The Cincinnati Reds are sitting at 56-48 and are just 1 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead. Cincinnati has survived a 3-10 record against Milwaukee thus far. Their dominance against the rest of Major League Baseball is the only thing keeping them afloat in the division and NL Wild Card race.
The MLB Trade Deadline is just days away (August 1), and the Reds have a serious opportunity. Starting pitching has been a major weakness, although that has improved recently and help is on the way. Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo should be back from injury within the next month or so.
The bullpen has been solid, but the Reds, like all of baseball, could greatly benefit from adding at least one bullpen arm.
Who are some players the Reds should target on the trade market? Who could the Reds look to move on from in a trade scenario? Are any current big-leaguers at risk of changing uniforms or will the Reds focus on moving prospects only?
Starting Pitching Targets
There is a supply and demand issue in the starting pitcher market this season. Every team is in the market for starting pitching and there simply are not a lot of quality starters on the trade block. If a team is fortunate enough to acquire a good starting pitcher, they are typically reluctant to give that up.
The market consists of a few veteran rentals and very few young, controllable starters who are worth trading for.
The Big Fish
Dylan Cease. If the Reds were to make a big splash at the Trade Deadline, Cease appears to be the most likely candidate. Cease has two more seasons of club control after 2023 and has flashed a legitimate top-of-the-rotation upside over the past couple of seasons.
This season, Cease has a 4.04 ERA but his underlying metrics are similar to his 2022 season when he was AL Cy Young runner-up. Cease is giving up about two more hits per game than last season, but his home runs per nine innings rate is similar, an important factor should he move to Great American Ballpark.
Acquiring Cease would require significant prospect capital and potentially an established major-league player as well. The price would be steep, but a rotation of Cease, Greene, Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott is enticing.
Realistic
Some of the more realistic starting targets for the Reds are the rental options. Eduardo Rodriguez of the Detroit Tigers has an opt-out clause that he will likely exercise after this season. Rodriguez is having a career year with a 2.95 ERA, a 147 ERA+ and a career-low HR/9 rate.
Familiar-face, Michael Lorenzen is also enjoying a career year in Detroit. Lorenzen owns a 3.49 ERA in 17 starts and has yet to give up a run in the month of July. Acquiring either Lorenzen or Rodriguez could likely be done with a couple of mid-level prospects.
Bullpen
The Reds can get by without acquiring a starting pitcher at the deadline. Trading for at least one bullpen arm is absolutely essential if Cincinnati wants to not only make the playoffs, but make some noise once they get there.
Josh Hader is reportedly available, according to MLB.com. The former Brewer, and current Padre, has a 0.95 ERA in 38 innings while striking out a whopping 58 batters. Hader would immediately give the Reds a three-headed monster at the back of the bullpen that could rival any in baseball. Although Hader is a rental, his reputation and current performance could drive up the price to acquire his services.
Another Detroit Tigers pitcher, Jason Foley, could be an intriguing option. Foley has quietly had an outstanding season and could have easily been the Tigers’ All-Star selection over Lorenzen.
Foley is a groundball machine with his 97-mph sinker, which would play well in Cincinnati. He is also under team control for the next four seasons and currently owns a 2.03 ERA in over 44 innings this season.
Reds Trade Candidates
The easy answer is one that has been talked about almost all season. Jonathan India’s standing on the trade block has been well-documented, even by India himself. With the emergence of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, the presence of Noelvi Marte in AAA-Louisville and Spencer Steer’s versatility to play anywhere, India has become expendable.
The Reds already have their infield of the future locked down for the better part of a decade with these young players and there simply is not room for India, especially as his performance has dipped this season. He is a great leader, but this team has the structure in place to withstand losing that type of player.
If the Reds were to trade one of their top prospects, it would likely be shortstop Edwin Arroyo. Arroyo is the Reds’ number two prospect, according to MLB.com, and has been tearing up A+ ball this season. Yet, the Reds have a bit of an infield logjam and can deal from that position of strength to secure a top player available on the trade market.
No matter what they decide to do, it will be interesting for sure.
Stay tuned for more breaking MLB content, including trade deadline information, power rankings and more news from every team.
Featured image courtesy of Reds.com
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