Long gone are the days of the high-flying New England offense.
As a lifelong Pats fan, It’s been a tough adjustment going from Tom Brady and Randy Moss to Mac Jones and Devante Parker. The New England Patriots have had to re-invent themselves on the offensive side of the ball in the past few years and the results have been terribly boring. There’s no real explosiveness, no real creativity – it’s all just standard fair for a team that relies solely on their run game.
It’s one thing to be boring in real NFL standards, but it is a-whole-nother level to have a boring offense looking through the lens of fantasy football. We are simple people, us fantasy football folks. People want to see fireworks. We want action. It’s the exciting offenses that produce fantasy football results.
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It pains me to write this article but sometimes the truth hurts. I’m just gonna lay it all out right here. The New England Patriots offense will be a nightmare for fantasy football managers. The positional players aren’t individually weak, but gosh are they going to be rough to follow this season. It’ll be a slog. Let’s get into it.
Where it All Starts: Quarterback
Don’t ask a New England fan about the “quarterback controversy” in Foxboro. At best you’ll get laughed at by the average Mac Jones supporter for such a ridiculous question. Worst case scenario: you find a devout believer in Bailey Zappe, and they’ll give you their dissertation on why he should take over the job. Regardless of which said you personally believe, the same problem remains between both players. They just aren’t fantasy relevant.
What is frustrating about watching Jones command the Patriots offense in 2022 was the unbelievable downgrade in performance from his rookie campaign. In 2021 Mac looked extremely promising and even pushed Ja’Marr Chase for Offensive Rookie of the Year. But a combination of missing weapons and a truly horrific, and I mean horrific, coaching staff in his ear, he massively regressed. It was the opposite of Trevor Lawrence’s experience in the first two season of his NFL career.
Former Pats Offensive Coordinator and Alabama coach Bill O’Brien joins the organization at a pivotal time. He very well could bring this offense back to life. But with Mac being solely a pocket-passer, his fantasy upside is relatively capped. If you are somehow in the small camp of drafters that opt into Mac Jones, you’ll need career highs in both passing yards and passing TD’s from New Englands shot-caller to bring fantasy success.
Maybe if Malik Cunningham takes over fans can see something really fascinating from the Pats.
53-MAN ROSTER UPDATE: When I started writing this, I truly thought the Pats would be keeping multiple quarterbacks. Clearly I was the fool as Bill Belichick had a different plan. Both Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham were dropped at the deadline. Trace McSorely was cut earlier in the week, leaving just Mac Jones in the QB room. I’m keeping all the nonsense about Zappe because it still rings true. Mac Jones will continue being the dude in New England.
A Crowded Wide Receiver Room
One of the fun things about past Patriots rosters was their knack for finding value and success with relatively unknown wideouts. It was really cool to watch guys like Chris Hogan, Julian Edelman and Jakobi Meyers become real starts for fantasy football in recent years. You’d think once the Pats grabbed some known commodities in free agency that they would only add more to this offense.
A quick-witted reader can probably guess that these new names did not end up bringing that spark to the NE offense. You’re here reading a relatively negative article about the Pats pass catchers after all.
The Patriots have an eclectic group of receivers consisting of Devante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster, Kendrick Bourne and a pair of 6th round rookies in Kayshon Boutte and Demario “Pop” Douglas. Last year’s 2nd round pick Tyquan Thorton is hanging around but injuries have kept him sidelined for the majority of his tenure in New England. If you’re not overly impressed with the names listed above, you’re not alone
Much like their quarterback, each of these receivers have shown their ability to be worthwhile fantasy football starts in the past. That should instill some amount of confidence in this crew, and yet their recent years have left a lot to be desired. Smith-Schuster is a player that is absolutely looking to bounce back after what should have been a great season with the Chiefs, but wound up having a relatively quiet Super Bowl season.
To be frank, the case as to why this corps aren’t expected to succeed is better explained by listing off some statistics (like poor separation skills and small target share), but that’s not what this article is about. We saw this group last year fail to bring meaningful results, and I’m hard pressed to see them change much in just one offseason.
The Running Back Roulette
The one position that was primed to be a lock-and-loaded top-12 option was the running back role with Rhamondre Stevenson. He was an absolute fantasy stud last season, and the lone bright spot on an otherwise awful Patriots offense. Heading into 2023 the Pats let go of Damien Harris, opening the door wide open for Stevenson to be a true alpha RB.
That is until the Patriots decided that their younger RBs just aren’t cutting it. Welcome to New England, Ezekiel Elliott! I kind of can’t believe it either, all things considered – though this isn’t the first time the Pats have signed a well-known RB that wanted out of their current team. Zeke brings elite red-zone scoring ability to a team that was one of the worst in football inside the 20-yard line. He can truly play all three downs, and should serve as an excellent back up for Rhamondre when he needs a break.
But this is the Patriots. This won’t be as simple as that.
This running back room is great on paper but just an absolute cluster now in fantasy. Players are now put into the “which Pats RB gets the touchdown this week” gamble every single week. Stevenson will get the majority of the work, that is for certain. But what does the “majority” look like in this offense? Both of these players can catch the ball, who comes in on 3rd down? The addition of Zeke adds a lot of uncertainty to this running back room. Stevenson should still be the go-to draft choice come draft day. There’s just this sinking feeling that Zeke will force himself onto the field more than we would like.
Tight Ends
Speaking of gambling on touchdowns, let’s move to the tight ends. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki were two players that came into the league with plenty of hype around them. When they got a chance to play, they’ve been fine. Not great, but definitely plenty serviceable for their teams. After playing with the Chargers, Henry joined New England and had a great first season. Last season was a downer, but 2023 is looking positive for Mac’s favorite target.
Gesicki joins New England from Miami where he was rarely used thanks to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill hogging targets. He’s had some injuries this offseason but is in line to play week one.
The idea with these two is to have a renaissance of the past Patriot two-TE sets. They tried to replicate this with Henry and Jonnu Smith, however that fall through almost immediately as Smith never got his rhythm as a receiver. Gesicki brings a great amount of athleticism to the role, and should be a considerable step up.
For fantasy football though, do we really care?
Looking at the TE landscape, there are several other tight ends that aren’t sharing the work load. You could draft twelve to fifteen other options that are the sole passing option. The Patriots TEs are going to be splitting about 6ish targets a game. That is not a lot of opportunities for big plays, let alone scoring. These two will be touchdown dart throws for the entire season.
Finally, a Good Defense Limits the Entire Offense
The New England Patriots defense led all other defenses in scoring last year. In this year’s draft they once again focused on defense using a first round pick on Christian Gonzalez, and scoring big on second round DE Keion White. The defense is poised to be great again, which means the offense won’t need to push the pace of the game. A good defense means low scoring, which means the Pats will want to run the clock as much as possible. A slower game means fewer plays. Fewer plays means fewer chances for big scoring plays for fantasy players.
I guess it’s worth saying the NE D/ST could be a good fantasy pick. They start the season against the Philadelphia Eagles, which is not a very exciting weekly start. After that though it should be a constant, strong performing option in your lineup. Hey maybe it’s not all bad for New England!
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