Back in freshman year of college, I would find myself reading Bill Simmons’ Friday morning column, commenting on what he thought were the best bets of the NFL that week. Typically in a mailbag format, he would preview some of the games that week and present what he thought were the best bets.
I never got my questions included on his site and to this day, I remain bitter over it.
Every single week, I find myself talking out loud about picks — what should I gamble on? Does this pick make sense? Will Evil Geniuses not try this week?
While competitive League of Legends is dependent on so many different attributes, making it incredibly difficult to predict, a lot about the game can be broken down to logic, statistical trends and a little bit of ‘reading the room.’ I swear, this lengthy, introductory piece won’t be included on every single article but it is a nice little start to things.
The second to last week of the regular season is here for the LCS and we’re getting ready for the playoffs. We think we know who are the four best teams in the league — 100 Thieves, TSM, Cloud9 and Evil Geniuses. We believe that Team Liquid will continue to distance themselves from the middle of pack and make it a contentious top five. FlyQuest, Golden Guardians, Counter Logic Gaming are going to keep things interesting towards the end but they’re probably stuck. And we could be in for a war for the sixth seed in the LCS between Dignitas and Immortals.
We’ll learn a lot from Day 1 of Week 8. A relatively stacked day of League of Legends in North America could build the story of what to expect in the play-offs.
100 Thieves – Cloud9
It’s the battle between two of the best teams in North America that doesn’t necessarily feel like a battle between two of the best teams in North America. 100 Thieves continue to impress but at times regress. And Cloud9 has their heads in the clouds if they think this is the season everyone thought it would be for them.
They’re incredibly similar. If their jungler is on point, they’re unstoppable. They have an incredible support that does a great job at influencing the map. And then they have three players in skill positions that seemingly can be the best players on the Rift at any point in time.
So who sh**s the bed? Who knows.
What we do know is that 100 Thieves are one of the best early game teams in North America. They’re first in first turret percentage (71%), third in first dragon percentage (52%) while Cloud9 have been towards the bottom of the standings. 100 Thieves have also improved in the month of July — earning first turret 78% of the time and first dragon 67% of the time.
Despite the name and the legacy, Cloud9 continues to look uninspired in 2021. It’s one thing for Luka “Perkz” Perković to be underperforming as a mid-laner — given the general decline in performance over the years along with uninformed expectations of what he offers as a player. But to see such a mess of a team on the Rift without much excitement, that’s just weird to think about.
With that being said, this feels like a trap and if you don’t bet on C9, you’re going to be kicking yourself. Philippe “Vulcan” Laflamme continues to prove that he is an MVP caliber player and we just need to respect how good he is.
Combined kills to be over 25.5 (-115)
Cloud9 to win (EVEN)
100 Thieves to secure first turret (-120)
100 Thieves to secure first dragon (-120)
TSM – Evil Geniuses
Since Peter Dun took the microphone and said he doesn’t really care about the performance of Evil Geniuses in the summer, Evil Geniuses have been performing really well.
Figures.
An 8-1 record in July is the best among teams in the LCS. Jeong “Impact” Eon-young continues to be one of the best players in North America and deserves the first team all-pro spot for top-laners. Dennis “Svenskeren” Johnsen is returning to form. It really has been impressive to see how Evil Geniuses approached the potential usage of Juan “Contractz” Garcia, how the team responded to the substitution and more importantly, how Svenskeren responded to the substitution.
When Evil Geniuses are taking the game seriously, it is hard to bet against them. But they’re going against the one team in the LCS that simply just wins games.
TSM are tied with Evil Geniuses for the second-best record in North America for the Summer Split but TSM’s lack of consistency continues to leave a sense of dread. Mingyi “Spica” Lu is listed as a potential MVP candidate yet really hasn’t been an MVP caliber jungler. He has had shining moments — especially with his critical ultimates on Diana — but continues to sit in the middle of the pack among junglers when it comes to statistics.
Peter Dun and company appear to have TSM figured out. Bringing in Contractz for the matchup was a clear strategic decision. Spica struggles to operate from behind and at times disappears from matches only to be saved by veteran leadership in TSM’s mid and support position. And you have to let the hot team stay hot.
Evil Geniuses to win (-105)
Evil Geniuses to secure first turret (-115)
FlyQuest – Team Liquid
Since the departure of Joshua “Jatt” Leesman, Team Liquid have been on a bit of a cold streak. Their 6-6 record since then has been a result of no clear vision of the team. While roster moves have played a significant part, Jonas “Kold” Andersen has not made a significant case for why he should be the future head coach of the roster rather than filling in. On the opposite side of things, FlyQuest are figuring things out with the academy line-up — 4-2 in their last six.
The story tells you to go with the hot team — FlyQuest — but teams have had more and more time to catch up on how they operate. In their second week being promoted, they were sniffed out against better competition.
This is a clear trap game. Either storyline seems realistic: “FlyQuest upset Team Liquid with their aggression” or “Team Liquid smothers FlyQuest with their veteran prowess.” Team Liquid are begging to be bet against and FlyQuest are begging to bet on.
Why not just bet on a close game?
Combined kills to be under 25.5 (-115).
Difference in kill spread to be under 6.5 (-115)
Golden Guardians – Counter Logic Gaming
Golden Guardians feel like the great story of 2021 summer. Trading in their spring misfortunes for progress in the summer makes them a threat in every single match they play. Their rookie talents are stepping up to the play in a massive way and it looks as if their star mid-laner will be receiving the honors of rookie of the year.
Everything is going right for them.
On the other hand, Counter Logic Gaming’s front office is an embarrassment, and it is tough to find anything nice to say. What has been done in the past few weeks by their social media team and their general manager Daniel “Tafokints” Lee is a disgrace and should never happen in the esports scene.
Their League of Legends roster is currently battling through the emotional damage caused by Lee’s incompetence and it is incredibly tough to watch. Despite progress being shown throughout the season, Lee’s inability to be a good leader has created a toxic environment and likely impacted the reputation of every single member of his League of Legends roster — including a promising young head coach in Galen Holgate.
Golden Guardians are clearly the better team. But betting against Counter Logic Gaming just feels more important than betting on Golden Guardians.
Golden Guardians to win (-155)
Golden Guardians to secure first turret (-130)
Difference in kill spread to be over 4.5 (-115)
Combined kills to be over 25.5 (-115)
Immortals – Dignitas
Did you know that Dignitas has the best first blood percentage in North America?
Dignitas taking a step back from their spring form was a dream come true for analysts. Having to potentially cope with the fact that Dignitas had a really good read on the skirmish meta along with a potential top-talent in Toàn “Neo” Trần paired with legendary support Zaqueri “aphromoo” Black is off the table.
And that sucks. Neo was very much deserving of recognition for his incredible spring split.
Immortals’ strong start to the Summer Split was halted by a questionable, early substitution. It appears to have killed most of the momentum with the line-up. With a lack of consistency in the bottom lane, it is tough to see how Immortals will find their way to hold off the feisty underdogs in Team Dignitas. Immortals have the second-worst record in NA in the month of July. Compounded with having the third-lowest first blood percentage, third-lowest first turret percentage and lowest first dragon percentage in July, it feels strange to see them as -165 favorites to win.
Dignitas to win (+125)
It seriously is still surprising this was a game where Dignitas received plus odds.
Dignitas to secure first blood (-110)
If possible — look for a member of Immortals’ bottom lane to give up first blood.
Dignitas to secure first turret (EVEN)
Dignitas to secure first dragon (EVEN)
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