Before the season, sportsbooks will release a number of wins they predict each NFL team to win during the regular season. Gamblers can choose to bet the over/under on the win total. Predicting each NFL team’s over/under isn’t easy, as each game result impacts so much.
Win totals found here.
Last season: 15-17
Buffalo Bills- Over 10.5 wins
The Bills lose Stefon Diggs and a lot of secondary pieces, but have a lot of their core returning. At the end of the season, the Bills focused on running the ball and it paid off. That will likely be the route they go this season, as they don’t have a lot of proven pass-catchers on the roster. They won 13 games two years ago and 11 games last year, so they can win more than 10.5 again in 2024.
Miami Dolphins- Over 9.5 wins
Although they will have some issues getting after the quarterback, Mike McDaniel has the offense set up well for another season of success. They have added more pass-catchers and runners to the offense, which should mean they can have more success this season. Keeping Tua Tagovailoa healthy is always an issue, but going over 9.5 wins and making the playoffs should be in the cards.
New England Patriots- Under 4.5 Wins
The Patriots have started a rebuilding process. Jacoby Brissett will be the bridge quarterback and he has been good in that role, but there is limited talent on the roster. Some of their best defensive players either won’t be with the team or have medical issues. Christian Barmore has blood clots and Matthew Judon was traded to Atlanta.
New York Jets- Over 9.5 wins
Having a healthy Aaron Rodgers this season, should allow the Jets to improve on their seven wins from last year. The defense is stout and Rodgers will have a running game to work with, especially with new additions to the offensive line.
Baltimore Ravens- Over 10.5 wins
The Ravens won 13 games last season and Lamar Jackson won the MVP. While there were some losses on the offensive line and on defense, the Ravens have had players fill in well before. Jackson now has Derrick Henry to help take some of the rushing load off of his hands as well.
Cincinnati Bengals- Over 10.5 wins
The Bengals won nine games last season and that was with Joe Burrow missing time. They have some key losses for this year, mainly D.J. Reader on the defensive line, but have some nice new additions too. Cincinnati will have more experience at safety this year and should have more weapons at wide receiver. If the run defense can hold up, the Bengals can compete for the AFC.
Cleveland Browns- Under 8.5 wins
Cleveland won 11 games behind a great defense in 2023. The quarterback play has been subpar and it will be hard for the defense to replicate that performance. In a tough division, the Browns could underachieve this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Under 8.5 wins
The Steelers have two options at quarterback, but neither may pan out. Their offense will likely have trouble moving the ball consistently, which will put a lot of pressure on the defense. With a tough division, it will be tough to get to nine wins.
Houston Texans- Over 9.5 wins
After C.J. Stroud had a fantastic rookie season, the Texans have added support for him with Stefon Diggs. Demeco Ryans has the defense under control and added several key players. In a manageable division, a return to the playoffs looks likely for the Texans.
Indianapolis Colts- Over 8.5 wins
Indianapolis will be putting a lot of faith in Anthony Richardson, who missed most of his rookie season. He has the potential to be a great player, but also is inexperienced and could suffer more injuries with the amount he’ll need to run.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Over 8.5 wins
The Jaguars won nine games last season and that’s when things didn’t go as planned. With a revamped receiver room and some good pass rushers, the Jaguars can hit the over again.
Tennessee Titans- Under 6.5 wins
Will Levis had some ups and downs as a rookie. The Titans are trying to improve the offensive line, running game and develop him all at the same time. While the results may come it may not happen this season.
Denver Broncos- Under 5.5 wins
There has been a lot of talent leaving the building for the Broncos in the last few years under Sean Payton. Bradley Chubb still hasn’t been adequately replaced. The Broncos will be starting Bo Nix at quarterback, who has his own set of issues. With a rookie quarterback it will be tough to make a push for the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs- Over 11.5 wins
The Chiefs have kept most of the core together. With Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce being aided by Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, the offense can be effective. The defense will be good with Steve Spagnuolo calling it again this year.
Las Vegas Raiders- Under 6.5 wins
Antonio Pierce is a good motivator, but doesn’t have a lot of good pieces to work with. The quarterback position could hold the Raiders back from really moving forward, as Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew will be starting. They don’t have the greatest players, other than Davante Adams, to utilize.
Los Angeles Chargers- Under 8.5 wins
Could three teams in the same division hit the under? The Chargers are dealing with an injured Justin Herbert. He won’t have many experienced receivers to throw to, so the running game will have a lot on its plate. Jim Harbaugh can turn things around, but it could take some time.
Dallas Cowboys- Over 9.5 wins
The Cowboys may not do well in the postseason, but they have won 12 games in each of the last three seasons. They have some notable contract disputes going on, but the Cowboys have a lot of talent, especially given their division to win at least 10 games.
New York Giants- Under 6.5 wins
The Giants lost Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller this offseason. The offense may take a step back, even with the addition of Malik Nabers. Brian Burns will help the defense, but they still have major holes that can be exploited.
Philadelphia Eagles- Over 10.5 wins
Philadelphia really struggled down the stretch last season, but they still have one of the most talented rosters in the league. They won 11 games last season despite their slide and drafted well this offseason to help in areas of need, including cornerback Quinyon Mitchell.
Chicago Bears- Under 8.5 wins
The Bears have done a lot to build up their roster, but they are in a tough division. Caleb Williams will have the tough task of leading the team to the playoffs as a rookie, which could prove to be tough. The defense played well at the back end of last year, but still lack a consistent pass rush.
Detroit Lions- Over 10.5 wins
Detroit went to the NFC Championship last season and shouldn’t expect too much of a drop off. The offensive line remains talented and the defense should be improved with their additions this offseason, including cornerback Terrion Arnold from the draft.
Green Bay Packers- Over 9.5 wins
After starting last season off slow, Jordan Love really heated up down the stretch. If he can continue on that pace, the Packers can win 10 games again this season. Jeff Hafley comes in to run the defense, which should see some improvements, especially with the signing of Xavier McKinney at safety.
Minnesota Vikings- Under 7.5 wins
J.J. McCarthy was lost for the season, so Sam Darnold will start the whole season. He’ll have Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones to help him move the chains. It still will be tough, as Jordan Addison is already banged up in camp. The defense has potential with Brian Flores running the show, but the offense may not score enough points to keep up with their competition.
Atlanta Falcons- Under 9.5 wins
The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins, but how he plays after tearing his achilles remains to be seen. They traded for Matthew Judon, but their defense still looks like it struggles. It is an easier division, but one quarterback likely doesn’t fix all the Falcons problems.
Carolina Panthers- Under 5.5 wins
After a bad season last year, the Panthers didn’t do enough to improve the roster this offseason. Bryce Young may see a boost with the team hiring Dave Canales, but it will take more than that to really improve the team from last year.
New Orleans Saints- Over 7.5 wins
The Saints may not be an exciting team, but they always seem to finish right in the middle of the pack. They won nine games last season and with a lot of the roster returning, that result is possible again this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Over 7.5 wins
Tampa Bay made the playoffs last season with nine wins. Baker Mayfield had a great year, pairing well with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. In an easier division, the Buccaneers can push for a playoff spot again this season.
Arizona Cardinals- Under 7.5 wins
Arizona is expected to improve in 2024, especially with their drafting of Marvin Harrison Jr., but going from four to eight wins is a bit too much. Their defense still isn’t the greatest, so even if the offense does well, the Cardinals could hit the under.
Los Angeles Rams- Over 8.5 wins
Losing Aaron Donald is a tough blow, but the Rams still have a lot of talent. With Cooper Kupp healthy to pair with Puka Nacua, the Rams’ should have an offense that is tough to match up with. Sean McVay can have this team competing for a playoff spot.
San Francisco 49ers- Over 11.5 wins
Whether Brandon Aiyuk is on the 49ers or not, they still have the most complete roster in the league. Kyle Shanahan knows how to scheme for the offense and the defense has playmakers at every level. They should hit the over and be the no. 1 seed in the NFC.
Seattle Seahawks- Over 7.5 wins
Mike Macdonald takes over a team that has some unique players on defense to use. The offense has plenty of weapons, so the Seahawks should be able to score and defend. A path the playoffs is very conceivable for Seattle.
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