Yesterday, Oakland Athletics prospect and Oklahoma Quarterback, Kyler Murray tweeted out he was entering the NFL draft.
This is unfortunate for the Oakland Athletics, as they drafted him number nine overall in the 2018 MLB draft.
Here is an analysis of Murray’s decision to declare for the NFL draft.
The Oakland Athletics drafted Kyler Murray number nine overall in this years draft and was given a $4.66 million signing bonus. An agreement was made between the Athletics and Murray that would allow for him to play his junior year as quarterback for Oklahoma before joining the A’s. A huge wrench was thrown into the plan when Murray won the Heisman and led the Sooners to another playoff appearance. This year he threw for 4,361 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also rushing for 1,001 yards and 12 touchdowns. This is despite his small stature–Murray is only 5-foot-10 and weighs 195. He would be one of the smallest quarterbacks in the NFL.
It was reported that Murray and his agent asked for upwards of $15 million from the Oakland A’s for him to not play in the NFL. The A’s are in talks with the MLB to allow them to offer Murray a major league contract by putting him on their 40-man roster. If the league allows this, Murray would be given the extra money he is looking for and would, in turn, keep him from entering the NFL. The A’s would still be allowed to put Murray in the minors for a few years. Now Murray’s decision to enter the NFL instead of honoring his MLB contract is due to a number of reasons. The main two reasons seem to come down to money and his love for the game.
Opinion: Kyler Murray will 100% play football if taken in first round of NFL draft. Image Courtesy of USA Today.
If money is the main reason Murray is joining the NFL, then he might be mistaken. The average salary of MLB players in 2018 was $4.52 million compared to only $2.07-2.99 million for NFL players according to Forbes. At the same time, joining the NFL is the faster way to get paid. It takes most MLB players at least two-three years in the minors before being called up. Then it takes another three years before they reach arbitration, and another three before they can reach free agency. While Murray would be paid sooner in the NFL, the payday would be larger in the MLB if he is able to live up to his potential. Despite the payday, Murray wouldn’t be entering MLB free agency till he was all most 30. At this point, he would have a year or two before his inevitable decline due to age.
Now if Murray were to enter the NFL, he would be paid sooner than he would be in the MLB. He would also earn more on his rookie contract than his bonus from the A’s. Last years lowest signing bonus for a first-round pick in the NFL was $4.97 million. This was higher than Murray’s signing bonus with the Oakland Athletics, $4.66 million. For football, rookie contracts are based on the rookie scale. According to Alexis Chassen of SB Nation, this was what the rookie wage scale was based on for 2018.
“Teams had money allocated against the salary cap before the draft, based on the rookie pool and the league’s salary cap, which in 2018 is $177.2 million. Each team’s rookie pool will look a little different based on their salary cap situation, but a safe calculation is $480,000 (the first-year minimum) times the number of draft picks.”
From last year’s first-round draft picks, the highest signed contract was $32.68 million whereas the lowest signed was $9.47 million. Many scouts have Murray projected to go in the first round and would sign anywhere from $11 to 35 million dollars on his rookie contract. This is based on what rookie first-round picks made in the NFL over the last two years. Over the past two years, the number one pick signed a contract worth $30.41 million and $32.68 million respectively. Now over the past two years, the last pick in the first round made $8.89 million and $9.47 million respectively. Now going off the same pattern, it is safe to say the scale has risen upward between one and two million dollars. Murray would be in line for a decent payday if he does indeed go in the first round. But if Murray wants to make more money in his career, baseball would be the best option.
It seems that despite his contract with the A’s, Murray is choosing to join the NFL because of his love for the game. Adam Schefter tweeted the following regarding Murray’s decision.
Murray is following his desires over a huge payday to enter the NFL. The A’s could still change Murray’s mind with a large check. After his very successful season as Oklahoma’s quarterback, it seems that Murray has made up his mind. Murray can still choose to honor his MLB contract and February will tell what happens. Murray is required to show up to spring training for the A’s on February 15 while the NFL combine starts on February 26. If the A’s end up offering enough money, Murray will show up to Spring Training, but if he decides to follow his heart, look for him to be at the NFL combine.
Featured Image From USA Today’s FTW.
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