When Riot Phroxzon shared the Patch 14.7 preview Monday, many summoners were surprised to see Lux on the list of buffs. Surely Lux, the golden child of many a Challenger climber and the bane of every low elo player’s existence, cannot need a power increase?
However, player impressions aren’t everything. As it turns out, Lux may be a bit weaker than she appears, despite her tendency to blast players off the face of the Earth. Check out her stats below, and why they may justify Riot’s decision to strengthen her.
[See also: One For All Champion Choices to Keep Things Interesting]
Lux Win Rates
According to League of Graphs, Lux has a 49.9% win rate in ranks Platinum+. While not astonishing, this win rate also doesn’t seem out of the ordinary at first glance.
However, 49.9% surprisingly seems to be within an appropriate threshold for a buff. This becomes clear when examining the other champions receiving buffs in this patch: Nasus has a 49.8% win rate, Galio 50.4%, and Smolder 50.9%. So, Lux is actually a lower win rate than multiple other champions receiving buffs.
But, this doesn’t tell the whole story. She has a higher win rate than many champions who are not receiving changes at all. Alistar and Neeko, for example, both have a 49.2% win rate, and are categorized by Riot as having a similar difficulty level to Lux. Both are also commonly played in the Support role. Neeko is even Support/Mid, same as Lux. So what gives?
Developer Balance Approach
In 2019, RiotRepertoir published a piece about the framework League of Legends Devs use to balance the game. Within that framework are four main groups to consider: average play, skilled play, elite play, and professional play. And in each of these skill levels, they designated subcategories measuring win rate, ban rate, and/or champion presence. In short, champions should ideally be balanced to have appropriate win rates at each level of skill, and shouldn’t show up too much or too little at high ranks. (Ban rates also play into win rate balance at lower levels, but that is not necessarily important here.)
So what does this have to do with Lux? Interestingly, while Lux technically fits within appropriate numbers for every category, she is right on the edge of the acceptable lower range (49%), particularly in the “skilled play” group.
When looking further into Lux’s win rates, she is not performing great at these ranks, particularly when considering her Support role. For example, while Lux’s overall Platinum+ win rates might be a respectable near-50%, her Diamond+ Support win rates tell a different story. She wins 48.7% of the time there. This places her as #30 out of 39 Diamond Support champions. In Emerald, she’s even worse: #32 out of 39.
Additionally, even her Mid role is falling dangerously close to 49% in Diamond: she is currently at 49.6 win rate (although she is still 50.4% in Emerald). While she is #29 out of 46 of Mid Lane champions in Diamond, which is certainly much better than her Support performance, it is also not very promising. Altogether, her performance at these ranks may be a factor contributing to her buff.
Support Trends
Another potential factor contributing to the Lux buff is other Patch 14.7 changes. As Riot Phroxzon states in the preview notes, “a common trend is reducing damage dealt by Supports and increasing utility outputs.”
As anyone who has ever played against a Lux “Support” knows, dealing damage is the name of the game. Since Riot plans to nerf Zak’Zak’s Realmspike, Lux Support will take a huge hit.
But this is not the only contributing factor. With Patch 14.6, Support income was reduced, and changes were made specifically to limit the amount of early gold that they received. Once again, Lux Support feels the effects of these changes acutely in comparison to other Supports. Since she builds regular (full-price) mage items, this serves as a nerf to her early damage, and her potential to gain presence throughout the game.
All of that is to say that Lux may be more in need of a buff than she initially appears. With multiple changes impacting her game trajectory, and an already lackluster Support win rate at high ranks, her 14.7 changes may prevent Lux from becoming too weak, especially in the “skilled play” range.
Overall
While the Lux buff seemed a bit comical to many at first, it turns out that she may actually need it. For players in Emerald and above, and particularly regarding her Support role, Lux is teetering on the edge of becoming overly weak. Her 14.7 buffs could help her correct course.
Featured Image from Riot Games
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