A blockbuster deal occurred last Thursday night when Former All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey was traded to the San Francisco 49ers. This deal was first reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Despite how talented of a player McCaffrey this move is a questionable one by the 49ers for many reasons. This team is considered by many to be the best overall roster in the league. San Francisco swung for the fences with this trade. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan feel that acquiring McCaffrey could impact this team similarly to how Von Miller impacted the eventual Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams last season.
McCaffrey played his first game for the 49ers this past weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs. He played 28% of the snaps in his first game with the team. McCaffrey had eight rushes for 38 yards and caught both of his targets for 24 receiving yards.
It is hard to argue that San Francisco 49ers didn’t get better in the short term by making this trade. Adding an All-Pro running back to a team this talented could get this team to the next level. However, it could be argued that this move may not have been the wisest for San Francisco to make. Here are the reasons why the 49ers may have been better off not acquiring McCaffrey.
How this trade happened
Following the firing of Matt Rhule in Carolina, there were multiple reports that the Panthers were willing to shop veterans to add draft capital to rebuild this team. The first player that came to mind when this report came out was former All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. He is actually the second notable veteran that started the year with the Panthers to get moved this week. Carolina traded wide receiver Robby Anderson to the Arizona Cardinals for two future Day 3 picks.
McCaffrey was drafted by the Panthers with the eighth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. It did not take long for McCaffrey to emerge as one of, if not, the best running backs in the league. He posted back-to-back 1,000+ plus yard rushing seasons in 2018 & 2019. During the 2019-20 season, McCaffrey became the third player in NFL history to record 1,000+ rushing yards and 1,000+ receiving yards in a single season.
Over the past few seasons, McCaffrey has been elite when he’s been on the field but has dealt with injuries. He missed 23 out of 33 total games during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. This year McCaffrey played in all six games the Panthers played when he was with the team. He rushed for 393 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 85 attempts. McCaffrey also caught 33 of his 43 targets for 277 receiving yards and one receiving touchdowns.
Reason #1: San Francisco already has a deep and talented running back room
It was hard to take San Francisco legitimately as a contender to land McCaffrey because of what they had in their running back room. Many assumed San Francisco did their due diligence on McCaffrey due to the fact that McCaffrey’s father played for Kyle Shanahan’s father when he was the head coach of the Denver Broncos.
Prior to this deal, San Francisco’s running back depth chart would read Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson Jr., Tevin Coleman, rookie third-round pick Tyrion Davis-Price, and undrafted free agent rookie Jeff Mason. Mitchell has been out on Injured Reserve since Week 1 because of an MCL sprain. Wilson Jr. has started in Mitchell’s absence and played well for the 49ers.
Last season Mitchell emerged as the next star running back to play in this offense after rushing for 963 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 207 attempts last season. He was expected to take a leap forward in his sophomore season. There is no reason why Mitchell would not be able to succeed at a high level after he returned from injury. If Mitchell was to struggle they could rely on Wilson Jr. who played well in his absence. San Francisco could also rely on Coleman and Davis-Price to contribute if they struggled to get consistent production in this offense.
Reason #2: Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme doesn’t require elite running back talent for outstanding production
Kyle Shanahan was been an NFL offensive play-caller since 2008. Before landing the 49ers’ head coaching job in 2017 he was the offensive coordinator for multiple teams including the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders*, Cleveland Browns, and Atlanta Falcons. For those teams, he called plays Shanahan has incorporated his father’s wide-zone rushing scheme. Despite how long ago Mike Shanahan had success with this style of offense, the league has still struggled to stop it.
At every single team where Kyle has called plays, he has gotten outstanding production out of a late-round or former undrafted free-agent running back because of how well the wide-zone rushing scheme works. Notable running backs to have outstanding success running for Kyle Shanahan over the years include Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Alfred Morris, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Elijah Mitchell. Five of the eleven running backs listed were undrafted free agents. Three of the remaining six were Day 3 selections.
Shanahan has never had a running back drafted in the first round lead his backfield during his coaching career due to the lack of a need for his team to invest in that kind of talent when the scheme takes imperfect running back prospects with traits into stars. He hasn’t had a former second-round pick running back play a major role for his offense since Ben Tate rushed for 942 yards and four touchdowns in 2011-12. Shanahan’s backfield hasn’t had a leading rusher who was a Day 2 selection since Terrance West edge out Isaiah Crowell in rushing yards with 673 to 607 in 2014-15.
San Francisco’s Super Bowl run during the 2019-20 season was sparked by the breakout of a journeyman special teams player Raheem Mostert. The former undrafted free agent had played for six different teams from the span of 2015-2016 prior to being signed by San Francisco. During the NFC Championship that season Mostert almost broke NFL playoff rushing records when he rushed for 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries against the Green Bay Packers. He now holds second place for rushing yards and touchdowns in a single playoff game in NFL history.
Reason #3: San Francisco has (and will) invest too much into the running back position during the Kyle Shanahan era
Even though Kyle Shanahan has gotten great production out of Day 3 and undrafted free agent running backs, 49ers general manager John Lynch has made some major investments in the running back position since 2017.
In Shanahan’s first full offseason with the team, they signed former Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon to a four-year $30 million deal. Unfortunately due to multiple injuries McKinnon only played one season for the team back in 2020-21.
The following offseason Shanahan reunited with a running back he coached during his time in Atlanta Tevin Coleman. San Francisco signed Coleman to a two-year, $10 million contract. Despite being seen as a free agent additon that could make a major impact for this roster he was outrushed by former undrafted free agents Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida by the end of his first full season with the team.
After Mostert’s breakout season he demanded a trade after the 49ers and him could not agree to a contract extension. They later agreed to a three-year, $8.7 million extension. This would make Mostert the third veteran running back on the 49ers roster at the time to be signed to a starting running back salary. After signing that extension Mostert played in only 9 of the next 33 games San Francisco played due to injury.
San Francisco drafted two running backs during the 2021 NFL Draft. In the third round they took former Ohio State running back Trey Sermon. Then in the sixth round the 49ers drafted Louisiana running back Elijah Mitchell. Surprisingly Mitchell surpassed Sermon on the team’s depth chart during training camp to be the team’s backup. Then when Mostert suffered a season-ended injury week one Mitchell was the team’s starting running back for the majority of the season. Sermon on the other hand struggled to find a role in this offense and was cut prior to the start of the 2022-23 season despite being taken with a third round pick a year prior.
One of the major reasons why San Francisco let go of Sermon was because they shockingly drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Many believed there were plenty of better running backs available for San Francisco when they took Davis-Price. Also running back was not considered a major need for this roster after how well Mitchell played the year before and with running backs like Sermon and Jeff Wilson Jr. behind him. Davis-Price came into the season as the team’s third-string running back. It is extremely likely that the 49ers make Davis-Price a healthy scratch for the rest of the 2022-23 season once Elijah Mitchell is activated off of Injured Reserve.
Reason #4: The combination of McCaffrey’s injury history and San Francisco’s track record of recent running back injuries is worrisome
Christian McCaffrey’s career has been defined by two major points. He is the best offensive skill player in the league when utilized as a duel-threat weapon. McCaffrey also is known for being overused which has been led to multiple injuries over the past few seasons. He has missed 59% of Carolina’s games over the past three seasons due to injury.
San Francisco’s offenisve scheme is also known for two things, turning unproven or overlooked running backs into stars and running their ball carriers into the ground. The 49ers’ run heavy scheme has led to multiple notable running backs missing significant time due to injury. Former 49ers starting running backs Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Raheem Mostert, and Elijah Mithcell have all missed significant time due to injury because of their high usage in this offense. It is also worth being said that all (outside of McKinnon) have sustained great success playing in this scheme.
The 49ers have a ton of weapons on offense besides McCaffrey in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. So the 49ers don’t have to give McCaffrey the same usage he saw in Carolina. However, it is hard to see San Francisco limit his usage too much after giving up a large package of picks to acquire him. Kyle Shanahan must balance McCaffrey’s usage to make sure he could stay healthy for the rest of the season and use him enough in this offense for this trade to be worth all the draft capital they traded for him.
Reason #5: San Francisco already lacked draft capital following the Trey Lance trade
Before the season started San Francisco was without their first round pick because of their trade back in 2021 to move up from 12th to 3rd overall to draft Trey Lance. They traded their 2021 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 compensatory third-round pick, and 2023 first-round pick to draft Trey Lance. That blockbuster deal hasn’t paid off for the 49ers yet since Lance has only started 4 of 24 games for the team since being drafted. Lance has been held out of the starting lineup due to lack of readiness during his first season and a freak season ended injury this year.
Despite being without their first round pick going into the year, San Francisco traded their next three (non-compensatory) selections and a Day 3 pick next year to acquire McCaffrey.
The 49ers are one of the more modern front offices that are not afraid to trade major draft capital and valuable assets in a blockbuster deal. San Francisco’s General Manager John Lynch has made multiple notable trades since 2017. A few of them include:
- Trading down from the second overall pick in 2017
- Trading back into the first round in 2017 to select Rueben Foster 31st overall
- Trading a 2018 second-round pick for an unproven Jimmy Garoppolo
- Trading former All-Pro DeForest. Buckner for a first-round pick in 2020
- Trading up late in the 2020 NFL Draft to select Brandon Aiyuk
- Trading a 2020 second-round pick for Dee Ford
- Trading both third and fourth-round picks in 2020 for Emmanuel Sanders
- Traded a package of draft picks of a 2020 fifth-round pick and 2021 third-round pick for All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams
- Trading a package of draft picks including their 2021 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 third-round pick, and 2023 first-round pick to draft Trey Lance in 2021
- Trading a package of their 2023 second-round pick, 2023 third-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, and 2024 fifth-round pick for Christian McCaffrey in 2022
Their division rival Los Angeles Rams and their general manager Les Snead are known for trading away all their draft capital for immediate upgrades on the roster. They have adopted the mentality of “F*** them picks”. However, John Lynch and the 49ers have arguably made the same amount if not more blockbuster trades since 2017.
Before the 49ers made this deal they should have thought more about how this mentality has framed the Rams roster to be the way it is right now. Currently, the Rams are having an extremely disappointing season because their extremely thin roster is being exposed due to injuries and major losses in free agency. Draft picks are used to replace below-average starters and create depth at vital positions. Los Angeles is now in a nose dive after their Super Bowl victory because they have no depth on their roster and have missed on a few of the draft picks they have used recently. This could very well be the future of the 49ers after trading seven draft picks in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft over the past two seasons.
It is wild that the 49ers have traded three first-round picks, a second-round pick, two third-round picks, a fourth-round pick, and a fifth-round pick for Trey Lance and Christian McCaffrey over the past two seasons. But the. most shocking fact of this deal was tweeted by PFF’s Trevor Sikkema shortly after the trade was reported.
Sikkema tweeted that the 49ers have invested seven draft picks into the running back position since 2021. Those draft picks include the 2021 third-round pick used on Trey Sermon, the 2021 sixth-round pick used on Elijah Mitchell, the 2022 third-round pick used on Tyrion Davis-Price, and a package of draft picks used to acquire Christian McCaffrey.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to invest that much draft capital in a position where the player could only have a major impact on a roster for a maximum of 4-6 seasons before they are past their peak. Now add the fact that Kyle Shanahan’s offense doesn’t need a premier running back to be near the top of the league in rushing and the lack of draft capital this team has had since the blockbuster trade they made a year ago and this trade gets puzzling. It could all be worth it if San Francisco wins a Super Bowl in the near future. But there is a lot more risk involved in this deal than many have analyzed or discussed to this point.
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