It isn’t fair to evaluate fully evaluate a draft selection until a player has three seasons in the league. Every year there are some players that outplay their draft selection. There are others that make people question why a player got selected as high as they did. What if teams could go back and fix their selections? How would their teams look today if they made the right choice Here are some instances where teams select the better player with their selection that still fills a need and what it could have done for the team.
The rules for this exercise is that players were swapped out with players that either
Were selected within the next 32 picks
Play the same position, but were selected much later
Fills a bigger need for them than the previously selected player did
New York Giants select Quenton Nelson over Saquon Barkley 2nd overall and Nick Chubb over Will Hernandez 35th overall
The New York Giants did very well during the 2018 NFL Draft. They added multiple starters and players who make contributions every weekend. Their first selection Saquon Barkley was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowler in 2018, but since then has dealt with multiple injuries. While the Giants’ second selection guard Will Hernandez has developed into an extremely solid starter on the interior of their offensive line.
If New York would have played their cards right they could have had two elite players playing in the roles Barkley and Henandez occupy. Since getting drafted four selections after Barkley, Quenton Nelson has not only been one of the best offensive linemen in football, but he is a top-10 player in the entire league. Nelson set the foundation for the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line to be as dominant as it has been over the last few seasons. In Nelson’s first year in the league, Andrew Luck and the Colts looked like a Super Bowl contender. Luck also finished that year second in MVP votes. He has continued that level of play ever since and looks like a player who could very well receive a gold jacket in Canton Ohio when it is all said and done.
Going into the 2021-22 season there are a lot of questions surrounding Saquon Barkley and whether he will return to how he looked his rookie season after multiple major injuries. These questions have brought up the conversation about whether the Giants should expect to extend Barkley once his contract is up. Barkley was a great addition to an offense that needed a major spark since Eli Manning was on the verge of retirement. However, it seems extremely unlikely that Barkley will be able to sustain a level of dominant play for as long as Nelson will. Modern-day running backs usually hit a major decline within their first six seasons in the league, while offensive lineman as talented as Nelson could play at an All-Pro level consistently for over a decade.
If the Giants would have selected Nelson in the first round, they could have still landed a great running back in the second round to fill that void in Nick Chubb. The Cleveland Browns took Chubb right after the Giants took Hernandez with the 34th overall pick. Since taking over for Carlos Hyde in the middle of his rookie season Chubb has been one of the best running backs in the NFL. In nine starts (16 games overall) Chubb rushed for 996 yards and eight touchdowns. He followed an outstanding rookie year with 1,494 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in sixteen starts. That performance led to Chubb’s first Pro Bowl. Chubb made his second Pro Bowl this past season when he rushed for 1,067 yards and a career-high 12 touchdowns in 12 games. Chubb was a major reason why the Browns went 11-5 and made the playoffs this past season.
In Chubb, the Giants may not have gotten the pass-catcher Barkley is. However, Chubb is arguably as dominant between the tackle and not to mention more durable than Barkley has been. An offense lead by Nick Chubb running behind an offensive line headlined by Quinton Nelson would have been enough to get the Giants into the playoffs this past season and may make the Giants a legitimate contender depending on how the rest of their roster would have worked out.
New York Jets trade up and select Josh Allen over Sam Darnold 3rd overall
The headlines for the 2018 NFL Draft were based around the five quarterbacks who could have potentially heard their name on the first night of the draft. All five quarterbacks were selected within the first round, but the biggest question surrounding them was which quarterback was going to go first.
Early on in the draft process, it appeared that Josh Rosen was the favorite to be QB1. Then for a majority of the predraft process, it seemed to be a toss-up between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen. Darnold was a pocket passer out of a major program that seemed like a safer pick. However, Allen has the size, arm strength, and mobility to be the next star quarterback. The biggest knock on Allen was the fact that he played at Wyoming and that he was considered inaccurate during his time there. The Browns ended up taking Heisman winner Baker Mayfield leaving the decision between Darnold and Allen to the Jets who made a predraft deal to land the third overall pick.
New York was first linked to Josh Allen before the 2017 NFL Draft by (at the time Bleacher Report Reporter) Matt Miller when it was rumored that Allen may decare. Allen decided to go back to Wyoming for another season and the Jets decided to go with the best player available approach, take Jamal Adams in the first round, and wait one more season to address the quarterback position.
As the draft got closer it seemed almost guaranteed that the Browns would select Darnold and the Jets were going to take Allen third overall. But when reports came out that the Browns were going to select Mayfield on the day of the draft. The Jets were tasked with picking between Allen and Darnold and went with the player that was the consensus number one quarterback on most boards in Darnold. In three seasons with the Jets, Darnold was a below-average quarterback in most statistics. New York did a poor job of supplying Darnold with enough support around him to succeed. The Jets had a 13-25 when Darnold was under center. After landing the second overall pick in this year’s draft, the New Jets administration decided to trade Darnold to the Panthers for a package of draft picks and select Zach Wilson to be their quarterback going forward.
Allen landed with the Jets division rival Buffalo Bills after they traded up from seventh overall to select him. When he became Buffalo’s starter he showed the flaws that many saw he had as a prospect which was his inaccuracy. During his rookie season, he had a 10-12 touchdown to interception ratio and only completed 52.8% of his passes. However, he displayed his ability to carry the team’s offense by rushing the football himself by rushing for 631 yards and eight touchdowns. The following season Allen improved as a passer throwing more touchdowns than interceptions, improving his completion percentage, and leading the Bills to a playoff birth. This past season Allen almost doubled his career-high in touchdown passes, improved his completion percentage by more than 10%, and led the Bills to the AFC Championship game. Allen also finished the season second in MVP votes.
If the Jets selected Allen instead of Darnold in 2018 it may have not been pretty in year one, but he would have shown improvement over time for the Jets to retain trust in him long term and build around him long-term. It is unlikely that the Jets would have had the two playoff births the Bills had the previous two years, but the Jets would have surrounded him with the pieces and coaching staff he needs to succeed this offseason. That would have led for the Jets to take Penei Sewell, Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts in this past draft, or even trade down to a team needy for a quarterback and use that capital to surround Allen with more talent.
Denver Broncos select Quenton Nelson over Bradley Chubb 5th overall
The Denver Broncos made a great selection when they took Bradley Chubb fifth overall. Their mindset was to pair future Hall of Famer Von Miller with an elite young edge rusher like they tried to do with former first-round pick Shane Ray who did not pan out well in the NFL. Denver won the Super Bowl during the 2015-16 season led by the league’s number one defense and an aging Peyton Manning who did enough to keep Denver in games. Outside of their outstanding secondary, The No-Fly Zone, Denver’s most impressive unit was the pair of edge rushers that they had rushing the passer every down. Along with Miller, Denver had former Dallas Cowboy and future Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware both putting up double-digit sack seasons together. John Elway must have believed that pairing Miller with the number one pass rusher in the draft class Bradley Chubb would help Denver return to what made them the Super Bowl Champions.
Chubb’s best season came his rookie year when he had twelve sacks and started all 16 games. The next season Chubb was limited to only four games because of a torn ACL. He had only one sack that season. This past season Denver was also robbed of the combination of Miller and Chubb because Miller had suffered a season-ending ankle injury before the season even started. Chubb stepped up in a major way putting up 7.5 sacks in 14 games. His performance landed Chubb in his first Pro Bowl this past season.
Outside of the injury his sophomore season, Chubb has had a very solid career and still has room to grow and develop. But Denver did pass on Quenton Nelson who was picked one selection later and looks like he could very well be a Hall of Famer early in his career. It isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities for Chubb to be an elite player at his position one day. But for right now it appears that Denver passed on the best player available when they took Chubb over Nelson.
Arizona Cardinals select Jaire Alexander over Josh Rosen 10th overall
The Arizona Cardinals were at a weird point before the 2018 NFL Draft. Their roster that went 13-3 a few seasons prior got old very quickly. Starting quarterback Carson Palmer and head coach Bruce Arians decided to retire which sent the team from the middle of the pack to a full rebuild. Arians was replaced by Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and the team needed to find a replacement for Palmer.
They made the less than wise move of cutting Pro Bowl defensive back Tyrann Mathieu in order to sign veteran journeyman quarterback Sam Bradford to a two-year contract worth up to $20 million. They also added veteran quarterback Mike Glennon to a 2 year $8 million contract. Despite adding two veteran quarterbacks to their roster they traded their first, third, and fifth-round picks to move up and draft Josh Rosen.
Arizona thought Rosen could be their quarterback of the future. When Bradford had a brutal start to the season the Cardinals replaced him with their first-round selection. Rosen started for the Cardinals for the rest of the season. It was obvious that Rosen was not ready to play and that he couldn’t do much with what Arizona had given him to work with. Rosen finished the season with 2,278 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The team went 3-13 and landed the first overall pick. They decided to fire Wilks and replace him with former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury who notoriously ran an air raid offense. Rosen was not viewed as a great fit for this offense and not as great as Heisman winner Kyler Murray.
The Cardinals took Murray first overall and proceeded to put Rosen on the trade block. By the end of the second round of the 2019 draft, the Cardinals moved Rosen to the Miami Dolphins for the 62nd overall pick in the second round in 2019 and a fifth-round pick in 2020. Miami did not benefit much from that deal because Rosen played even worse during his six games (three starts). Arizona selected Andy Isabella with the second-round pick acquired in the deal and sent that fifth back to Miami for Kenyan Drake at the 2019-20 trade deadline. Isabella has not been able to crack the starting lineup and appears to be getting lower on the depth chart every season. While Drake was great for the Cardinals during the year and a half they had him, but now is a member of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Many extremely talented players were taken after Rosen was in 2018. Seven Pro Bowlers were taken after Rosen in the first round that year including All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick who was selected with the next selection and could have filled the void left by Tyrann Mathieu. Some may believe that the Cardinals could regret taking future MVP Lamar Jackson in the first round, but if they had done so they may have not been able to land an elite defensive prospect from the 2019 NFL Draft like Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, or Devin White. The prospect Arizona may regret not taking the most is cornerback Jaire Alexander.
The Green Bay Packers made Jaire Alexander the second cornerback selected in the 2018 NFL Draft. Three years later there is a case for Alexander as the second-best cornerback in the league. This past season Alexander was voted to his first Pro Bowl and was named Second Team All-Pro. He was a lockdown corner this past year and has supplanted himself as one of the league’s elite cornerbacks.
Arizona could use a player like Alexander in their secondary. Last year former All-Pro Patrick Peterson did not look like the player he has been for the majority of his career. Now Peterson signed a deal with the Minnesota Vikings and the Cardinal’s starting cornerback group features Malcolm Butler, Robert Alford, Byron Murphy, and Darqueze Dennard. Besides Murphy who is a talented young slot corner, the Cardinals cornerback group are veterans who are likely past their prime. They could all be solid second cornerbacks, but Arizona is lacking a true number one cornerback to comfortably have shadow a number one receiver.
Alexander could have started his career opposite Peterson and eventually developed into the number one corner. Arizona then would have been extremely comfortable moving off Peterson and possibly could have even traded him at some point. They also wouldn’t have had to move up for Alexander either because he wasn’t selected until after their original draft pick at 15th overall. Arizona could have had the opportunity to take skilled offensive players like Michael Gallup, Orlando Brown Jr., or Mark Andrews with the third-round pick they gave up in the Rosen deal.
The important part of the Alexander selection is that they likely would have been in the same position to land the first overall pick and Kyler Murray with him in the secondary. Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon would not have won more games than Josh Rosen did. Then the Cardinals could have hired Kliff Kingsbury and added Kyler Murray with the first overall pick without giving up on the first-round pick from the year prior.
New Orleans Saints trade up and select Lamar Jackson over Marcus Davenport 14th overall
In the 2017 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints set up the framework for them to be Super Bowl favorites in the NFC for the next three seasons. After losing in the divisional round to the Minnesota Vikings off a missed tackle on a 61-yard touchdown known as the Minnesota Miracle, the Saints made an aggressive trade in the first round of the draft during the 2018 offseason.
New Orleans traded their first-round pick, a fifth-round pick, and their first-round pick in 2019 to move up thirteen spots. Usually, when a team makes an aggressive move in the first round like that they are going after a quarterback, especially if they are willing to trade their first-round pick the following year. While New Orleans was on the clock both national television broadcasts made the connection that New Orleans may have moved up for the fifth quarterback that could go in the first round, Lamar Jackson. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said on NFL Network’s broadcast after the trade was made that there was a good chance it could be for Jackson or pass rusher Marcus Davenport.
Shockingly the Saints went with Davenport over Jackson. That is not a major knock-on Davenport who was viewed as a developmental pass rusher with high upside. It was more shocking that the Saints would give up two first-round selections in order to take him. He has been what the draft experts thought he would be. In his first season, Davenport played a rotational role and finished the season with 4.5 sacks. Davenport did not start a game for the Saints until his second year where he started all 13 games he played in and had six sacks. In year three instead of taking a huge leap forward his teammate, Trey Hendrickson did just that and beat out Davenport for the job. Hendrickson led the team with 13.5 sacks last year. While Davenport had 1.5 sacks in 11 games and only started one game. Despite missing 11 games, only starting in 14 out of 37 career games, and only having 12 sacks in three seasons the Saints retained confidence in Davenport picking up his fifth-year option this offseason.
Lamar Jackson fell all the way to the last selection of the first round. The Baltimore Ravens traded their second, fourth, and 2019 second-round pick to get back into the first round and take Jackson. Baltimore knew they needed a spark on offense and got just that in Jackson. After the team started 4-5 the Ravens started Jackson at quarterback and ended the season going 6-1 sneaking into the postseason. The following year Jackson led the Ravens to 12 straight wins in a 14-2 regular season. He took home the league MVP, was voted to the Pro Bowl, and was named First-Team All-Pro after leading the league in touchdown passes (36) and breaking the record for most rushing yards in a single season by a quarterback (1,206). Jackson had a great third year in the league as well picking up his first playoff win and becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to have multiple 1,000+ yard rushing seasons.
A lot would have changed around the league if the Saints took Jackson instead of Davenport. In all likelihood, Jackson’s addition would not have changed much about New Orlean’s 2018-19 season and how it ended. The biggest change that year would be who was in their quarterback room. Since Drew Brees, Taysom Hill, and Jackson would already be in the quarterback room, there wouldn’t have been a huge need for New Orleans to trade a 2020 third-round pick for Teddy Bridgewater. New Orleans could have used that third-round pick on another player who could contribute to this team. Brees would have been the team’s starter, while Lamar Jackson would come onto the field in package plays similar to how they use Hill. Then Hill would be free to be a swiss army knife and used as a pass-catcher or rusher.
New Orleans would have had an interesting decision to make that offseason. If they were comfortable with the development of Jackson they could have made the uncomfortable decision to move off of New Orleans’ legend Drew Brees and trading him. They could have gotten at least a second-round pick a trade package for Brees. If Denver traded their second and fourth-round picks to New Orleans for Brees that year the Saints could have drafted future Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins with Denver’s pick then used their second-round pick on a future Pro Bowl receiver like A.J. Brown or D.K. Metcalf.
The insane part to think about is that there is a solid chance New Orleans could have waited until their original selection of pick #27 to take Jackson. If they would have done that their roster would have been even more loaded because they would also have their 2019 first-round pick. So hypothetically the 2019-20 New Orleans Saints could have featured Lamar Jackson, Montez Sweat, Elgton Jenkins, A.J. Brown, and Jamel Dean on their loaded roster. It’s hard to imagine that team not winning the Super Bowl during that season or the following one.
As many thought during the pre-draft process, Jackson would have been an ideal fit for Sean Payton’s offense in New Orleans. The Saints would be worrying about extending their potentially Super Bowl-winning and/or MVP quarterback rather than wondering if they could fix the flaws of former first overall pick Jameis Winston if they would have taken Jackson.
Dallas Cowboys select Darius Leonard over Leighton Vander-Esch 19th overall
It is unreal to imagine that after Leighton Vander-Esch’s rookie season in Dallas that they could have potentially made the wrong selection. Vander-Esch named to his first Pro Bowl and was named Second Team All-Pro that season. He lost Defensive Rookie of the Year to Colts linebacker Darius Leonard. Both seemed to be on the fast track to becoming two of the league’s best linebackers. However their paths ever since their first seasons.
The Cowboys took Vander-Esch to be the eventual replacement to Sean Lee who was still on the roster but declining due to age and a multitude of injuries adding up. Vander-Esch deserved all the accolades he received in his rookie season after putting up 102 solo tackles (140 total) and two interceptions. However, he has dealt with the same issues that Lee has dealt with over the years and that is injuries. Vander-Esch has missed 13 games over the last two seasons because of a neck issue and broken collarbone. This factored into Dallas’ decision to not only draft linebacker Micah Parson in the first round of this past draft but to decline Vander-Esch’s fifth-year option.
The next linebacker taken in the 2018 NFL Draft after Vander-Esch was Darius Leonard by the Indianapolis Colts. Despite playing at South Carolina State, Leonard was considered a top prospect in that year’s class. However, no one knew Leonard was going to be as dominant as he has been over his career. During his rookie season, Leonard led the league in tackles with 111 (163 total). He followed it up with two more 120+ total tackle seasons. Leonard has also shown the ability to rush the passer as he has 15 sacks in three seasons. He also had five of his seven career interceptions during his second season. Leonard has 22 career passes defended and nine forced fumbles.
Leonard would have eliminated the uncertainty at the linebacker position that Dallas has right now. There are question marks about both former Pro Bowlers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander-Esch. His presence would have also been a major help to their abysmal defense from a season ago. This past draft Dallas could have done a number of things with their first-round pick. Dallas could have still traded back to 12th overall and taken versatile offensive linemen Rashawn Slater or Alijah Vera-Tucker. They could have addressed a need for a pass rusher by taking Jaelan Phillips. The Cowboys may have even taken the offer the Chicago Bears gave to the New York Giants but offered to them first.
Dallas wanted to stay in a position to grab a player like Micah Parsons so they didn’t take the deal. The Bears wanted to move into the early part of the first round in order to take quarterback Justin Fields. If Dallas would have moved to 20th overall they could have addressed their need at cornerback by taking formerly regarded top prospect (before his back surgery) Caleb Farley or Greg Newsome. Dallas would have received a package of picks in return including the 20th overall pick and Chicago’s first-round pick in 2022.
Baltimore Ravens select Calvin Ridley over Hayden Hurst 25th overall
It was very clear that the Baltimore Ravens wanted to make their offense more explosive during the 2018 NFL Draft. Little did the Ravens know that they would be setting the framework for their team to be Super Bowl contenders over the next couple of seasons with their 2018 draft class. However, Baltimore’s first selection in the first round Hayden Hurst did not pan out like the Ravens expected him to. Early on in his career, Hurst was beaten out by fellow tight end Mark Andrews who was taken in the third round by Baltimore that same season.
After two seasons with the Ravens, Hurst was traded to Atlanta for a second-round pick that ended up becoming J.K. Dobbins. So the selection did end up benefiting Baltimore, but they still could have taken a selection with that pick. Hurst only started 4 of the 28 games he played in Baltimore. During his rookie season, he only caught 13 passes on 23 targets for 163 yards and a touchdown. The following year Hurst had 30 receptions on 39 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns.
The player taken right after Hurst in the 2018 NFL Draft was also a pass catcher and is now his current teammate in Atlanta. Calvin Ridley was taken by the Atlanta Falcons with the 26th overall pick. He has been outstanding since entering the league. During his rookie season, he caught 64 passes on 92 targets for 821 yards and ten touchdowns. The following season Ridley caught 63 receptions on 93 targets for 866 yards and seven touchdowns in only 13 games. This past season Ridley broke out and was the Falcons’ number one receiver for a majority of the season putting up 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns on 90 receptions on 143 targets. Ridley was named Second Team All-Pro this past season and performed well enough to feel comfortable trading Julio Jones this offseason.
Baltimore didn’t have a glaring need at wide receiver. They had veterans Michael Crabtree, John “Smokey” Brown, and Willie Snead on the roster. But none of the three were talented enough to become the number one receiver Ridley had the upside to be. Ridley would have emerged as one of the Ravens’ top receivers early in his career. The connection between Lamar Jackson and Ridley would have been extremely dynamic early on and throughout the years.
The following season the Ravens may have still added Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to add to that receiving group or could have added pass rusher Montez Sweat to fill that need for them at the time. If both were on the team Baltimore definitely would not have taken Rashod Bateman in the first round this past draft. Instead, they could have taken Odafe “Jayson” Oweh with the 27th overall pick instead of the 31st. Then Baltimore could have been freed up to take right tackle Tevin Jenkins or center Landon Dickerson with their next selection.
Baltimore was fortunate enough to trade Hurst for the selection to take an essential piece of their offense in J.K. Dobbins. But it would have been interesting to see a Lamar Jackson-Calvin Ridley connection in Baltimore the past three seasons.
Seattle Seahawks trade down and select Nick Chubb over Rashaad Penny 27th overall
The most puzzling first-round pick in 2018 was made by the Seattle Seahawks. Instead of taking the consensus second-best cornerback in the draft Jaire Alexander to replace former All-Pro Richard Sherman, the Seahawks traded back from pick 18 to pick 27 in a deal with the Green Bay Packers that allowed them to select Alexander. Then with the 27th overall pick, they reach on running back Rashaad Penny even though they had a solid rotation of running backs Mike Davis, C.J. Prosise, J.D. McKissic, and the team’s current starter Chris Carson.
Seattle had bigger needs on their roster to address than running back. However, it is understandable that the Seahawks wanted to invest a premium pick at the position since their offense was not the same without Marshawn Lynch leading the backfield. But Seattle had multiple better options at the position than Penny available to them at that selection. Multiple running backs available had higher grades than Penny including Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Derrius Guice.
Seattle could have traded back multiple times and still could have landed Penny. Many had a third-round grade on Penny as a prospect and Seattle could have even landed Penny as early as at the end of the second round and it would have been understandable. Penny was compared to recent breakout running back David Johnson, who was a third-round pick because many felt that over time he may be able to break out and become a star running back.
But Seattle took Penny in the first round means they believe he could lead their backfield right away. Since getting draft Penny has done anything but lead the Seahawks backfield. Penny has not started a single game for the Seahawks in his first three seasons and hasn’t reached 500 yards rushing a season. His role in the Seahawks offense has declined over the years. In his rookie year, Penny rushed for 419 yards and two touchdowns on 85 attempts. The following season he rushed for 370 yards and three touchdowns off of 65 attempts in ten games. This past season Penny only rushed for 34 yards on 11 attempts in three games. Not only has Penny not been able to carve himself a role in this offense, but he has also dealt with injuries as well including a left knee that has had two procedures in the past two years. Seattle did not pick up Penny’s fifth-year option.
The next running back selected was Nick Chubb who was been a Pro Bowler the past two seasons. It was shocking the Seattle didn’t take a longer look at Chubb considering he plays more similarly to how Marshawn Lynch does. Both are bigger backs who run best between the tackles and have the ability to create large chunk plays. Chubb could have very well won the Seahawks starting running back job during training camp and over time increased his workload until he became a workhorse back. Chris Carson may not have established himself as a starting-caliber running back with Chubb ahead of him on the depth chart. But he may have been better suited being a part of a rotation considering all the injuries he has dealt with over the years.
Not only has Chubb been a better player than Penny, but he has been more durable than any of the Seahawks’ running backs over recent years. Injuries at the running back position have been one of the things holding Seattle back as legitimate contenders in their last few playoff appearances. It got so bad that Marshawn Lynch came out of retirement for the Seahawks before the 2019-20 offseason to help his former team’s depleted running back room before the playoffs.
The New England Patriots select Courtland Sutton instead of Sony Michel 31st overall
It is hard to knock how the New England Patriots drafted in 2018 considering they won the Super Bowl the following season. It is even harder to fault them for taking Sony Michel in the first round because he was so instrumental to their Super Bowl run. But since then he was hasn’t been great for them.
During his rookie season, Michel led the Patriots in rushing with 931 yards and six touchdowns on 209 attempts. He was crucial for them down the stretch, especially in the playoffs. Tom Brady and the rest of New England’s passing attack was complemented with an outstanding rushing offense led by Michel in the playoffs. In the divisional round against the Chargers, Michel rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns off of 24 attempts. The next week against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Michel rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 29 attempts. Then in the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams Michel rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown off of 18 attempts.
The following season Michel rushed for 912 yards and seven touchdowns on 247 attempts. That doesn’t sound that bad it is cause for some concern. Michel was given a larger role in the offense and had slightly worse production. His yards per carry took a huge hit from an above-average 4.5 to below-average 3.7. It was likely going to drop because of the increased role, but New England likely did not expect it to drop that far. This past season Michel disappeared only playing in nine games due to a couple of injuries. He rushed for 449 yards and a touchdown on 79 attempts. Damien Harris took over the Patriots backfield and will go into this season as the favorite to be the starter.
One of the players New England could have drafted instead of Michel in 2018 was wide receiver, Courtland Sutton. In a not-so-top-heavy wide receiver class, Sutton was considered one of the best of the group. He with the Denver Broncos in the second round. He joined a veteran receiving group made up of former Pro Bowlers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Sutton started the last nine games of his rookie season after Denver traded Thomas away to the Houston Texans. He had 42 catches on 84 targets for 704 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The following season Sutton became the team’s true number one receiver after the Broncos traded Sanders away to the San Fransisco 49ers after seven weeks of the season. He finished the year with 1,112 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 72 receptions on 124 targets. This past season Sutton only played in one game after sustaining a shoulder injury in training camp that held him out of Week 1 then sustaining a torn ACL in Week 2 that kept him out the rest of the season. He finished the year with three receptions for 66 yards on six targets.
There is some debate on whether the Patriots would have been better off selecting Sutton over Michel in the 2018 NFL Draft. Michel’s impact his first season was a huge reason why the Patriots won the Super Bowl that season. However, Sutton would have likely had better long-term value and gave the Patriots the true number one receiver they have been lacking for years. If they selected Sutton they could have likely avoided the N’Keal Harry selection and taken a player like Byron Murphy, Rock-Ya Sin, Jawaan Taylor, or Taylor Rapp who each had lower first-round grades on them and were available for New England’s first-round pick in 2019. On top of that maybe his presence could have been enough to keep Tom Brady in New England. Brady left because he felt New England had not given him the offensive skill players he needs to keep this team at a Super Bowl level.
Other What-If Scenarios:
The Cleveland Browns select Josh Allen over Baker Mayfield with the 1st overall pick
The Arizona Cardinals trade up and select Lamar Jackson over Josh Rosen with the 11th overall pick
The Seattle Seahawks selects Jaire Alexander with the 18th overall pick instead of allowing the Green Bay Packers trade up and select him
The Cincinnati Bengals select James Daniels over Billy Price with the 21st overall pick
The New England Patriots select Calvin Ridley over Isaiah Wynn with the 23rd overall pick
The Baltimore Ravens trade down and select D.J. Moore over Hayden Hurst with the 25th overall pick
The Seattle Seahawks trade down and select Dallas Goedert over Rashaad Penny with the 27th overall pick
The Seattle Seahawks trade down and select Donte Jackson over Rashaad Penny with the 27th overall pick
The Pittsburgh Steelers select Jessie Bates over Terrell Edmunds with the 28th overall pick
The Jacksonville Jaguars select Darius Leonard over Taven Bryan with the 29th overall pick
The New England Patriots select Lamar Jackson over Sony Michel with the 31st overall pick
The New England Patriots select Nick Chubb over Sony Michel with the 31st overall pick
More NFL Draft What If’s:
2013 NFL Draft
2014 NFL Draft
2015 NFL Draft
2016 NFL Draft
2017 NFL Draft
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