Fantasy stats based around 4 points per passing TD and 0.5 points per reception.
There are two main approaches when look at fantasy player scoring trends. The first is to see how that player is performing from an output perspective. The second is to look at how their upcoming opponent has performed.
This article leans heavily on Fantasy Points Against (FPA). This number measures the total fantasy points given up per game to a position group by a defense. Other stats referenced may come from sources including Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders.
STARTS:
Jonnu Smith
Travis Kelce has been as dominant as ever this season. He is pacing the tight end class by leaps and bounds. Kelce has finished among the Top 12 tight ends in 10 of 11 games, and happens to be the only player with more such games than Jonnu Smith.
Smith gets an appetizing matchup against the Cleveland Browns in Week 13. The Browns have allowed the 2nd most FPA to tight ends. They have also given up four touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games.
Smith has continually been featured in crucial situations for the Titans. He should be slotted in all starting lineups this week.
Mike Gesicki
The Bengals haven’t been great at pass defense in general. It isn’t too surprising that they have been weak to tight ends. They just gave 129 yards to Evan Engram who hadn’t previously broken 70. Mike Gesicki has had five targets in three straight games entering his matchup with the Bengals.
Cincinnati has allowed the 4th most FPA to tight ends. They have also allowed four double-digit performances on top of the Engram breakout last week. With Colt McCoy potentially helming the Giants offense, a weak tight end defense may be exploitable.
Gesicki hasn’t exactly been Mr. Reliable this season but is worth keeping an eye on for streaming opportunities. This is one of those opportunities for teams looking to take an upside shot.
SITS:
Logan Thomas
The Washington Football Team find themselves in a fine position. In a weak division, they can still reasonably make the playoffs. In the postseason probability calculations, Week 13 might as well be chalked up as a loss.
The Football Team draw a still undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers squad that hasn’t been hindered by opposing tight ends. They have allowed the fewest FPA to tight ends and only one Top 12 finish. Outside of Noah Fant’s Week 2 showing, Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a touchdown or 55+ yards to a tight end.
Logan Thomas has been heavily involved in Washington’s offense seeing at least four targets in every game. This week, though he may be targeted, the production ceiling is low and Thomas should be on benches everywhere.
Dallas Goedert
Just like Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles are still in the playoff hunt. Also like Washington, the Eagles have a very tough draw going on the road to face the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have allowed only one Top 12 finish to a tight end. Outside of that Week 6 Rob Gronkowski game, they haven’t allowed more than four receptions or 10 points to a tight end. Green Bay has also given up the 6th fewest FPA to tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has been great the last two weeks but may be rejoined by Zach Ertz this week. A decrease in target share and a difficult matchup make this a bad spot for Goedert. He should be benched pending any upcoming Ertz news.
Featured Image courtesy of Mitchell Leff / Getty Images
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