Senna has dominated Summoner’s Rift for a while, particularly in her ADC role. By 14.6 next week though, she will have received three nerfs: two direct stat nerfs, and one indirect nerf as a result of item changes. Read on to see the changes, and how their combination could result in a bigger impact than ever.
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Senna’s Q Nerf
On March 5th, Senna’s Q scaling was reduced from +50% bonus AD damage to +40% bonus AD damage. However, shortly after, Riot Phroxzon shared that the changes undershot, and that she would need to be nerfed again on March 20.
Results
Data from League of Graphs definitely reflects Phroxzon’s claim: Senna’s win rate has decreased by 0.1% overall since the last patch, a negligible difference. Clearly, this change was not having its intended impact, with Senna ADC still holding a 53.54% win rate. So, Riot went back to their tried and true: toggle the mist wraith spawns.
Senna’s Mist Wraith Spawn Rate
For 14.6, Senna’s mist wraith spawn rate will be nerfed back to 2.7%. This applies only to minions that Senna kills, so the change will target Senna ADC specifically. With less mist wraiths in play, Senna will have less stacks for her passive (and therefore less scaling). She will also have a reduced income. Similar changes have occurred repeatedly throughout Senna’s history, and will likely continue on into the future.
Since this is a common Senna change, there is fairly recent data showing the impact to Senna’s game play statistics. Can that be used as an indicator for what might happen in 14.6?
Results
The most recent time that Senna received the mist wraith nerf was in Patch 12.3 on February 16, 2022. At that point, her wraith spawn rate was reduced to 2.7%, which lasted until it was changed back to 8.3% on June 8 that year.
Over the course of those few months, Senna’s ADC win rate dipped down to around 50% in late February, then even further to ~47% in April. League of Graphs displays the full change on their Senna ADC Win Rate Graph, which can be seen below.
The nerf seemed to have a clear effect, and in fact Senna’s ADC win rate strayed too far down during this time. She was changed back to a higher mist wraith spawn rate shortly after. In the change back, Riot mentioned wanting to give ADC Senna more chances to collect mist wraiths while also nerfing support, hoping this would balance out the two roles.
With this same nerf cycle happening again, will ADC Senna balance out in 2024? Or will she require further changes in the future?
Comparison to Senna 2024
There are a few key differences between Senna 2022 and now, which could impact the results of her mist wraith nerf.
For one, Senna’s win ADC win rates are already higher than they were in 2022. At 53.54% win rate, she could remain in a good spot even after a plunge.
Additionally, the range of Senna’s stats looks a bit different than before, which can be seen in the following chart:
As seen here, many of her base character stats are better now, but her abilities (particularly Q) are worse. But, her Q nerfs from before lacked bite. As that nerf demonstrated, a few points of damage in her Q here and there may not make too much difference, especially if she is otherwise strong. Multiple of her other stats look good, such as her improved auto attack damage and growth stats. If it were only up to these numbers, 14.6 Senna might handle the nerfs better than last time.
But, Senna ADC in 14.6 may still be lacking in comparison to how she was in 12.3. Not due to any of her stats, but because of the final nerf that will affect her game play.
Senna and Lethality Items
Brutalizer and Serrated Dirk will be nerfed in the upcoming Patch 14.6. While Senna is not traditionally a Brutalizer builder, the Serrated Dirk nerf is a different story.
Looking at the most popular pro Senna builds (Bot), she has quite a few items that require a Serrated Dirk. Youmuu’s Ghostblade, Umbral Glaive, Edge of Night, and Opportunity all require at least one, if not multiple Serrated Dirks. For Senna, this means consistently less lethality through a majority of the match, until she is able to build full items. For a champion that already requires scaling and often struggles in the mid game, it will be even more difficult to reach her key part of the match.
Combined with the mist wraith changes, lower lethality could be [deadly] for Senna ADC. While she has a high pedestal to fall from, the combination of these nerfs together could make it very difficult for ADC Senna players to recover.
Fasting Senna is usually the answer to mist wraith nerfs. However, as seen in TheMistCollector’s guide, fasting Senna tends to build lethality. Even those who can work around the mist wraith nerfs will have to adapt further. While ADC Senna certainly needed a nerf, this combination may push her past the point of being viable as an ADC.
Players could potentially try crit fasting Senna instead. While not the most common pick, it may become the most reasonable once the changes hit.
Overall
Senna ADC certainly needed a nerf to balance out the game. But with multiple changes happening at once, she could descend out of a viable range completely. However, this is only the most recent iteration in a long line of changes, and new Senna ADC playstyles could emerge in place of the old ones. Either way, players will find out on March 20.
Featured Image from Riot Games
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