Two teams who aren’t that good. Washington will not impress me as long as Kirk Cousins is the quarterback. Baltimore has been fortunate with its schedule up to this point. Neither of these teams will make the playoffs and because of that I have to pick the Redskins because if the Ravens end up 4-1 they may prove me wrong and make a run towards the playoffs.
New England 34 @ Cleveland 17: Cleveland, I am so sorry that Tom Brady’s first game back is against you. The Browns have suffered enough over the years and shouldn’t have to go through this. An anonymous defensive assistant in the NFL was quoted saying “Thanks to Roger Goodall, Tom Brady is going to kill us all”. Tom Brady throws for 300 plus and three touchdowns in this one to make a statement.
Philadelphia 27 @ Detroit 21: Philly is much better than most people anticipated, including myself. Detroit is the same Detroit they have been for the past 50 years. They won’t make the playoffs and their defense is pretty awful. Expect Carson Wentz to have a rookie moment at some point but it shouldn’t happen in this game. Philly’s defense will frustrate Matthew Stafford in this one and Philly will remain unbeaten.
Chicago 24 @ Indianapolis 37: Chicago finally got a win against the Lions, a team that has already beaten Indianapolis. The Colts still have a horrible offensive line causing Andrew Luck to get hit more than a franchise quarterback should. Even though their offensive line is pathetic this isn’t your father’s or grandfather’s Bears defense. Andrew Luck will pick them apart and have his best game of the year.
Tennessee 17 @ Miami 20: Both teams sit at 1-3 and are likely heading for top 10 picks. They both also have a very solid defense but lack offensive fire power. Mariota is in a sophomore slump and Ryan Tannehill looks like he should have stayed a wide receiver. The nod in this one goes to Miami for the simple fact of being at home.
New York (J) 23 @ Pittsburgh 34: Throw out the Steelers game against the Eagles, it was an anomaly. That was one bad game, it is not their identity. The Steelers showed how great they really are last week against the Chiefs. Big Ben was breathtaking in how he played. The Jets will not go anywhere with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. This game should be an easy win for the Steelers at home.
Sunday Afternoon
Atlanta 13 @ Denver 24: The world is salivating over Julio Jones and the Falcons offense right now. Listen to Aaron Rodgers and “Relax”. The Falcons started out 5-1 last season before ultimately finishing 8-8. They are looking good now but they will come back down to earth against Denver. Denver’s ferocious defense will dominate this game and the Broncos will stay undefeated.
Cincinnati 27 @ Dallas 24: In Dak I trust. Just not against the Bengals. If the Cowboys find a way to win this game then the league will be put on notice. If Dak can lead the Cowboys to a big win like this one then the Cowboys need to treat Tony Romo the same way the Patriots treated Drew Bledsoe when he got hurt and Tom Brady took over. The Bengals will win this game and look for a 150 yard game for AJ Green.
Buffalo 27 @ Los Angeles 21 : The Bills just impressed the entire league by shutting out the Patriots at home. The Rams have impressed the league by just being 3-1 up to this point. Rex Ryan has sent a message to his team because they have been performing great since starting out 0-2. Tyrod Taylor will give this defense some trouble and the Bills continue their hot streak.
San Diego 31 @ Oakland 35: The Raiders are back! Derek Carr has been playing great and this offense is carrying the team. The defense will catch up soon and when it does look out, because this team will get dangerous. The Chargers have led in every game this year but they can’t finish. They may jump out to a 14 point lead in this game but the Raiders will surge back and win a shootout.
Sunday Night
New York (G) 29 @ Green Bay 28: This should be a great game. The Packers are not as good as people think they are. They struggled to beat the Jaguars and let the Lions comeback to scare them. The Giants need to get Odell Beckham Jr. focused on football. He has yet to score a touchdown this season but will score twice in this one to upset the Packers in Lambeau.
Monday Night
Tampa Bay 26 @ Carolina 34: The Panthers will get back on track this week
. They are too talented and Cam is going to play mad if he is cleared. This defense also has a lot to prove after getting embarrassed by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Jameis is playing better than his numbers indicate. He just has to protect the football better but the Panthers will force at least two turnovers in this game and Cam Newton will put on a show on Monday Night Football.
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