Domingo Santana fantasy

Domingo Santana fantasy: By the numbers

Domingo Santana broke out in 2017, finishing as a top-20 outfielder in standard ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, ahead of players like Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Andrew Benintendi and Andrew McCutchen. Was Santana’s 2017 season a fluke, or a sign of what’s to come?

Background

Domingo Santana fantasy

Domingo Santana was traded to the Houston Astros in a multi-player deal that sent All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence to Philadelphia. (Photo from Wikipedia.com)

Santana originally signed with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009 as an international free agent. After three mediocre minor league seasons in low and single-A, Santana was traded to the Houston Astros in a multi-player deal that sent All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence to Philadelphia.

In his first full minor league season with Houston, Santana batted .302 with 23 home runs, 87 runs scored and 97 RBIs in 119 games in high-A. He was promoted to double-A in 2013 and batted .252 with 25 home runs, 72 runs scored and 64 RBIs in 112 games. Although there was a bit of regression in his batting average and BABIP from 2012 to 2013, the Astros felt enough comfort to continue Santana’s ascension through the minors.

In 2014, Santana played 120 games with the triple-A Oklahoma City Red Hawks, where he would bat .296 with 16 home runs, 63 runs scored and 81 RBIs. His first major league action came in 2014, but in his six games and 18 plate appearances, Santana failed to record a hit and struck out 77.8 percent of the time.

Santana began his 2015 campaign in Oklahoma City. After 75 games played with a .320 batting average and 16 home runs, the Astros decided to trade the then 22-year-old and others to the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Mike Fiers and All-Star outfielder Carlos Gomez. Santana continued his success that season, batting .380 with 18 RBIs in the remaining 20 games of the season with the triple-A Colorado Springs Sky Sox.

In 2016, Santana began the year in the major leagues with Milwaukee, but only played in 77 games due to right elbow and shoulder injuries that landed him on the disabled list on two separate occasions. Santana went on to bat .256 with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs, putting him on a 162-game pace to hit 23 home runs with 67 RBIs.

2017 season 

2017 will be considered Santana’s breakout campaign. In 151 games, a 24-year-old Santana batted .278 with 30 home runs, 88 runs scored, 85 RBIs and 15 stolen bases. He managed to finish as a top-20 fantasy baseball outfielder and can be considered one of the biggest draft steals of the season.

Among qualified batters, Santana’s BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, ranked sixth highest with .363, and his strikeout rate ranked ninth worst at 29.3 percent. Out of the four professional seasons in which Santana played in over 100 games, he has registered a BABIP of at least .316 and strikeout rate above 28 percent. Santana fits in perfectly in this new era of baseball where sluggers are not afraid to strikeout, as guys like Aaron Judge (30.7), Khris Davis (29.9), Eric Thames (29.6) and Justin Upton (28.3) all managed to hit 30 or more home runs while striking out at least 28 percent of the time.

2018 outlook

Domingo Santana fantasy

Domingo Santana batted .278 with 30 home runs, 88 runs scored, 85 RBIs and 15 stolen bases in 2017. (Photo by AP Photo/Tom Lynn)

Due to his unproven track record and playing in Milwaukee, Santana’s cost is sure to be discounted on draft day. Do I think he will hit 30 home runs again? No, as his 30.9 home run to fly ball rate seems unsustainable, as it ranked third in the MLB behind only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Do I think he will steal 15 bases again? Yes, as Milwaukee has finished within the top two in stolen bases in the last two seasons, suggesting that Santana will have no problem swiping double-digit bags.

Do I think he can score and drive in over 80 runs? Yes, as he spent the majority of the season batting fifth, and even spent seven of his last 23 games batting second. This suggests that Milwaukee will use Santana in multiple fantasy friendly spots in the top half of their lineup in 2018.

Finally, do I think he can bat above .275? No, as his BABIP ranked sixth highest in the MLB at .363, suggesting that luck was on his side in 2017. I understand his medium and hard contact rates are impressive at 39.7 percent and 48.6 percent respectively, but I anticipate pitchers to continue to make adjustments, as Santana batted .291 in the first half, and just .262 in the second.

Overall, I think Santana will be a solid fantasy asset and will finish the year batting around .260 with 25 home runs, 80 runs scored, 80 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. In my mind, he will finish as a top-40 outfielder in 2018. Feel free to let me know your thoughts on Domingo Santana and his outlook heading into the 2018 MLB season.

 

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Trey Mancini fantasy

Trey Mancini fantasy: Tale of the tape

Trey Mancini emerged as one of the league’s premier power threats in 2017. In this piece, I will discuss his past and present performance, as well as my expectations moving forward.

Background

Trey Mancini fantasy

Trey Mancini was an eighth-round selection out of the University of Notre Dame by the Baltimore Orioles in 2013. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Mancini was an eighth-round selection out of the University of Notre Dame by the Baltimore Orioles in 2013. That year, a then 21-year-old Mancini played 68 games with low-A Aberdeen in the New York-Pennsylvania League. He rose through the minor leagues at a steady pace, playing in high-A in 2014, double-A in 2015 and triple-A in 2016. After 483 games in four minor league seasons, Mancini totaled 189 extra-base hits and 275 RBIs while slashing .306/.357/.472.

In 2016, the then 24-year-old Mancini made his major league debut. In just five games, he managed to hit three home runs and drive in five RBIs. It wouldn’t be long until we saw what he was capable of at the next level.

2017 season

Mancini’s 2017 campaign exceeded most expectations. The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder was an American League All-Star snub after failing to place within the top-15 in outfield voting despite batting .312 with 14 home runs, 15 doubles and 44 RBIs in 74 games in the first half. Carlos Beltran, future Hall of Famer and fan favorite, was the seventh leading vote getter for American League outfielders, even though he batted .227 with just 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in the first half.

Mancini eventually cooled off, batting a respectable .276 with 10 home runs, 11 doubles and 34 RBIs the rest of the way. He concluded 2017 with a .293 batting average, 24 home runs, 54 extra-base hits and 78 RBIs.

He spent the majority of the season batting fifth or sixth, as he had more than 50 at-bats in each lineup spot. Among qualified batters, Mancini registered the 13th highest batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, at .352 and managed to make at least medium contact on 80 percent of his batted balls.

2018 outlook

Trey Mancini fantasy

Trey Mancini’s raw power and contact rates show he is capable of being a catalyst in the heart of an order. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Mancini looks to be an integral piece to the Orioles’ puzzle moving forward. His raw power and contact rates show he is capable of being a catalyst in the heart of an order.

Despite the Orioles’ struggles (75-87), they ranked fifth in home runs (232) and eighth in batting average (.260) in 2017. In a lineup alongside Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini is sure to be a run-producing machine.

His first base and leftfield eligibilities further enhance his fantasy value, as versatility is key, especially in leagues that use individual outfield positions.

In my estimation, Mancini will be a border-line .300 hitter with a 30-plus home run upside. I am confident he will be drafted within the top-100, although I would be comfortable drafting him within my top-60 selections in 2018.

 

 

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Wilson Ramos 2018

Wilson Ramos fantasy: Tale of the tape

Background

Wilson Ramos fantasy

Wilson Ramos was originally signed by the Minnesota Twins as a 16-year-old international free agent in 2004. (Photo by Getty Images)

Wilson Ramos was originally signed by the Minnesota Twins as a 16-year-old international free agent in 2004, although he would not make his professional debut until 2006. A then 18-year-old Ramos spent his inaugural season in the Gulf Coast League, where he would bat .286 with 16 extra base hits and 26 RBIs in just 46 games.

In 2007, Ramos would progress to Single-A, where he would bat .291 with 36 extra base hits and 42 RBIs in 73 games. In 2008, Ramos would continue his ascension through the minor leagues, moving to the High-A Florida State League, where he would bat .288 with 38 extra base hits and 78 RBIs in 126 games.

At this point in his career, Ramos was ranked as the third prospect in the Twins farm system and 71st overall prospect among the MLB’s top 100 according to Baseball America.

In 2009, Ramos was promoted to the Double-A Eastern League. His minor league consistency and success would continue, as a then 21-year-old Ramos batted .317 with 20 extra base hits and 29 RBIs in 54 games.

His first struggles came in 2010, where in 71 games with the Twins Triple-A affiliate Rochester Red Wings, Ramos batted only .241 with just 19 base hits and 30 RBIs.

Ramos was subsequently traded to the Washington Nationals in July of 2010 for reliever Matt Capps, as the Twins were 56-46 at the time, and felt as though Capps could be a postseason contributor out of the pen.

In 20 games with the Nationals Triple-A affiliate Syracuse Chiefs, Ramos would begin to thrive once again, batting .316 with 14 runs scored, eight RBIs and seven extra base hits. His first substantial major league action came in 2011, where at 23 years old, Ramos batted .267 with 38 extra base hits and 52 RBIs in 113 games. He was successively chosen by Baseball America to represent as the catcher of the All-Rookie Team.

Ramos’ 2012 campaign was cut short after just 25 games due to a torn ACL that he suffered in May of that year. In 2013, Ramos would play in just 78 games as he was suffering from a lingering hamstring injury, although when on the field he would continue to impress, batting .272 with 16 home runs and 59 RBIs.

In 2014, Ramos broke his hand on opening day, causing him to miss almost half of the season. In 88 games, he batted .267 with 11 home runs and 47 RBIs.

In what is considered his first full season, Ramos struggled tremendously, batting just .229 in a career high 475 at-bats. The Nationals would sign Ramos to a one-year deal just shy of $5.5 million in order to avoid arbitration.

2016 was Ramos’ breakout year, as in 131 games, he would bat .307 with 22 home runs 80 RBIs. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to another torn ACL, although he still managed win the National League Silver Slugger award.

The Nationals decided to let the injured Ramos walk in free agency, so the 29-year-old Ramos chose to sign a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

2017 season

Ramos’ 2017 campaign didn’t begin until June 24, as he was still rehabbing from his second torn ACL. In 64 games, Ramos would bat .260 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs. Over a 162-game sample size, Ramos would have been on pace to hit 27 home runs with 88 RBIs. I understand he has never, and may never, play in more than 135 games, although it is important to understand his offensive potential when healthy.

2018 outlook

Wilson Ramos fantasy

Wilson Ramos is a top-10 catcher offensively, and I would love to have him on my roster in 2018.  (Photo: Getty Images)

Ramos spent the majority of the season batting fifth, sixth and seventh in the Rays lineup, so we can assume he will bat primarily in the second third of the lineup in 2018. The Rays lineup is interesting, as they ranked sixth in home runs with 226 and sixth to last in batting average at .245. The Rays were also the only team in the MLB to have more home runs than doubles.

It is clear that a healthy Ramos can help balance this offense out. I expect Ramos to play in no more than 135 games, although I do anticipate him to bat above .270 with at least 40 extra base hits. When healthy, Ramos is a top-10 catcher offensively, and I would love to have him on my roster in 2018.

 

 

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Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies outlook for the 2018 MLB season

Ozhaino “Ozzie” Albies will be one of the youngest players in the MLB next season, as he will turn 21 in January. The Curacao-born Albies will join the rising crop of Dutch infielders in the MLB a list that includes Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Schoop, Andrelton Simmons and 2017 playoff hero Didi Gregorius.

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Albies signed with the Atlanta Braves for $350,000 as an international free agent in 2013. According to Zach Dillard of Fox Sports, Albies was heavily influenced to sign with the Braves due to his personal connection with the aforementioned Simmons and Andruw Jones, who both are former Braves players and natives of Curacao.

As a 17-year-old in 2014, Albies was more than impressive, batting a combined .364 in 57 games in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. Heading into 2015, Albies was ranked within the top-100 prospects in baseball by Keith Law of Baseball Prospectus.

With heightened expectations, Albies did not disappoint, batting .310 with 29 extra-base hits and 29 stolen bases in 98 games. Albies was named to the All-Star Futures Games, where he was the youngest player to take the field. Unfortunately, he fractured his right thumb in early August, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2015 season.

He was invited to spring training in 2016, but opened the season with Double-A Mississippi. In 138 games in Double and Triple-A, Albies batted a combined .292 with 49 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases.

He was invited to spring training once again in 2017, but was sent to triple-A as the Braves had a log jam in their middle infield with veteran Brandon Phillips at second base and first-overall pick Dansby Swanson at shortstop. In 97 games in Triple-A, Albies batted .285 with 48 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases.

2017 Season

Albies was called-up on August 1 and has since batted .286 with 20 extra-base hits and eight stolen bases in 57 games. This level of production would put Albies on pace to have 56 extra-base hits and 22 stolen bases.

He has an extraordinary 14.8 percent strike out rate and has made at least medium contact on 85 percent of batted balls, which are nearly identical figures to fellow middle infielders Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus.

2018 Outlook

Ozzie Albies 2018

Ozzie Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset, as even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with speed. (Photo by Getty Images)

In 2017, the 20-year-old spent the majority of his time batting second and seventh. It is assumed he will be used primarily in the top third of the lineup in 2018. Albies promises to be an incredible fantasy asset. Even though he lacks dominant power, he makes up for it with his speed.

The Braves’ offense was very underrated in 2017, as they were ranked sixth in batting average and had the fourth fewest strikeouts. For fantasy purposes, batting in the top third of any lineup is great, but the Braves promise to be even more productive in 2018 with Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp and Ender Inciarte all healthy and returning.

The 2018 outlook for Ozzie Albies is incredibly bright. His draft stock is bound to increase by the day as we head toward the 2018 MLB season. The price for Albies will likely be between the 50th and 100th pick, depending on the draft date and league format. I will be buying plenty of Albies stock in 2018, will you?

 

 

 

 

 

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Injuries 2018 MLB season

Injuries to keep an eye on heading into the 2018 MLB season

With the ALCS and NLCS around the corner and the 2017 fantasy baseball season officially in the books, it is time to assess the 2018 outlook for the following four players. They are all currently injured with fairly loose time tables for return, but also could be impact players next season.

Jimmy Nelson, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Jimmy Nelson’s 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranks fourth in the MLB, only behind Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer. (Photo by The News and Observer)

Nelson quietly emerged as one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball this season.

Yes, you heard me correctly. Jimmy Nelson. His 2017 WAR of 4.9 ranked eighth in the MLB. Nelson also finished in the top 10 in K/9 (10.21) and xFIP (3.15) to go with a 3.49 ERA. In 175.1 innings, Nelson fell only one strikeout short of 200, which was a huge improvement from his prior career high of 148 in 177.1 innings.

According to fangraphs.com, Nelson’s curveball in 2017 was valued at 9.2, where a value of zero represents average, a positive value represents above average and a negative value represents below. To put this in better perspective, Clayton Kershaw’s curveball has been valued at a total of 63.8 over the course of his career, with a high of 16.5 and a yearly average of 7.2, although his curveball is currently valued at 6.4 in 2017. This shows that Nelson’s stuff is similarly effective to the likes of Kershaw.

The 28-year-old suffered a partially torn labrum and a strained rotator cuff after sliding back head-first into first base on September 8. He underwent surgery on September 19, which will undoubtedly set him back at the start of the 2018 season. According to MLB.com, Nelson shouldn’t be expected to return until midseason.

Nelson is well worth a flyer in fantasy drafts next season, as his price is sure to be discounted due to his long-awaited return.

Adam Eaton, Outfielder, Washington Nationals

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Adam Eaton tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 MLB season. (Photo by the Cincinnati Enquirer)

In his first season in Washington after being traded for prospect pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, Eaton had found himself in a fantasy friendly leadoff role. It was undeniable that he could score triple-digit runs and steal double-digit bases atop a loaded Nationals lineup.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and meniscus on April 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2017 season.

Eaton was batting .297 with two home runs, three stolen bases and 14 walks through 23 games this season. His combination of speed, plate discipline, contact hitting and opportunity in the Nationals’ lineup push me to compare him to the likes of his former teammate A.J. Pollock.

Pollock is a career .286 hitter with a 162-game average of 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Eaton’s 162-game average is .284, 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases, showing that he offers similar value to Pollack a much cheaper price.

Early reports this season suggested that there would be a possibility for Eaton to return at the end of the 2017 season if the Nationals were to make a deep postseason run. However, the Nationals were eliminated in the NLDS and Eaton did not enter a game. This indicates that Eaton should be ready to go by the start of 2018, and by his own account according to the Washington Post, he plans to return “a better player for sure.”

Eaton’s confidence in himself is reassuring for his fantasy value moving forward, although the current outfield situation in Washington is not. Superstar Bryce Harper is locked into right field as long as he remains a National. Michael Taylor has emerged as much more than a depth outfielder after batting .271 with 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases in Eaton’s absence. Veteran slugger Jayson Werth was on pace for 23 home runs through 162-games, but was plagued with injuries. Top prospect Victor Robles has also shown that he is deserving of MLB at-bats.

It is uncertain if and to what extent Eaton will play in 2018. If he returns to an everyday role, he will reemerge to fantasy relevance once again.

Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Toronto Blue Jays

Injuries 2018 MLB Season

Troy Tulowitzki is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Tulowitzki was placed on the 60-day disabled list on August 6 after suffering ligament damage in his ankle. The 33-year-old played in only 66 games, slashing a career worst .249/.300/.378. Despite his clear struggles and lack of durability, manager John Gibbons told MLB Network Radio that they are committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop in 2018.

He is only three seasons removed from when he batted .340 with 21 home runs in 91 games with the Colorado Rockies. The once perennial National League MVP candidate has been reduced to a shell of his former self. In his three seasons as a Blue Jay, he has a combined .250 batting average and just 36 home runs in 238 games.

He spent the majority of the season batting either fifth or sixth. With the anticipated departure of Jose Bautista and the Josh Donaldson trade rumors, it is hard to identify where Tulowitzki will fit in the order or how productive the Blue Jays’ lineup can be.

His fantasy value moving forward is a conundrum, as no one knows what to expect at this point in his career. Will he resurrect his MVP form? Or will his skills and durability continue to diminish? Only time will tell, but his price on draft day in 2018 is sure to be a bargain.

Michael Conforto, Outfielder, New York Mets

Injuries 2018 MLB season

Prior to the injury, Michael Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.55 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. (Photo by NY Daily News)

Conforto underwent season ending surgery on September 6 to repair a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder. His anticipated return is around early March, although this only gives him a month to ramp up baseball activities before the start of the season in April, suggesting that he will miss the beginning of the 2018 regular season.

Prior to the injury, Conforto was slashing .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs through 109 games. This rate of production put Conforto on pace to hit 40 home runs and drive in 101 RBIs.

Whether he is in left, right or center field, Corforto is a lock to be in the Mets’ lineup. He has proven that he is not just a left-handed side of a platoon, but yet a budding superstar, as he was playing nearly everyday in July and August. However, he still only bats a career .180 against lefties, so be weary.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old is sure to be undervalued in fantasy circles next season. He is obviously coming off of an injury, but more importantly, he plays for the Mets, whose offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in runs, RBIs and batting average in 2017. With a healthy Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets could easily become a top-15 offense in 2018, making Conforto’s fantasy value rise immensely.

 

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Kevin Kiermaier 2018

Kevin Kiermaier’s outlook for the 2018 MLB season

Background

Kevin Kiermaier 2018

Post rookie ball, Kiermaier struggled, batting only .241 in single-A in 2011, and .260 in high-A in 2012. (Photo by Minor League Baseball)

Exterior expectations were non-existent for Kiermaier, as he was drafted in the 31st round by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2010 MLB draft. A then 20-year-old Kiermaier batted .303 with 17 stolen bases in rookie ball, showing his potential, though he was at an early stage in his development.

Post rookie ball, Kiermaier struggled, batting only .241 in single-A in 2011, and .260 in high-A in 2012. In 2013, Kiermaier split his time between double and triple-A, batting a combined .295 with six home runs, 41 RBIs and 21 stolen bases in 136 games.

Kiermaier’s first major league action came in 2014, where the 24-years-old batted .263 with 10 home runs, 35 RBIs and five stolen bases in 108 games. In 2015, Kiermaier had somewhat of a breakout season, batting .263 with 10 home runs, 40 RBIs and 18 stolen bases, while winning his first Gold Glove and placing 17th in the American League MVP vote.

His 2016 campaign was shortened due to a fractured wrist, which cost him all of June and the first half of July, but he still managed to win a second consecutive Gold Glove. During that season, the Rays record with Kiermaier in the lineup was 48-54 (.471), and 20-40 (.333) without him, showing his overall importance to the Rays success.

2017 Season

Kevin Kiermaier 2018

Kiermaier fractured his hip on June 8th, forcing him to miss two months. (Photo by TBO.com)

In 2017, Kiermaier got off to a slow start, batting just .220 with one home run, three RBIs and 13 runs in 26 games. He began to get back on track in May, batting .270 with five home runs, 14 RBIs and 16 runs in 30 games.

Unfortunately, Kiermaier fractured his hip on June 8, forcing him to miss two months. The 27-year-old returned on August 18 to bat .306 with eight home runs, 19 RBIs and 26 runs the rest of the way. Over the course of a full 162-game season, Kiermaier would be on pace to bat .276 with 24 home runs, 92 runs, 64 RBIs and 26 stolen bases.

2018 Outlook

Kevin Kiermaier 2018

Kiermaier’s price on draft day is sure to be discounted, as he has a lengthy injury history, a reputation for being strictly defensive minded and plays for the low-profile Tampa Bay Rays. (Photo by USA Today)

Kiermaier spent the majority of 2017 batting either leadoff or second, putting him in an advantageous position to score and drive in runs. He clearly has the potential to bat .300, hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases over the course of a full season, making him absolutely fantasy relevant heading into 2018.

Kiermaier’s price on draft day is sure to be discounted, as he has a lengthy injury history, a reputation for being strictly defensive minded and plays for the low-profile Tampa Bay Rays. I would not be surprised to see Kiermaier on my fantasy team in 2018, as I believe his value will far exceed his cost.

 

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Rhys Hoskins MLB

Why Rhys Hoskins stands out among young MLB sluggers

The 2017 Major League Baseball season has been nothing short of astounding. On Tuesday, September 19th, the collective single season home run record was broken, as Kansas City Royal Alex Gordon mashed home run number 5,694 of the MLB season. On top of this amazing feat, the MLB has seen a rapid immergence of young power hitters, like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Joey Gallo and Rhys Hoskins, who would all on pace for over 45 home runs if they played a complete 162 game season. I’m here to tell you why Hoskins has been the most impressive of the bunch in 2017.

Background

Rhys Hoskins MLB

Hoskins’ standout season came in 2016, where in 135 triple-A games, he batted .281 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 95 runs scored. (Photo by Yahoo Sports)

Expectations weren’t immediately set high for Hoskins, who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. In low-A, he batted just .237, while striking out almost 20 percent of the time. Hoskins progressed in 2015, batting a combined .319 in 135 games in single and high-A.

His standout season came in 2016, where in 135 triple-A games, Hoskins batted .281 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 95 runs scored. Previous to this season, Hoskins was ranked the 11th best prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system by Baseball America, after, he was ranked sixth, behind only J.P. Crawford, Mickey Moniak, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Sixto Sanchez.

2017 Season

Rhys Hoskins MLB

Hoskins has been astonishing, batting .293 with 18 home runs, a record 11 coming in his first 64 at bats. (Photo by Rotoprofessor)

Hoskins began 2017 in triple-A, where he continued his minor league dominance, batting .284 with 29 home runs and 91 RBIs in 115 games. One of the most important attributes Hoskins possesses is plate discipline, as he had walked (64) nearly as many times (75) as he struck out in triple-A. His minor league success, along with Tommy Joseph’s struggles made a call-up for Hoskins inevitable.

So far in the big leagues, Hoskins has been astonishing. Through 41 games, he is batting .293 with 18 home runs, a record 11 coming in his first 64 at bats, 45 RBIs and 34 runs scored. He is penciled into the clean-up spot of a young Phillies lineup is trending in the right direction.

What separates Hoskins from the rest

Rhys Hoskins MLB

In terms of contact rates, Hoskins’ 48 percent hard contact would rank him first among MLB hitters, ahead of Gallo (46 percent), Judge (44 percent), Bellinger (43 percent) and Olson (42 percent). (Photo by Theintelligence.com)

An interesting analytic to look at this season is Hoskins’ BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, which represents how often a ball hit into play results in a hit. For hitters, this stat can be used to identify trends in performance. More specifically for Hoskins, his .264 BABIP suggests that he is getting very unlucky at the dish, as his BABIP in the past has consistently been above .280, most notably above .360 in 2015. To compare, New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is batting .277, although his BABIP is currently an exorbitant .355, suggesting that his batting average is fairly unsustainable. I understand that other factors like exit velocity need to be taken into consideration with BABIP, although Judge’s BABIP has been falling since June.

In terms of strikeout rate, Hoskins sits at a very respectable 20 percent compared to other young stars like Judge (31 percent), Bellinger (26 percent), Gallo (37 percent) and Olson (28 percent), who clearly struggle mightily with striking out. In counts were there is one ball and two strikes, Hoskins is batting an impressive .293, compared to Judge (.190), Bellinger (.188), Gallo (.112) and Olson (.144), exemplifying Hoskins’ pure ability, resilience, plate discipline and overarching mentality of not wanting to strikeout.

Getting on base is an integral part of baseball, and Hoskins is doing it better than almost anyone. He currently has a .425 on base percentage, putting him behind only Joey Votto in this category. Another impressive stat for Hoskins is his walk rate, as although he is not qualified due to a lack of at-bats, he would be ranked third in the MLB in walk rate behind only Votto and Judge. In terms of contact rates, Hoskins’ 48 percent hard contact would rank him first among MLB hitters, ahead of Gallo (46 percent), Judge (44 percent), Bellinger (43 percent) and Olson (42 percent).

I understand he does not qualify due to a lack of major league at-bats, although his 41-game sample size is nothing to scoff at. Calling him the next Paul Golschmidt or Joey Votto may sound crazy to some, but not to me. His stats are incredible and his analytics support growth and sustainability. If not already, Hoskins is bound to become a household name in major league baseball.

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Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow needs to be on your radar

Tyler Glasnow is flat out dominating

Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow can’t watch as Giancarlo Stanton takes him deep for his 16th home run of the year. (Photo by APNews.com)

The former fifth-round draft pick in 2011 began the 2017 season at the major league level with the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 12 major league starts, Tyler Glasnow pitched 54.1 innings, allowing 45 earned runs, 75 hits and 29 walks. His struggles prompted a demotion to triple-A Indianapolis, where he has since been baffling hitters with his mid-to-upper 90s fastball, high-80s changeup and devastating sweeping curve.

In 15 starts with the Indianapolis Indians, Glasnow has pitched 93.1 innings, allowing only 57 hits and 32 walks while striking out 140 batters. The 24-year-old has been dominant in the minors throughout his career.

Through 245 innings in triple-A, Glasnow has recorded a 1.95 ERA and 321 strikeouts. He has yet to have a season in the minor leagues where his xFIP, or expected fielding independent pitching, has been above 3.5, which is considered above average by fangraphs.com.

To better understand xFIP, one must under FIP, which according to fangraphs.com “measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.” I chose to use Glasnow’s xFIP opposed to his FIP because xFIP “removes some of the randomness in the pitcher’s actual performance… [in order] to give you a better view of how well we think a pitcher pitched over a given period of time” (Fangraphs.com).

Major adjustment

Tyler Glasnow

According to CBSSports.com, Tyler Glasnow himself said the change “has allowed him to relax mentally, and [throw] his fastball [in the] high 90s”. (Photo by IndyStar)

The major adjustment Glasnow has made this summer has been to his mechanics, as he is now pitching from the stretch opposed to the windup. This lets the 6-foot-8 hurler simplify his motion, allowing for better repetition of his mechanics. According to CBSSports.com, Glasnow himself said the change “has allowed him to relax mentally, and [throw] his fastball [in the] high 90s”.

According to Rotoballer.com, Glasnow has yet to be called up due to service time issues, although Rotowire.com has reported that Clint Hurdle said he “doesn’t anticipate… making any call-ups at all until the playoff seasons are over for Altoona and Indy,” which are the Pirates double and triple-A affiliates.

This means Glasnow isn’t likely to be promoted until mid-September, although once he receives the call, he promises to be a staple in the Buc’s rotation for years to come. He has been on fantasy radars for years, although because of his major league struggles, he was dropped in a majority of fantasy leagues. If you play in a deep keeper or dynasty league, adding Glasnow now as a flier would be a great move due to his incredible upside.

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What if players retained their eligibilities permanently?

In fantasy baseball, position versatility is integral. Players like Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Jose Ramirez and Paul DeJong are all eligible to start at three different positions in ESPN standard formats. Having players like them allows for maximum lineup adaptability, as you can move them seamlessly throughout your lineup to accommodate for injuries, off-days and cold streaks.

Superstars like Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman have acquired a secondary position eligibility in 2017, Rizzo with second base and Freeman with third. Both player’s project to be selected within the top two rounds of fantasy drafts in 2018, although now their value is further increased, as their versatility allows for further adaptations in draft strategy. In 2018, if your first-round pick is Paul Goldschmidt, you can be completely comfortable taking another primary first basemen, Rizzo or Freeman, in the second-round due to their versatility.

Be careful evaluating

position eligibilities

Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are in danger of losing important position eligibilities. (Photo by Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports)

Position eligibilities can be tricky and you have to be careful when evaluating a player’s versatility. In ESPN formats, a player needs to play a minimum of 10 games at a specific position to retain said eligibility.

Players to be weary of heading into 2018 include Kris Bryant, who has been used all over the diamond in 2017, but has only started one game in left field, Nelson Cruz, who has started 115 games at designated hitter and only five in right field, Travis Shaw, who has only started one game at first base and Javier Baez, who has started just seven games at third base.

Players failing to retain eligibility brings up the question, what if players retained their eligibilities permanently? What if I could start Victor Martinez or Josh Donaldson for that matter, at catcher, or maybe Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun at third base?

Thinking back

position eligibilities

Victor Martinez started 840 games behind the dish. (Photo by Sports Illustrated)

Victor Martinez started 840 games behind the dish and had a career batting average as a catcher of .300. As a designated hitter, he started 746 games, and had a career batting average of .291. According to the ESPN standard player rater, if Victor Martinez was catcher eligible this season, he would be ranked the 16th best catcher, which isn’t too interesting, although in 2016 he would have been ranked number two, just behind Jonathan Lucroy and ahead of Buster Posey.

Many forget but former MVP Josh Donaldson came up through the ranks as a catching prospect for the Oakland Athletics. Donaldson didn’t last at catcher, starting only eight games at the position, although in some fantasy leagues, it only takes five starts to become eligible at a position.

If Donaldson retained his catcher eligibility from 2010, he would have been the best fantasy catcher over the last five seasons. In 2016, Donaldson finished the year as a 9.25 on the ESPN standard player rater (PR), whereas the top catcher, Lucroy, finished as a 5.59. Even with Donaldson’s struggles in 2017, he would be ranked seventh if he were a catcher, compared to 21st as a third baseman. If players retained their eligibility, it would spice things up a bit, and I believe maybe for the better.

Ryan Zimmerman started over 1000 career games at third, while Ryan Braun started just north of 100, although if they both permanently retained their eligibilities, would it really benefit their fantasy value? Zimmerman is having a career year, batting .300 with 29 home runs, which are the highest marks of his career since his last Silver Slugger campaign in 2010. He is currently ranked as the seventh best fantasy first baseman, although if he were eligible at third, he would be ranked fifth, just behind Travis Shaw and Jose Ramirez. It is fair to say his value would increase slightly, although with first and third base having such rich player pools, it may not make such a significant difference.

In Braun’s case, he has been suffering through a multitude of injuries, causing his PR in 2017 to be 2.35, just below fellow banged-up outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who’s at 2.36. As a third baseman, Braun would rank 22nd, just behind former MVP Josh Donaldson at 2.81. Due to his injuries, Braun has been quite useless in fantasy terms, although with an extra eligibility, he could become quite useful depending on the circumstances.

I know, I know

Position Eligibilities

Many forget about Rick Ankiel’s struggles as a pithcer. (Photo by Getty Images)

It’s never going to happen, I know, and it shouldn’t, but we can say what ifs all day about position eligibility. What if Albert Pujols retained his first base, third base and left field eligibilities? What if Hanley Ramirez retained shortstop? What if Rick Ankiel retained his starting pitcher… okay never mind, I’ll stop now. I think eligibilities are one of the most interesting and impactful pieces of fantasy baseball that gets commonly over looked.

 

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Ronald Acuna

Why has Ronald Acuna not been called up?

Background

Ronald Acuna

Acuna is currently on a 14-game hitting streak, where he is slashing .406/.418/.672. (Photo by Last Words on Baseball)

Ranked eighth by MLB.com on the 2017 prospect watch list, Ronald Acuna has continued to prove himself at every professional level. The Venezuelan international was born on Dec. 18, 1997, and was signed in 2014 by the Atlanta Braves as a 16-year-old for $100,000.

This deal was an enormous steal for Atlanta, as they spent a combined seven million dollars on prospects Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez, who are both 17-year-olds playing in the Gulf Coast league.

At 17 years old, Acuna spent time in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues, where in 55 games he batted a combined .269 with four home runs, 18 RBIs and 16 stolen bases. He took a huge leap forward in 2016, batting .312 in 42 games in primarily the South Atlantic League, proving he is one of the Braves top prospects moving forward.

In 2017, Acuna began the year in high-A, although after batting .287 with 19 RBIs and 14 stolen bases in 28 games, he was called up to double-A. Acuna continued his tear, batting .326 with nine home runs, 30 RBIs and 19 stolen bases in 57 games for the Mississippi Braves.

The 19-year-old was then called-up to triple-A Gwinnett, where he has since batted .358 with eight home runs, 27 RBIs and eight stolen bases in 43 games. Acuna is currently on a 14-game hitting streak, where he is slashing .406/.418/.672 with four home runs, 13 runs scored, 14 RBIs and five stolen bases.

His heroic rise up the minor league ladder has been halted, as he has yet to receive a call to the majors despite his incredible levels of success.

Give this man a chance

Ronald Acuna

According to MLB.com writer Mark Bowman, former Atlanta Brave Superstars Chipper and Andruw Jones had “raved about Acuna” during spring training. (Photo by Zimbio.com)

Acuna has continuously decreased his strikeout rate, while increasing his home run to fly ball rate at each succeeding level. He has also shown the ability to hit the ball to all fields, as he is currently hitting 36.8 percent of balls to the opposite field.

His speed is worth noting, as his speed score has ranked anywhere from 5.4 to 9.3 in his career, which is recognized as above average to excellent according to Fangraphs.com. His batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, measures over .400 in 2017, although this seems to be more skill based than luck, as BABIP has not dropped .359 since rookie ball in 2015.

According to MLB.com writer Mark Bowman, former Atlanta Brave superstars Chipper and Andruw Jones had “raved about Acuna” during spring training. The five-tool prospect has been compared to the likes of Starling Marte, who is a two-time Gold Glove winner and one-time All-Star.

With the Braves 19 games back of the Washington Nationals in the National League East, and 11 games back in the wild card race, it seems like a perfect time to bring up the red-hot 19-year-old.

With Ender Inciarte being the everyday center fielder, and veterans Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis in the corners, there is no place for Acuna to play, hence why he has been kept in the minors, as they want him to get as many at-bats as possible.

With no real chance at making the playoffs, the Braves should give Acuna a chance to begin his major league career. He will undoubtedly need to make an abundance of adjustments, so why not allow him to begin progressing, and/or struggling, now when the results do not matter?

The Braves would be stupid to allow veterans like Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis to steal major league at-bats away from their up-and-coming prospects like Acuna, which is why Acuna will likely be called up in September, rather than getting his first shot with the big league club next April.

 

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