Joe’s Average Takes is a weekly column where I will go through some of the opinions thrown out by the mainstream media or on Twitter. Are these takes enlightened or just average? I’ll go through that on each edition of Joe’s Average Takes. (Yes there is some irony with Joe’s average take calling out other average takes)
On social media, Emmanuel Acho, a Fox Sports analyst, has stated that Caleb Williams should consider sitting out the rest of the season. He referenced it as a business decision.
So let’s start with the top point he is making. The chances of another Heisman are very slim. Williams’s play has put him in a position where a repeat performance would take a Herculean effort down the stretch. This is one of the most hyped players in the last few years. He can provide stats and big games at the end of the year to work himself back into the conversation. Is it likely? No. People have seen him struggle in big games twice already. But it is possible. It is hard to believe that Williams would be so focused on winning another Heisman that he would just give up on the season when he wasn’t favored to win the award. So will move to the second big reason Acho lists as to why Williams is considering sitting out the season.
He also mentions that USC has a very limited chance to make the College Football Playoff. That is true. No two-loss team has ever made the CFP. Now, there are seasons in college football history where two-loss teams can win a championship. LSU won the National Championship following the 2007 season with two losses.
I’m not saying it’s probable, but with a crazy season already, it is possible. There are only six undefeated power five teams remaining. Ten one-loss power five teams are still around to compete for the College Football Playoff spots. There are going to be loads of matchups between these teams to help the CFP picture become more clear.
What makes things more interesting this season than in years past is some conferences have ditched the division structure and will now just be taking the two best teams in their championship. The ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 (more than half of the Power Five) will use this format. That means there will be tougher games for some of the best teams to manage in those conference championships. Teams with one loss may be knocked down to two more easily.
If there are more two-loss teams this season, then USC still has a decent shot to make the CFP. They only have one conference loss so far this season, so they could make the Pac-12 Championship and win to put themselves back in the conversation.
Acho says this is unlikely and I agree with him. USC’s defense has some legitimate problems and Williams has to play outstanding games down the stretch to even make this an idea. But when there is still a path (even a narrowly small one), lacing them up still seems like it would make sense.
Acho says that college football has changed and implies that the sport is emphasizing selfishness. He mentions that plenty of players are entering the transfer portal for better situations, so why shouldn’t Williams sit out?
This totally ignores the fact that Wiliams would be sitting out for the rest of the season, while most of the time players enter the portal to play more or be closer to family while they are going through health issues. It is a different situation completely. Those players are looking for new opportunities. Williams would be trying to preserve his health. Players also normally enter the portal after the regular season or in the offseason. Sometimes players will leave a program early to hit the portal and that is more aligned with what Williams is doing. It’s apples and oranges to use that comparison.
Athletes protecting themselves is fine, but Williams likely already has a huge insurance policy on himself in case of injury this season. On top of that, he has made plenty of NIL money this season. Fans have probably seen him in commercials such as the Nissan Heisman House along with plenty of others. So he isn’t making as much money as he could in the NFL, but let’s not make it out to be that he hasn’t already set himself and his family up well financially. If Acho wants to mention that the sport is changing because of the transfer portal, he should also mention that Williams is getting plenty of money (and insurance money if he gets hurt) right now as USC’s quarterback (he didn’t mention it).
Williams has been hyped up as the next great NFL Draft prospect. He is very good and I personally would take him at no. 1 overall if the draft were today. But he isn’t on the level of all-time prospects like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck. This season has proven that. The quarterback class features several good players and the separation between him and the next-best quarterbacks isn’t as great as people think. On top of that, some players at other positions are better prospects (looking at Marvin Harrison Jr. specifically).
So playing games down the stretch would help him cement himself as the no. 1 overall pick. He has shown that he can play out of structure, has great arm talent and can make things happen. Williams has also had issues getting rid of the ball quickly, handling pressure in the pocket and throwing too many passes that could be intercepted.
Trevor Sikkema wrote an article about Williams’s struggles at PFF. It mentions that he takes longer to throw than any other considered draft prospect at 3.21 seconds per pass. Now, some of this is explained by his escapability, but he also isn’t hitting his easy reads and getting the ball out of his hands quickly in structure. For reference, Sikkema references that Justin Fields had the longest time to throw at the NFL level last season and he is currently experiencing struggles.
On top of that, Williams throws too many 50/50 balls up. Those have resulted in turnovers this year, when last year it just seemed to work out for him. He sometimes has too much faith in his arm and others too much faith in his receivers. Protecting the football over the next few weeks could really help his stock.
Again, I have to reiterate, that right now, I would take Williams first overall if I needed a quarterback. If I didn’t, I’d trade the pick for a king’s ransom. I would still like to see him compete the rest of the way and see if he could make more of his situation at USC.
When he gets drafted into the NFL, he will likely be in a bad situation. At USC, he currently doesn’t have the greatest defense. In the NFL, the team will have struggles and he is going to have to overcome that. Seeing how he handles adversity down the stretch could be a huge asset to his draft stock.
Now, there are plenty of rumors around Williams and the NFL. The first is that he may return to USC if the teams selecting early aren’t up to his standards. If this rumor has any truth to it, then WHY THE HELL is this even a conversation to start with? Sitting out this season does no good if he may just return to college next season. And if he’s actually considering that, then he clearly is happy with suiting up and the money his making at USC.
The next rumor is that he wants partial ownership of the team that drafts him. This currently is not even possible in the NFL. So that’s pretty crazy, but I can’t imagine giving ownership to someone who (hypothetically) gave up when there was still a (even a minimal) chance that things going his way this season.
Now that there is more information and context around this it is easier to analyze. I have to make things clear here. Williams has never given any indication that he would sit out. He even talked about rebounding from two losses and fighting for the end of the season. This criticism is specifically on Acho’s take.
Why is Acho putting this out in the universe? He could say that he is trying to help Williams make the best decision for the future. But that could be done with a phone call or a one-on-one meeting. His job is to get attention for his takes and he has done it (as evidenced by this article). What makes things worse is he is trying to devalue college football even though he works at a network that benefits from college football’s success. To some people college football matters. Commitment to teammates matters. Handling adversity matters. Hell, even NIL money matters. And if Williams follows through with the season, maybe he’d be showing that those things matter to him as well. That could be in the best interest of Williams too.
My take? Prospects shouldn’t quit on their teams midseason. Skipping bowl games is one thing, but committing to play and then giving up midseason is another thing. I’d love to see Williams improve down the stretch and see how he handles adversity. If he had quit before the season (like Acho mentions Ja’Marr Chase did) I’m fine with that. College football operates on one-year scholarships and a cycle that goes around the season. Quitting on the team now shouldn’t be on Williams’s mind, nor should ownership of an NFL team, it should be on winning games down the stretch and improving his play each week.
Verdict: Average Fan Take
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