Through a Different Lens: Spica’s Kind of Average 2021

Note: This was written before Spica won his 2021 Summer Split MVP.

One of the worst feelings in the world is when someone doesn’t react to a video you are showing them.

“Hey man, check out this funny video.”

It’s a minute long video but you know that at 45 seconds, they’ll burst with laughter. That’s totally what will happen. 30 seconds have gone by but no response. They begin to crack a smile out of politeness but they totally aren’t prepared for that 45 second moment. The moment comes and goes, with only a minor chuckle coming out.

They didn’t get it.

That’s the way I feel about Mingyi “Spica” Lu.

He’s the man that has been crowned as the future of Team SoloMid. While Soren “Bjergsen” Bjerg remains a key face of the organization, Spica’s likeability and charisma has been pushed towards the front of the line. More importantly, he’s man that has seemingly secured his status as the long-term jungler for Team SoloMid.

Should he though?

Remembering Where We Started From

Historically speaking, the jungler role has always been a question mark for TSM.

It has been a role that hasn’t been figured out for the construct of the team and a role often criticized during weak moments for the organization. Lucas “Santorin” Larsen would be labeled as a “ward.” Maurice “Amazing” Stückenschneider and Dennis “Svenskeren” Johnsen simply didn’t fit the mold of what the team was looking for. And Joshua “Dardoch” Hartnett was Dardoch.

A charismatic jungler coming from their development system was something different, something fresh. Paired with two all-time greats and beloved figures in the space, it was the perfect opportunity for a young jungler to ride the high that came from 2020 summer. With that being said, his summer wasn’t that impressive from a jungler perspective. It was impressive from a TSM jungler perspective.

Being billed as a future of the franchise given Bjergsen’s move to the coaching role was a lot of pressure. TSM didn’t just want Spica to be “the guy,” they needed him to. They would bring in two well respected in-game leaders in Hu “SwordArt” Shuo-Chieh and Tristan “PowerOfEvil” Schrage. Complimented by two additional players with incredibly high ceilings but also incredibly low floors, if TSM was on the same page, they were going to be dangerous.

More importantly, it would bring out the best in Spica.

Individually Ok

Spica’s first full year as the jungler for TSM hasn’t necessarily been that great. We do have the hindsight knowledge that they won’t be attending the 2021 World Championship and while he did have a narrative case for MVP, his stats don’t necessarily reflect that of a MVP player.

Compared among LCS junglers

Spica would clearly become more involved in the early game for TSM. Looking to set TSM’s early game in-motion, his significant increase in his first-blood percentage was a welcomed changed for a team that previously relied on simply executing better in the mid-to-late game. His damage numbers were incredibly concerning. He ranked eighth among junglers in damage per team fight. And it is even tough to make the argument that he would have more of a utility role as SwordArt typically would lead the engage.

His statistical splits in wins and losses do help his case just a bit.

When Sparks Don’t Fly

The early game is incredibly important when defining a jungler’s standing.

TSM had 34 losses in 2021. In 23 of their losses, they had a gold deficit at 10 minutes. In 26 of their losses, they had a gold deficit at 15 minutes. And in 23 of their losses, they saw their gold deficit increase between minutes 10 and 15. They had a 54% win percentage when at a deficit at 10 minutes, a 44% win percentage when at a deficit at 15 minutes and a 47% win percentage when their opponent either increased their gold lead or decreased TSM’s gold lead.

Spica’s individual stats would be slightly different but follow a similar path. In 19 of the losses, he would have a gold deficit against the enemy jungler at 10 minutes. In 23 of the losses, he would have a gold deficit at 15 minutes. And in 24 of the losses, he saw their gold deficit increase between minutes 10 and 15. He had a 51% win percentage when at a deficit at 10 minutes, a 46% win percentage when at a deficit at 15 minutes and a 48% win percentage when his opponent either increase their gold lead or decreased Spica’s gold lead. Fun additional fact, his enemy was able to either increase their gold lead or decrease Spica’s gold lead in 47 out of 81 of the matches.

It does feel as if Spica does struggle in operating from behind—given the context that this was the best regular season team in North America. And that’s the key distinction in the whole conversation—how good is a player individually when their team is great?

What The Competition Tells You

Evil Geniuses did something interesting. For their week 4 match-up against TSM, they would surprisingly give Juan “Contractz” Garcia a shot at the best team in North America. While performing well in academy, the initial impression was that EG was simply playing with house money with the match-up.

Instead, EG would straight-up embarrass TSM. They would secure all of the major neutral objectives, Contractz would completely outpace Spica and TSM got the reality check they desperately needed. They would recover in their week 8 match-up — putting together a decent performance in a losing effort. It is a moment that is somewhat lost on the summer split — given TSM’s excellent summer and EG’s rise towards the top of the standings. But in hindsight, it feels more important.

EG produced a strategy that worked incredibly well. Dignitas would utilize a similar pacing strategy against TSM the following week, allowing Matthew “Akaadian” Higginbotham to get revenge on his former organization.

And in the LCS Championship, it was another tough time for Spica. He would average a gold deficit of 154 at ten minutes and a pitiful 280 damage per minute.

Its Okay to Just Be Okay Until It Is No Longer Okay

It won’t feel weird to see a jungler win the title of ‘Most Valuable Player’ for 2021. Its easily one of the most influential roles. The marksman performances in North America weren’t as good. Top-laners never win the award. And key mid-laners and supports simply didn’t put together the complete year that would give them the nomination.

What does feel weird is the pedestal being given for players that seemingly relied on great team performances rather than being individually excellent. The jungle position has proven to be relatively deep in North America — with more involved and aggressive players gaining more and more spotlight while stylistically passive players are fading into obscurity.

Spica’s individual performance wasn’t anything special and it instead feels like a narrative confirmation is playing more into his MVP story rather than being the best player in NA this year. It is fine to reward consistency, but it isn’t necessarily right to reward it in this way.

His entrance onto the professional stage hasn’t been as glamorous as the headlines read. Its been rough around the edges for TSM and if a few things don’t fall into their favor, we might have had a completely different story about this year.

Because of this, it feels weird to define his first full year as a success. It isn’t a knock on him, its a knock on how narratives can completely disrupt the perception of a player and their value or status.

TSM also didn’t make Worlds again.

After failing to make Worlds for the third time in four years, we’re slowly becoming used to TSM missing the mark. Despite being one of the most important organizations in North American esports, the fall the organization has seen from a League of Legends perspective has been quite astonishing. Poor managerial decisions continue to plague the organization.

Prior to the season, the mission was to build around Spica and it clearly didn’t work. While it could be a combination of not building around him correctly or him not being able to carry them across the finish line, we still have to acknowledge the result at hand.

It likely won’t happen but may, just maybe, a conversation is had about what the future holds for Spica and if he really can be the franchise guy expected of him. Other players have taken the brunt of the blame for TSM’s failure this post-season but it is tough to ignore how little of an impact the first-team jungler when he was needed the most.

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