The New England Patriots’ quarterback search

As Tom Brady keeps beating time, it seems like the same debate comes every off-season. Who is the heir to the Tom Brady legacy. Names like Matt Cassel, Ryan Mallet, Brian Hoyer and even Jimmy Garoppolo have had their names mentioned, but no one has been worthy so far and no one has out lasted Brady.

Now they enter another off-season, one with a high draft pick and a 32-year-old back up quarterback and it seems like a 2018 draft class member could be the future for the New England Patriots.

Why it makes sense now:

I feel like I’ve been saying this for years, Tom Brady is turning 41 this off-season and father time is undefeated. With the recent trading of Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots have essentially received a serviceable backup in Hoyer and a second-round pick.

Hoyer has been studying the Patriots playbook for 3+ seasons. He understands it and can teach it to a younger guy getting drafted. Brady is under contract until 2020 with the possibility of restructuring a deal. He would be 42 at the beginning of the 2020 off-season.

That would give a quarterback drafted this season at least two seasons to learn under both Brian Hoyer, who knows Josh McDaniels’ offense, as well as the ability to learn under Tom Brady.

Who would work for the Pats:

New England Patriots

Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith).

By no means am I saying the Patriots should reach in the draft to draft a quarterback, but in recent history they have drafted their guy when he is their at the position. Lets throw two prospects out there the Patriots could possibly draft this season.

The first option could be Luke Falk. Luke Falk is a 6’4″ 205 pound Washington State product. He’s a quarterback who may be a few years away from performing (like many thought Garoppolo would be when he was drafted).

Like mentioned previous, Brady isn’t exactly slowing down and with Garoppolo especially, they have given backups a few years to mature and grow up behind Brady. Falk doesn’t have to come in and perform right away, he just has to learn the system and perform a little more under center.

The second guy could be Riley Fergusun out of Memphis. Obviously teams are fans of not turning the ball over, Fergusun had a 4.1-1 touchdown to Interception rate his senior season at Memphis. He comes in at 6’4″ and weighs around 200 pounds.

He completed 299 of his 474 passes for over 4200 yards. He threw for 38 Touchdowns and nine interceptions in his senior campaign.

Two of Furguson’s biggest strengths are that he has a strong arm and is relatively accurate which can be said about former back up, Jimmy Garoppolo. The two biggest knocks on him are that when he forces throws they tend to be very inaccurate and like Falk he is primarily out of the shotgun.

With 2-3 years I think that both of these quarterbacks can become great quarterbacks. They will thrive in a situation with an established quarterback and an experienced head coach.

To continue the dynasty:

Many people don’t want to admit it, but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick can’t stay around forever. Coach Josh McDaniels has stressed his interest as a head coach and then declined to do just that all at once to come back to the Patriots which means, something is up.

The most important position for an offense winning games is the quarterback and even though Patriots fans haven’t had to worry about who has been under center for the last 18 years it seems like there has to be a younger backup around waiting.

By no means do I think Brady’s numbers will completely drop off a cliff, but there has to be some regression sometime. His body has been taking a beating for over 200 games and it’s fair to assume someday soon he will step away.

If the Patriots turn one of their picks this season into an upper tier quarterback they will be able to prep him for that moment when Brady steps away. Even though it might not be for a few years, father time is undefeated.

 

Featured image from SF Gate.

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Is Dez Bryant a top fantasy option?

Dez Bryant has struggled with injuries and in-season battles in the past two years. Bryant was once a top five receiver in fantasy. From 2012-14, he finished in the top five in fantasy points in the receiver group. But with struggles with injuries and a transition to a new Dallas offense and quarterback, will Bryant return to being the elite fantasy player that he was early in his career?

Throw up the X: 2011-14

After his rookie season, Bryant came to life. In 2011, Bryant became a top option for Tony Romo behind Jason Witten. He finished with 63 receptions, 928 yards and nine touchdowns. He finished in the top 20 that year in fantasy for receivers.

The following season, Bryant broke onto the scene. He had his first season over 1,000 yards and had over 90 receptions and double digits in touchdowns. He finished in the top 10 in receptions (92), yards (1,382) and receiving yards per game (86.4). His 12 touchdowns were top-three. Bryant finished third in fantasy that season.

Dez Bryant fantasy value

Dez Bryant and Tony Romo (Photo by: zimbio.com)

In 2013, he had another solid season. He saw his targets spike from 138 to 160. He finished in the top five in fantasy again under receivers and his 93 receptions ranked eighth. His 13 touchdowns again ranked third.

Bryant did see a small decline in receiving yards with 1,233 and his receiving yards per game (77.1) that both ranked outside the top 10.

However, Bryant did perform in the top two inside the 10-yard line of the red zone. He led the league in targets (16), receptions (11) and touchdowns (9). He finished second in yards (38) and target percentage (43.2).

Bryant developed into a red zone weapon and also ranked in the top 10 in receptions (13) and target percentage (29.9) inside the 20-yard line. He was also second in touchdowns with 10 inside the 20.

2014 was probably Bryant’s best fantasy season to date. He finished third in fantasy points among receivers, his third top five finish in a row. He led the league in receiving touchdowns with 16. Bryant also improved his receiving yards (1,320) and receiving yards per game (82.5), which ranked eighth and 10th respectively.

He did have less receptions (88) but averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game, a career-best that season which ranked third. He also had his best PPR fantasy points per game at 19.8. Bryant also doubled his catches of 20-plus yards with 22 that ranked fifth in 2014.

In those four seasons, Bryant totaled 4,863 yards and 50 touchdowns. During that time, just Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and A.J. Green had more yards than he did. His touchdowns were the most during that timeframe, and no other receiver had more than 43 touchdowns.

Injuries and quarterback issues: 2015-16

Dez Bryant fantasy value

Dez Bryant (Photo by: whatthebuc.net)

Before the season, Bryant resigned with the Cowboys on a five-year, $70 million contract that included $45 million of guaranteed money and a $20 million signing bonus.

In a game against the Giants on Sep. 13, 2015, Bryant had a foot injury. The x-ray revealed a fracture in the foot that required surgery. He returned in week eight and struggled, getting two receptions for 12 yards.

In a season in which he struggled with health issues, he caught 31 passes for 401 yards and three touchdowns. Before the injury, part of Bryant’s success was having Tony Romo as the quarterback. They only played three games together in 2015 as Romo had a back injury.

Bryant played with two other quarterbacks (Matt Cassel and Kellen Moore) that season. All of his three touchdowns came from a different quarterback. On Jan. 6, 2016, he underwent foot and ankle surgeries.

In 2016, his favorite quarterback in the preseason went down with another back injury and rookie Dak Prescott became the starter. It proved again that Bryant missed Romo as the quarterback as he and Prescott only connected on 16 of their first 41 targets in their first five games together.

This led to inconsistent fantasy numbers, as Bryant had just three games with 10 or more points, but two games with less than two points. He also missed three games with a knee injury. However, removing week 17 where they played only one series, Bryant and Prescott came to life.

In the final eight games including the playoffs, Bryant had 66 targets, 43 receptions, 646 yards and eight touchdowns. That’s a 65.2 percent completion rate. It seemed that Bryant came back to being the receiver he once was.

2017 outlook

Dez Bryant fantasy value

Dez Bryant (Photo by: sbnation.com)

In 2017, there is some concern regarding Bryant. Besides adding no receiver help to complement him, Bryant will face Janoris Jenkins twice, Josh Norman twice, Aqib Talib/Chris Harris Jr., Patrick Peterson, Marcus Peters, Desmond Trufant, Jason Verrett/Casey Hayward and Richard Sherman.

In the two matchups with the Giants last year, he was held to just two catches for 18 yards on 14 targets and fumbled once that clinched the Giants win in the second meeting.

The last time he played against Sherman, he totaled just two catches for 12 yards on six targets.

And expect Norman to shadow Bryant this year after not doing so in 2016. In the first three games for Bryant, he plays the Giants at home and then goes to Denver and Arizona on the road. We could see again early season struggles for him.

He has missed 22 games in two seasons. He is also in a run-heavy offense with a great offensive line and a premier running back. The defense in Dallas hasn’t improved, especially in the backfield which could lead to Prescott throwing the ball more if they have to play catch up. That would benefit Bryant but the game plan will be to run the ball to protect Prescott.

But how good will Prescott be if he has to throw to win? That’s a question for another article.

Bryant is a top-10 fantasy receiver that should be drafted somewhere in the third round. Be cautious with his durability, and Prescott worries me this year as he is my top bust for quarterbacks. In some leagues he will be a top receiver for most teams, but he’s a high-end WR2 with a ceiling as a middling WR1.

 

Featured image from reddit.com

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