Over the last couple of months, it appears that the New England Patriots may be ready to move off their 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry. The Patriots drafted Harry to eventually become the team’s number one receiver but ultimately replace future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski as the team’s large target over the middle of the field and the red zone. In his first two seasons in the league, Harry has been a disappointment.
In his first season, Harry was placed on injured reserve and missed the first nine games because of an ankle injury suffered in the preseason. He started five of the seven games he played that season catching 12 of his 24 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns. The following season Harry started 9 of the 14 games he played last year. He was still a nonfactor for New England’s offense catching 33 of his 57 targets for 309 yards and two touchdowns. In 2020-21 Harry was fifth in the team in receiving and had the fourth-most receiving yards on his team among wide receivers. Most notably Harry had a less productive season than former Super Bowl MVP Julian Edleman who only played in six games last season.
This offseason New England splurged in the offseason breaking the record for most guaranteed money handed out in free-agent contracts during the offseason spending $159.6 million. A majority of the Patriots signings were pass-catchers including Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne. Since all four of those players are expected to start and Jakobi Meyers will take over for Julian Edleman in the slot, it doesn’t leave many targets for N’Keal Harry. On top of that New England is predominantly a run-first offense so the target share will likely be less than the league average all around.
So there isn’t much of a role for Harry on the Patriots given how they are currently constructed. Going into the third year of his rookie deal Harry has a $2.754 million cap hit and a $4.095 million deal cap hit if he were to be traded or released.
ESPN’s NFL Nation reporter for the New England Patriots Mike Reiss believes that “Harry is in danger of not making the 53-man roster“. Shortly after that report came out NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo tweeted out a statement made by Harry’s agent Jamal Tooson basically saying that both the Patriots and Harry may be better off if they parted ways and that he is requesting they trade Harry before training camp.
Statement from #Patriots WR N’Keal Harry’s agent Jamal Tooson, who has formally requested a trade for the 2019 first-round pick. pic.twitter.com/3xdJbbar28
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) July 6, 2021
It will be interesting to see if the Patriots decide to trade or release Harry in the coming weeks. His value right now is likely a Day 3 pick. Despite not playing well early on in his career, teams may be interested in Harry’s services. Coming out of Arizona State Harry seemed like the total package. He had the size, speed, and ability to make spectacular plays to be a star receiver at the next level. A team that had a high grade on Harry coming out of the 2019 class may want to kick the tires on him.
It is also Harry’s benefit that he did play in an extremely complicated offense in New England. Multiple veteran wide receivers including Mohammed Sanu have commented in recent years that Josh McDaniel’s offense is very difficult to learn and thrive in right away. Some teams may believe a receiver as talented as Harry may do a lot better in a simpler offensive scheme.
Here are the teams who could trade for N’Keal Harry before training camp.
Detriot Lions
Compensation: 2022 Fifth Round Pick & 2022 Seventh Round Pick (via New England Patriots)
There is no team in the NFL with a bigger need at the wide receiver position than the Detriot Lions. During the offseason, they let starting their three starting wide receivers former Pro Bowler Kenny Golladay. Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola go in free agency. Back in 2019-20 when all three played more than half of the team’s regular-season games they had a combined 189 receptions off of 304 targets for 2,647 yards and 21 touchdowns. Those three combined for 54.9% of the team’s receptions, 55.3% of the team’s targets, 63.2% of the team’s receiving yards, and 75% of the teams receiving touchdowns during the 2019-20 season.
Detriot replaced the receivers who left with veteran receivers Tyrell Williams and former first-round pick Breshad Perriman. They already have young receiver, Quintez Cephus, on the roster and added Amon-Ra St.Brown in the fourth round of the draft. Williams, Perriman, and Cephus have not shown the ability to be a team’s number one receiver throughout their careers.
Williams sat out last season after tearing his labrum in his shoulder. He has only had one 1,000+ receiving yards once in his career in 2016-17 with the San Diego Chargers. Since then he hasn’t reached 750+ receiving yards in a single season. Perriman has been going through a career rejuvenation the last two seasons after almost being written off early in his career during his time in Baltimore and Cleveland. Perriman reemerged as a dangerous deep threat in Tampa Bay who stepped up when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin got hurt. Last year in New York Perriman was a solid complementary receiver for an underachieving offense. He’s only topped 600+ receiving yards once in his career. In 13 games last season Quentez Cephus had a solid rookie season. He had 20 receptions off of 35 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Cephus started two games for the Lions last season.
The Lions are in the middle of a rebuild so they are trying to hoard as much draft capital as possible to set the framework for this team going forward. However, it would make sense for the Lions to take a chance and trade some draft capital on a former first-round pick in Harry who has the potential to be a starting receiver for them for at least the next two to three seasons. Detriot has two fifth-round picks because of the compensatory pick they will receive next offseason so they can package one of them with New Englands’ seventh-round pick that they own and trade for Harry. Odds are that Harry could have a larger impact for the Lions going forward than the players they take with those selections.
Atlanta Falcons
Compensation: Conditional 2022 Sixth Round Pick
After making a blockbuster deal where they traded away former All-Pro receiver Julio Jones, the Atlanta Falcons have a need for a receiver opposite 2020 Second-team All-Pro selection Calvin Ridley. The Falcons did draft tight end Kyle Pitts with the fourth overall pick to pair with former first-round pick Hayden Hurst. However, Atlanta needs a true wide receiver to play opposite Ridley.
Behind Ridley on the Falcons depth chart are Russell Gage, Christian Blake, and Olamide Zaccheaus. The only one of the three receivers who have had a featured role in Atlanta’s offense is Gage. Discretely Gage was second on the team in targets, receptions receiving yards, touchdowns only behind Calvin Ridley, and notably ahead of Julio Jones who played in only nine games last season. Gage had 72 receptions of 109 targets for 786 yards and four touchdowns. Zaccheaus started two games last season, but only had 20 receptions off of 32 targets for 274 yards and a touchdown. Blake had 13 receptions off of 18 targets for 141 yards last year. Atlanta also added two interesting rookie wide receivers this past spring who could be major deep threats at the next level.
They drafted Arizona State wide receiver Frank Darby in the sixth round and signed Buffalo wide receiver Antonio Nunn as an undrafted free agent. Both Darby and Nunn were considered prospects who could be taken in the fourth or fifth round by multiple draft experts. If both make the roster they could help fill the void left by Jones on this offense.
Atlanta has enough options on the roster to try to fill the void left by Jones. But the best option for Atlanta may be N’Keal Harry. The former first-round pick is a big body receiver with spectacular ball skills. He may not be nearly talented as Jones but could be asked to run some of the same routes Arthur Smith had imagined for him when he signed with the Falcons.
New head coach Arthur Smith has experience with former first-round pick wide receivers who have struggled early in their career. His work with Corey Smith last season helped Davis remove the bonafide bust label and earned him a 3 year $37.5 million deal with the New York Jets after a career year. An offensive mind like Arthur Smith may embrace the challenge of trying to put Harry in the right position to succeed.
Atlanta should give away a conditional sixth-round pick for Harry. The deal should be if Harry starts all 16 regular season games or plays more than half and has more than 700 yards receiving that sixth-round pick turns into a fifth-round pick.
New Orleans Saints
Compensation: Compensatory 4th Round Pick
Despite how loaded the New Orleans Saints are as a team, they have not made great investments at the wide receiver position. Outside of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, it is hard to say who is New Orlean’s next best option as a pass-catcher. For a team whose success is predicated on offensive success and once again will be trying to contend this is alarming. This is also alarming because the Saints have an extremely uncomfortable quarterback situation and besides having an All-Pro caliber receiver and running back have a lot of other reliable pass catchers to make their quarterback more comfortable.
New Orleans lost two of their best pass-catchers last offseason in Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook. The two combined for 98 receptions on 142 targets for 1,230 yards and 12 touchdowns. They accounted for 26.5% of the team’s receptions, 28% of the team’s targets, 31.2% of the team’s receiving yards, and 42.9% of the team’s receiving touchdowns.
After Thomas on the depth chart, New Orleans has TreQuan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Jawan Johnson on the depth chart. Out of those listed receivers, Smith is the favorite to be the team’s secondary receiver while Callaway and Harris will compete for the number three receiver targets. Smith has primarily been the team’s number two wide receiver for three seasons now and hasn’t reached more than 450 receiving yards in a season up to this point. None of the receivers on the Saints receivers on the roster besides Thomas and Smith have topped 300 receiving yards in a season.
The Saints are projected to have two third-round picks and two fourth-round picks next season. So they can afford to move one of those selections for a veteran who can help them out this season. Moving a fourth-round pick for a receiver like Harry could be a bargain if he ends up starting for the Saints. The duo of Michael Thomas and N’Keal Harry would give projected starter Jameis Winston two big-bodied targets similar to what he had in his best season in Tampa Bay during the 2019-20 season with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It is unlikely that Harry puts up the production that either Evans or Godwin had that season, but the past has shown us that Winston performs better throwing to big-bodied receivers with larger catch radiuses due to his inaccuracy issues.
Also, Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis are no stranger to trading for former first-round picks that fill a need and have not played well for the team that drafted them. At the 2018-19 trade deadline they traded a fourth-round pick for former first-round pick Eli Apple and a 2020 seventh-round pick. Payton is widely regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the league. If he cannot get production out of Harry then it is fair to call him a bust. However, if he could add Harry to their scheme and unleash the skills that made him such a highly regarded prospect, then the Saints would be getting a first-round talent at the expense of a Day Three selection.
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