Minnesota Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson filed for salary arbitration this week. With a little over eight million in cap space, Wild General Manager Bill Guerin has been caught in a deadlock until Gustavsson’s new deal is hammered out. Although both sides would most likely like to avoid an arbitration hearing, many are wondering what Gustavsson’s contract might look like.
The NHL is one of two North American professional leagues that offer salary arbitration. In the NHL, salary arbitration is used to settle contract disputes between teams and restricted free agents. The league will determine a date for a hearing between the two parties, during which each side will present their case. Other NHL players’ salaries and the team’s salary cap situation cannot be used to argue their side. After hearing both cases, a neutral third-party arbitrator will determine the player’s salary award.
The organization and player can still negotiate a contract prior to the arbitration hearing. In fact, only two players in the last three years have actually completed the salary arbitration process. If the team and player reach a contract agreement prior to the hearing, the hearing will be canceled.
After being acquired from Ottawa in a pure hockey trade for Cam Talbot last offseason, Gustavsson burst onto the scene. By the end of the year, Gustavsson had full control over Minnesota’s net, usurping respected veteran Marc-Andre Fleury. Although unexpected, Gustavsson’s breakout campaign brought some much-needed stability to Minnesota’s goaltending. Now at the end of his two year, $787,500 contract Gustavsson is expecting a payday after the success of last season.
Contract Year Stats:
Age: 24
Games Played: 39
Save Percentage: .921
Goals Against Average: 2.10
Goals Saved Above Expected: 24.2
Quality Start Percentage: 73%
Jake Oettinger
Contract Year Stats:
Age: 23
Games Played: 48
Save Percentage: .914
Goals Against Average: 2.53
Goals Saved Above Expected: 1.4
Quality Start Percentage: 58.7%
Contract Signed: 3 years x $4 million
Although Gustavsson’s regular season numbers look better, Oettinger had an incredible playoff in his contract year. He posted a league-leading .957 save percentage and a stingy 1.81 goal against average, both significantly better than Gustavsson’s .921 and 2.33 from last postseason. Oettinger was also a first-round pick with a higher projected ceiling than Gustavsson who was taken in the second round. Consider Oettinger’s deal the absolute ceiling for Gustavsson both in term and salary cap hit.
Alex Nedeljkovic
Contract Year Stats:
Age: 25
Games Played: 23
Save Percentage: .932
Goals Against Average: 1.90
Goals Saved Above Expected: 9.6
Quality Start Percentage: 65.2%
Contact Signed: 2 years x $3 million
Nedeljkovic offers an interesting comparison. His numbers are better than Gustavsson’s, but he achieved those in about half the games. Nedeljkovic’s playoff numbers from that season are on par with Gustavsson’s as well. Both also played on well-structured teams that had an eye on a deep playoff run. The most interesting point about Nedeljkovic’s deal was the team who signed it. Nedeljkovic played for the Carolina Hurricanes in his contract year. Instead of signing the restricted free agent, Carolina dealt the player to Detroit who in turn signed him to the contract. It’s unlikely the Wild similarly deal Gustavsson this summer, but with the Wild in dire need of cap space anything is possible.
Alexander Georgiev
Contract Year Stats:
Age: 23
Games Played: 34
Save Percentage: .910
Goals Against Average: 3.04
Goals Saved Above Expected: -0.1
Quality Start Percentage: 53.1
Contract Signed: 2 years x $2.425 million
Despite being signed in 2020, Georgiev’s contract might be the most comparable for a few reasons. First off, the contract was signed by Georgiev after filing for salary arbitration earlier that summer, just like Gustavsson. In addition, both had similar NHL games played prior to the contract, Georgiev with 77 and Gustavvson with 66. Gustavsson’s numbers are better, but there was a big difference in the quality of the team in front of him. Georgiev played on a Rangers team that finished with just 79 points. That’s a pretty big gap from a Wild team that finished with 103 this past season. Guerin has to have his fingers crossed that Gustavsson’s deal lands near this range.
Obviously, there is no exact comparison for Gustavsson’s next contract. Oettinger has a higher ceiling, Nedeljkovic had less experience, and Georgiev didn’t have the same caliber team in front of him. Complicating matters are the flat NHL salary cap, Minnesota’s cap situation, and star prospect Jesper Wallstedt in the pipeline. The Wild need the stability Gustavsson can offer, but also need him at the right price.
Contract Projection: 2 years x $2.85 million
Stay tuned for more NHL content, including trades, signings, and various updates.
Featured image courtesy Minnesota Wild PR via Twitter
Contract information via CapFriendly, Statistics from Hockey Reference and MoneyPuck
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