The clock is close to striking midnight on this year’s Cinderella story in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Montreal Canadiens find themselves down three games to none against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The odds are not on their side as only four teams in league history have come back from three down. In addition, the Lightning have not lost back to back playoff games dating back to the 2019 postseason. With all this in mind only one question remains; what has gone wrong for the Canadiens in this series?
Carey Price Has Fallen Off
Carey Price is one of the biggest reasons the Canadiens are playing in the Stanley Cup Finals. His excellent play throughout has guided the team to victory against several stronger opponents. Unfortunately for the Canadiens, he seems to have met his match in the Tampa Bay Lightning. Across the first three rounds of the playoffs, Price allowed over three goals on only two occasions. He’s already done so twice in just three games against the Lightning. His save percentage is also down significantly, with a poor .835 percentage in the first three games.
To be fair to Price, his forwards have been no help to him thus far. They’ve played sloppy hockey around their own zone in addition to allowing a lot of odd man rushes. But the difference in this series compared to series past is that Price just hasn’t been able to make the big saves. It seems that almost every time the Lightning have a quality opportunity they’re able to get it by Price. The Canadiens have relied on him allowing three goals or less in order to win so far. His inability to do that in games one and three are part of the reason the Canadiens are facing elimination.
Playing Without A Lead
The Canadiens have not been able to score the first goal or hold a lead at any point across the first three games. This is an often glossed over factor into a game, but against the Lightning having an early lead is important. The reason for this is that throughout this postseason the Lightning have seldomly lost games in which they’ve scored first. In the semifinal series against the Islanders, all four of their wins came in those types of games. This streak has continued against the Canadiens as the Lightning have gotten the first goal in all three of their wins. The Lightning are a tough, disciplined team that excels in trying to protect the lead. This is how they’ve managed to be so successful in games where they score the first goal. The Lightning are a lot more vulnerable when playing from behind, which is why they’ve dominated this series. The Canadiens haven’t made them play from behind at all, which is a recipe for certain failure. The focus for the Canadiens going forward should be taking an early lead if they hope to mount some type of a comeback.
A Major Mismatch
The Canadiens and the Lightning are on two unique playoff paths. The Lightning are in the playoffs as the defending champions hoping to repeat. The Canadiens are in the playoffs as the worst regular season team to qualify. That discrepancy between these two teams has been very apparent in the first three games of the finals. Make no mistake, the Canadiens earned their way into the finals and deserve to be there. But the Lightning are unlike any of the three previous teams they’ve faced. The Maple Leafs, Jets and Golden Knights were all somewhat flawed teams for one reason or the other. But the Lightning are as complete and well coordinated as a team can come in the playoffs.
This can be seen on the ice as the Canadiens look simply outmatched. They make mistakes often and the Lightning are very quick to capitalize on them. To add to that the Lightning have Andrei Vasilevskiy who the Canadiens have not been able to score meaningful goals on. Even with a seemingly perfect effort in game two, the Canadiens still lost and only got one goal on 43 shots. With all due respect to the Canadiens and this run they’re on, they’re just not complete enough to stay with this Lightning team. The Lightning have a level of depth and playoff experience (particularly in the finals) that the Canadiens can’t match. Although their future is bright with young players like Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki making significant contributions, there’s still a ways to go for them. Although anything is possible in the postseason, as the Canadiens have already proved, it doesn’t look like they’ll be holding the Stanley Cup when this series ends.
Featured image courtesy of USA Today Sports
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