It is the first time P.K. Subban was at this point. After seven missed opportunities and two misses in the conference finals, he heads to the Stanley Cup Final. But even when Subban’s Nashville Predators dispatched the Anaheim Ducks 6-3 on Monday night, he knew exactly what to do at the postgame ceremony.
Don’t touch the Campbell Bowl.
That’s the superstition for a conference finals winner. There’s no celebration for reaching the end when there’s a better trophy to hoist. Nonetheless, Subban has his first shot at holding up the ultimate trophy: Lord Stanley’s Cup.
As Subban climbs the ladder to the hockey pinnacle, how is his progress towards becoming an NHL great? Is he on the path to the Hall of Fame, and will a Stanley Cup put him in the discussion?
The Pros for P.K. Subban
It’s easy to analyze Subban’s body of work from a statistical standpoint to start. He’s a four-time All-Star who won the Norris Trophy back in 2013. Multiple aspects of a defenseman’s game judge Norris winners, one of them being scoring.
Subban brings that to the table. Since his first full season in the NHL back in 2010, Subban’s 316 points are the sixth-most for a defenseman in that span. He’s also done well on the power play with 143 total points in his career.
Other statistics also jump out on his resumé. His 576 penalty minutes are third-most amongst his blue line colleagues in the last seven seasons. The advanced metrics across are also favorable. In his career, his Corsi and Fenwick ratings are 52.5 and 52.4 percent, respectively, meaning his team controls the puck more when he’s on the ice.
Entering this season, his offensive zone starts and finishes were virtually even around 53 percent. Therefore, his teams did not cede possession while in the offensive zone much during his ice time. In short, he does well in moving and keeping the puck for his team.
This may not be as important to his case as his play, but it still holds value: he’s a talented and well-liked person. He’s come in to a new atmosphere and brought excitement to the Predators franchise. He’s embraced his new home with acts of community service and is a solid presence in the locker room.
It won’t stand for much when it comes down to voting, but it spotlights his character and his play instead of detracting from it.
The Cons for P.K. Subban
Subban has done well in his time in the NHL, but anointing him into the Hall of Fame may be premature. For starters, he’s only 27 years old. There is still plenty that could happen in the rest of his career, be it injuries or decline in play. Other factors include varying statistics in other categories and the competition playing around him.
Hits, blocks and takeaways have been measured for a defenseman’s effectiveness for a while, even though the categories do not tell the entire story. Even so, they have merit as to the type of player one is.
Subban’s marks in these categories have ranged from inconsistent to uninspiring. In the 2014-15 campaign, Subban had 142 blocked shots. Yet in the season after, he finished with just 80.
His 135 hits in 2013-14 are a career-high, but he ended with just 78 in Nashville this year.
He had 183 takeaways in his career, but that hardly stands up against other defensemen. All of these statistics are mutually exclusive, and the defensive system can alter them as well. The question is if the variance will hurt his chances.
Not only do some stats falter in comparison, but other players excel at his strengths, too. Subban has only reached the top 3 in Norris voting twice out of seven seasons. In that span, other players such as Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns have more points and ice time.
Karlsson is an excellent skater while Burns has a fearsome shot. With players that do better in similar areas, Subban’s place amongst the premier defensemen is not as clear.
How does P.K. Subban get there?
P.K. Subban is a talented player. Overall, he had a fine season for Nashville and is now leading them into the Stanley Cup Final. Great players always have more incentive to get into the Hall of Fame with a title.
If Subban takes the Music City to the top, it’ll boost his chances. Karlsson and Burns have yet to win the Cup.
As for his play on the ice, his value comes from his puck handling and his ability to score. Looking at the recent defensemen inducted into the Hall of Fame, Subban has work to do. Scott Niedermayer, elected in 2013, had 838 total points in 18 seasons. Subban has 358 in eight years, and he averages more points per game than Niedermayer.
At the same time, he doesn’t produce as much as Nicklas Lidstrom did in his career. Other players like Chris Pronger excelled in other areas such as PIM. Chris Chelios played 28 seasons and his incomparable to most defensemen.
As it stands, Subban would probably need around seven to nine more seasons of high-quality performances. Regression is expected at some point, but Subban has the potential. Hoisting the cup with Nashville is just one step, but it goes a long way.
Stats via Hockey Reference, Puckalytics and Behind the Net. Feature image courtesy of SportsNet.ca
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