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NFL: Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Julian Edelman

The Game Haus slipped into the red last week with a 6-7-1 mark against the spread. However, with a 76-66-6 record for the season, weeks in the red have been a rarity this year. On to Week 11. picks are bolded, outright upsets have an asterisk, and all spreads are from at the time of writing.

Thursday Night:

Packers at Seahawks (-2.5)- Folks, the Packers are not that good. The only reason they beat Miami as soundly as they did is the Dolphins are awful in the red zone. The Seahawks may not be much better. Still, Seattle is at home, facing a team that is being forced to travel a long way on a short week, and has the top-ranked rushing offense facing the 22nd ranked rush defense this week. Sea 28 GB 17


Lions at Panthers (-4)- This line is not as straightforward as it looks. The Panthers are in the thick of the NFC playoff picture and the Lions are fading in a hurry. However, two of the Lions wins this year have come in a spot like this, at home as an underdog against high powered offenses with great to above average quarterbacks. That should give the public pause, but the number is too small not to swallow. Car 27 Det 21

Bengals at Ravens (No line)- For now, the only way to treat this game is as a pick ‘em. We don’t know if Joe Flacco will play. If he does not, we don’t even know who will take his place. Given that, as well as the fact that the Ravens are struggling to begin with. The Bengals are the only play here. A beating at the hands of the Saints was ugly, but not a reason to bail on them. Cin 23 Bal 17

Cowboys at Falcons (-3)- Last week, the public was convinced that Atlanta had hit their stride and the Cowboys were dead, then the games happened. Anything can happen here, but Atlanta is built to play on the fast turf of their home stadium. Even when things are going well, Dallas is a slow plotting team for the most part. Speed wins here. Atl 24 Dal 17

Bucs at Giants (-1.5)- The Bucs are the perfect team for the Giants to build off last week’s win against. The Bucs are on pace to be one of the worst statistical defenses ever. We were all reminded last week that Eli Manning has some playmakers if he can get the ball to them. This is a great matchup for that. Nyg 21 TB 17

Texans (-3) at Redskins- The Redskins may be good enough to win the NFC East this year, but this team shouldn’t scare anyone. Despite giving up only three points last week, they did give up 500 yards. This is not a good sign with one of the hottest offenses in football coming to town. Hou 27 Was 20

Steelers (-6) at Jaguars- The Steelers have not lost since September. The Jags have not won since September and Blake Bortles is still their quarterback. This number is way too small. Pit 34 Jac 17

Anderw Luck

Titans at Colts (-2)- The Titans have been great for two weeks. Andrew Luck has help now and has been great all year long with 26 touchdown passes. Trust the bigger sample size, even if the spike in the Titans’ offense ends up being more than a two-week thing. The Colts are proving each week that they are no longer a one-man team. Ind 27 Ten 17

Broncos at Chargers (-7)- The Broncos will get some key guys back after the bye. The Chargers don’t have much of a home field advantage playing in a soccer stadium. Denver has played good teams to the wire all year long including the Chiefs twice, the Rams and the Texans. There is no reason that trend should not continue here. The trend of the Broncos finding ways to lose these games will also continue. Lac 24 Den 23

*Raiders at Cardinals (-4.5)- Another week, another matchup between two of the worst squads the NFL has to offer. The Raiders have not put up more than 10 points in a game in almost two months. Arizona has only put up 20+ points once all season. So, watch this one at your own risk. All the really bad teams in the NFL are fairly evenly matched. This is one of Oakland’s last realistic chances to join the two-win club that everyone else already has. So, why not take a stab at a mini-upset. Oak 16 Ari 13

Eagles at Saints (-9)- This is the best bet of the week. With the way these teams looked last week, the public is convinced the Saints will never lose again and the Eagles will never win again. Philadelphia is suffering a massive Super Bowl hangover and the Saints are the best team in football, but Carson Wentz is getting more comfortable post-knee injury each week. Basically, anytime you get a roster with as much talent as the Eagles and anything more than a touchdown, you are a fool not to take it. NO 30 Phi 24

*Vikings at Bears (-2.5)- The Bears have been able to get out to early leads and keep the training wheels on Mitchell Trubisky late in games for the last month. However, these division rivals each have legit playoff hopes. Thus, that is unlikely to happen here. All three of Chicago’s losses have come in one-possession games.
The Bears offense struggles when forced to play a complete game. Something this matchup will force them to do. As good as the defense for the Bears has been, opponents have been able to score some weeks, the Brock Osweiler led Dolphins put up 31. The Vikings will be able to do just enough here. Min 23 Chi 20


Todd Gurley

Chiefs at Rams (-2.5)- After a run of average at best matchups, Monday Night Football finally gets a gem as these two one-loss teams do battle. The Rams have been gashed on the ground in recent weeks. Kareem Hunt is certainly capable of exploiting that here, but the Chiefs have fallen into the trap of being a bit pass happy at times this year. With a talent like Patrick Mahomes, it is an easy trap to fall into. The Rams may also nudge Kansas City in that direction thanks to MVP candidate Todd Gurley bleeding the clock. The Chiefs are too good to get blown out, but this is just a bad matchup for them. Lar 38 Kan 28

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