The NFL season is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are NFL week 4 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last week: 6-8-2
Season: 18-28-2
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Steelers got the offense going against the Bengals. Cleveland will provide more of a challenge defensively, but the defense should be able to limit the Browns’ offense enough to win and cover.
Pick: Steelers
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Washington Commanders (Game in London, England)
Marcus Mariota played well in his first start this season for the Commanders. Backup quarterbacks usually struggle the longer they have to play, so maybe the Colts can take advantage. Jonathan Taylor can pick up yardage and open things up offensively.
Pick: Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2)
Cincinnati let a game get away from them because of special teams and some missed tackles. They should be able to clean it up and to cover at home. The Jaguars have the offense flowing, but may not be able to win a shootout in Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Green Bay’s offensive line is a mess and they have struggled to run the ball. If the Bucs were fully healthy, they could win and cover, but they have rookie Jalon Daniels starting at quarterback for the injured Baker Mayfield. Even though the Packers are playing poorly, this is an opportunity to get a win.
Pick: Packers
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Case Keenum did a great job operating the Ben Johnson offense in his start against the Eagles. If he can keep the offense moving, they should be able to outscore the Jets, who have improved a bit this season.
Pick: Bears
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia’s offense could not get anything going against the Bears and there are some issues they need to figure out. Unfortunately for them, they match up with the Rams who are desperate for a win. The Rams should win and cover if they play decently.
Pick: Rams
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5)
The Cowboys lost a heartbreaker to the Ravens in Brazil. They are still on the road this week, but should be able to defeat the Texans, who have a good defense but have not played up to their standard yet this season.
Pick: Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants
Neither of these teams are in the greatest situation right now, but in a coin flip game, the Giants can win at home.
Pick: Giants
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7)
Buffalo has put up points this year, but they have also allowed them. Drake Maye and the Patriots have struggled out of the gate, but the Bills could allow them to keep it close.
Pick: Patriots
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
The Ravens should win the game, but they have a long flight home from Brazil and this is a large spread to cover. Cam Ward should do enough to keep it within the spread.
Pick: Titans
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
The Dolphins are 0-3 against the spread this season and have now lost their best player, De’Von Achane, to injury. Minnesota’s defense should be able to limit the Dolphins and help the team cover.
Pick: Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas has started off the season hot, but the Chiefs might be too good to keep up with. Their defense has played solidly, but adding Kenneth Walker III to run the ball has really opened up the offense.
Pick: Chiefs
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Bo Nix has played well in spurts, but hasn’t been consistent. San Francisco will take advantage of that. Brock Purdy is playing well and the 49ers are healthy enough to win and cover.
Pick: 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Seattle should win this game, as the Chargers are struggling to start the season. The Seahawks return home after a road loss to a backup quarterback, so the Chargers could keep it close.
Pick: Chargers
Detroit Lions (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Detroit’s offense is still great, even if the defense has some issues. The Panthers will likely not be able to keep up, so Detroit will cover.
Pick: Lions
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
The Saints struggle to get things going in the first half, but are playing well in second halves of games. They should be locked in against a rival at home to play for a full 60 minutes.
Pick: Saints
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