Setting Realistic Expectations for Justin Fields in 2023

Ever since the Bears drafted Justin Fields, fans have treated him as the franchise’s savior. Bears’ fans consider Fields the savior since he is the most talented quarterback they have had in the past 40 years. Even though Fields has the talent, developing productivity in the NFL takes time. That is why setting realistic expectations for Justin Fields in the 2023 season is important.

Taking a look at Fields’ first two seasons in the league can help set expectations for his performance in 2023. His yardage improvements are a good baseline to predict the jump he can take this year.

As a rookie, Fields threw for 1,870 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 12 games. That is one rough rookie season in the air. Fields did bounce back last season with 2,242 yards and 17 touchdowns. However, he did throw an additional interception last season with 11. Fields played three more games in 2022, finishing the year with 15 starts. In his two seasons, Fields is yet to play all 17 games in a season.

Fields passing yards increased by 372 from his rookie year to his second season, showing some growth. However, he did throw one more interception, potentially due to the lackluster receiving core the Bears had last season. Fields should not have the same issues this season with an improved receiving core.

Fields’ progression from year one to two would suggest he would finish this season with 2.614 passing yards. However, player progression is more complex. With his plethora of weapons this season, Fields should have at minimum 2.800 passing yards. Reaching 3,000 passing yards should be the goal for Fields, as that is a major milestone.

Fields increased his touchdowns total by ten from his rookie year to his second year. This season Fields will throw for a minimum of 25 touchdowns. That is at least an eight touchdown increase from last season, but it will most likely be more than that.

While Fields should easily hit these milestones throwing more can bring up turnover concerns. These concerns are valid because Fields has had 21 interceptions in his first two seasons. Even so, the Bears have more reliable targets this season, so Fields should be able to reduce interceptions. Five or fewer interceptions should be the goal for Fields this season.

Passing is not the only way Feilds can attack a team, as he can also run the ball. In his rookie season Fields rushed for 420 yards and two touchdowns on 72 carries while only fumbling twice.

In Fields’ second season, he had 1,143 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 160 carries. This stat line made Fields the best rushing quarterback in the 2022 NFL season. Although he had the most rushing yards, Fields also led the league in quarterback fumbles. Nine of the fumbles occurred on rush attempts showing he needs to have better ball protection.

Seeing Fields explode in the running game last season leads to an interesting conundrum this season. How do you use Fields to the best of his running ability while ensuring the receivers have good production?

This conundrum is why Fields may have fewer rush yards this season than he did last season. Knowing how explosive Fields is in the running game, he will minimally have 800 rushing yards. He most likely will not surpass his rushing total from last year due to the improvements the Bears have made on offense. Despite that, he will still be productive on the ground.

If Fields produces these numbers this season, his future with the Bears is bright. It will also excite Bears fans even more for the future. It will be interesting to see if Fields can meet these expectations this season.

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