We have a bracket! The 2024 NCAA Tournament Selection Show tipped off last night and unvieled the new bracket for the best postseason in sports. Now time to stress about who should be in the Final Four and if you are genius enough to pick a perfect bracket. And while this column will not guarantee perfection, hopefully it will help you choose wisely on your journey to potential eternal glory. March Madness is here! Here is a full 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket preview.
EAST REGION
1 UConn vs 16 Stetson
8 Florida Atlantic vs 9 Northwestern
5 San Diego State vs 12 UAB
4 Auburn vs 13 Yale
6 BYU vs 11 Duquesne
3 Illinois vs 14 Morehead State
7 Washington State vs 10 Drake
2 Iowa State vs 15 South Dakota State
Best Matchup: Washington State vs Drake
Washington State is one of the great surprises this season, winning over 20 games for just the second time under Kyle Smith after being picked 10th in the preseason Pac-12 poll. The Cougars have a top 30 defense nationally and will look to keep up the defensive intensity against an offensive minded Drake team out of the Missouri Valley. The Bulldogs beat the Sycamores of Indiana State in the MVC Championship to get into the Tournament. Drake head coach Darian DeVries is a hot name in this year’s coaching carosuel, and his son Tucker, two-time MVC Player of the Year, will almost certainly follow his father to the new destination. Kyle Smith is also a rumored candidate for a couple openings this year, so a run in March will make both of these coaches all the more attractive. A lot on the line in this one.
Dark Horse: BYU
The metric darling of this year’s tournament. The Cougars are currently No. 12 in the NET, No. 16 at KenPom, No. 18 at Bart Torvik, and are also ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25. Now, metrics and rankings aren’t everything, but BYU is a good team having four players who average double-digits and big wins over teams such as Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor. Head coach Mark Pope has his team tied for 5th in their first year in the Big 12 and poised to make a run with their great offense.
Final Four Pick: UConn
Could it have been anyone else? There really is not any explanation needed, but the Huskies are dominant in every facet of the game and are better this year than they were last year when they won the national championship. UConn is No. 1 at KenPom, No. 2 at Bart Torvik and No. 2 in the NET. They have the best offense in the country, one of the best defenses in the country and have the least amount of losses amongst Power Six teams. Dan Hurley is solidifying himself as one of the top dogs in the country, solidifying UConn as one of the top dogs in the country, and are trying to make the Huskies the first repeat national champion for the first time since Florida did it in 2006 and 2007.
WEST REGION
1 North Carolina vs 16 Howard/Wagner
8 Mississippi State vs 9 Michigan State
5 Saint Mary’s vs 12 Grand Canyon
4 Alabama vs 13 Charleston
6 Clemson vs 11 New Mexico
3 Baylor vs 14 Colgate
7 Dayton vs 10 Nevada
2 Arizona vs 15 Long Beach State
Best Matchup: Alabama vs Charleston
A trendy 12-seed pick can be found in the West region with the likes of Charleston. The Cougars are a high scoring team, scoring 70 or more points in 30 of their 34 games this season. And what is the kryptonite of Alabama? Defending. The Crimson Tide rank No. 112 at KenPom in adjusted defense, the worst of any power conference tournament team. The caveat is the Tide rank as the second best offense in the country period at KenPom with an extremely effecient gameplan on that side of the court and Charelston is No. 176 in adjusted defense. This is going to be quite the offensive battle, and Alabama surely has the team to get past Charleston. However, when the Cougars have scored 80 this season, they are 20-0.
Dark Horse: Saint Mary’s
If you go to BartTorvik and sort the data from January 1, Saint Mary’s is the eighth best team in the country only behind Houston, UConn, Iowa State, Purdue, Auburn, Arizona, and Tennessee. The Gaels have lost just one game since December 23, 2023 and that was at home to WCC rival Gonzaga. Randy Bennett’s squad is performing at their best at the right time. They havent made a second weekend since 2010, and a good Grand Canyon team stands in their way in the round of 64. But under the leadership of sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney, the Gaels hope to continue performing like a top 10 team and make a push to Phoenix.
Final Four Pick: Arizona
This team is loaded with great college basketball players. Spearheaded by Caleb Love, the Wildcats are an offensive juggernaut that will give any team’s defense a run for their money. They scored below 70 one time all season, and it was in the Pac-12 Tournament against Oregon. So far under Tommy Lloyd, now in his third year, the Wildcats have not proved to be an effective tournament team. This year should change things for the crew from Tucson. They rank No. 8 in adjusted offense and No. 12 in adjusted defense at KenPom, making them one of the best dual-threat teams in the country. If Arizona can use their skill on both ends and make it to the West Regional final in Los Angeles, they could have a massive crowd advantage over 1-seed North Carolina, Love’s former squad.
SOUTH REGION
1 Houston vs 16 Longwood
8 Nebraska vs 9 Texas A&M
5 Wisconsin vs 12 James Madison
4 Duke vs 13 Vermont
6 Texas Tech vs 11 NC State
3 Kentucky vs 14 Oakland
7 Florida vs 10 Boise State/Colorado
2 Marquette vs 15 Western Kentucky
Best Matchup: Wisconsin vs James Madison
James Madison started their magical season by beating the No. 4 team in the country at Michigan State and are looking to finish it strong by beating the Spartan’s Big Ten foe: the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin were a very up and down team for a lot of the season. They had two early losses to Tennessee and Providence, but followed them up with wins over Virginia and Marquette, who were ranked No. 24 and No. 3 respectively at the time of their games. They had a strong start in conference play, but then went 6-9 in their final 17 games. Hopefully, after winning three games in the Big Ten Tournament and nearly beating Illinois in the final, Wisconsin found their stride. But beating this tough JMU team will be no easy feat. The Dukes are top 60 at KenPom and have a star guard in Terrence Edwards Jr. Good guard play matters in March, and JMU isn’t used to losing this year, having only done it three times. They have already beat one Big Ten titan. Who’s to say they can’t do it again? They will be a trendy 12-over-5 choice.
Dark Horse: Colorado
KJ Simpson, Tristan da Silva, and Cody Williams is one of the best trios you will find in this bracket. They make up for over 60% of Colorado’s points per game average. The Buffs are on a heater right now, winning eight of their last nine games, with the lone loss coming to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship. Williams is an NBA talent, Simpson and De Silva are veteran leaders and their next four leading scorers are a junior and three seniors. Experience and NBA talent is a recipe for success in March. If Colorado can get passed Boise State, look for them to maybe make a run in the tournament.
Final Four Pick: Duke
Talent. Thats the main word to use to explain this pick. You can’t go with the obvious choice every single time, which would be Houston here. Jon Scheyer’s team has been disappointing this season relative to reseason expectations, but the Blue Devils still have a top 10 offense and a top 30 defense nationally, and a lot of NBA talent lead by sophomore big man Kyle Filipowski. Filipowski and co. are a majorly young but fun team that has everything you need to make a Final Four: guard play, NBA talent, veteran leaders, and shooting.
MIDWEST REGION
1 Purdue vs 16 Montana State/Grambling State
8 Utah State vs 9 TCU
5 Gonzaga vs 12 McNeese
4 Kansas vs 13 Samford
6 South Carolina vs 11 Oregon
3 Creighton vs 14 Akron
7 Texas vs 10 Virginia/Colorado State
2 Tennessee vs 15 Saint Peter’s
Best Matchup: Gonzaga vs McNeese
Mark Few vs Will Wade. Wow, what a coaching matchup in the round of 64. Two of the best in the nation going head to head trying to get a spot in Saturday’s slate. This is arguably the best game in the first round and will air Thursday on TBS at 7:15 pm. Gonzaga is in an unfamiliar spot landing a 5-seed, its lowest seed since 2016. The Bulldogs certainly did not have the season they thought they would, but after winning nine of their final 10 games – the lone loss coming to Saint Mary’s in the WCC title game – the Zags are on fire heading into the round of 64. They have a roster than can compete with most teams in the country. McNeese is also in unfamiliar territory, making just its third ever NCAA Tournament appearance and its first since 2002. Wade took over a program that has not had a winning season since 2011-12, kept two players from the prior season, and lead a seemingly new squad to a 30-3 record and an NCAA Tournament berth. Shahada Wells leads the Cowboys, scoring over 17 points per game, and will likely need a strong showing against the Bulldogs if they are going to advance. This one should be fun.
Dark Horse: Texas
Led by one of the great scorers in college basketball history in Max Abmas, Texas has the talent and skill to make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament just like they did a year ago. Tyrese Hunter and Dylan Disu make up the other two pieces to a strong three man core in Austin. Under first full year head coach Rodney Terry, Texas has been the definition of up and down this year, but carries wins over Baylor and TCU with them heading into the round of 64. The Longhorns rank No. 19 in adjusted offense and are the fourth-oldest team in the sport per KenPom and will look to use that skill and experience against the strong defense of Tennessee in the round of 32 – barring it gets past the first round against Virginia/Colorado State. Getting past the Vols will be a tough ask, but if they manage to do it, Texas can surely make a run to Phoenix.
Final Four Pick: Purdue
Zach Edey has become a household name even for college basketball casuals. He is about to repeat as National Player of the Year after leading Purdue to another No. 1 seed while averaging 24.4 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which rank first and third respectively in the nation. The 7’4 giant destroys opposing defenses in so many ways, and he is one of the most dominant college basketball players of all time. His presence, along with Braden Smith, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer surrounding him on the peremiter, makes Purdue a force to be reckoned with this year. We all know what happened last season – hello, Fairleigh Dickinson – but this team is different. The guards are better, Jones has come to town, the rotation pieces do their part, and somehow Edey is even better than he was last year. The Boilermakers have a lot of doubters to prove wrong this go-round, and this version of the team can and will do it.
Nuggets To Know:
- No team has ever lost their opening game in their conference tournament and then won the national championship.
- Since 1983, every national champion made it to at least the semi-finals of their conference tournament.
- Since 2004, every national champion was ranked in the top 12 of the week six AP Top 25.
- Since the release of the NET, every national champion was ranked in the top five on December 15.
- Since KenPom started in the 2001-02 season, every national champion, except UConn in 2014, finished Top 25 in both adjusted offense and defense – that UConn squad was No. 10 in defense, but No. 39 in offense.
These next few come from ESPN’s Keith Lipscomb.
- A 15-seed has won three years in a row, and all three went to at least the Sweet 16.
- In 11 of the 12 tournaments that had the First Four, at least one of the participants advanced to the second round.
- At least one top-4 seed has lost in the first round in 14 of the last 15 tournaments.
- A double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 15 straight tournaments, and 36 of 38 overall.
- All four No. 1 seeds reached the Elite Eight just once in the past 13 tournaments.
- At least one team seeded seventh or worse has reached the Final Four in 9 of the past 10 tournaments.
- A 5-seed has never won the national title, the only seed in the top 8 that has not done so.
- It has been 34 years since a school from a conference with less than four bids won the national title.
Biggest Snub: St. John’s
Rick Pitino is already a Hall of Fame coach, being the only one to win a national championship at two different schools (Kentucky and Louisville). Yet, the college basketball icon almost made more history on Sunday. If St. John’s would have made it into the bracket, Pitino would have been the only coach to ever take six schools to the NCAA Tournament – Boston, Providence, Kentucky, Louisville and Iona were the first five. The Johnnies are No. 32 in the NET, No. 25 at KenPom, and No. 21 at BartTorvik. Indiana State just became the new highest ranked NET team to not make the NCAAs at No. 29, but St. John’s is now the second-highest at No. 32. The previous high was NC State at No. 33 in 2019. The Red Storm reached 20 wins, went positive in the Big East regular season, reached the Big East semis, and had the metrics in their favor, yet somehow are still out of the tournament. Unbelievable decision by the selection commitee.
National Champion: UConn
Tristin Newton. Cam Spencer. Stephon Castle. Alex Karaban. Donovan Clingan. That is the best starting five in all of college basketball, coached by one of the best in the sport. There is not much else to say than good luck to everyone else, because this is UConn’s tournament to lose.
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