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NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread

NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread

Publish Date: December 23, 2025

The NFL season is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are NFL week 17 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)

Last Week: 10-6

Season: 118-120-2

Christmas Day Games

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

Washington has quarterback injury issues, which will make it hard to keep up with the Cowboys and their good offense.

Pick: Cowboys

Detroit Lions (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Lions are desperate for a win to make the playoffs. Minnesota also has quarterback injury issues, which should make it easier for them to cover on the road.

Pick: Lions

Denver Broncos (-12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City looked lost without Patrick Mahomes against the Titans and now Gardner Minshew is hurt too. The Broncos’ defense should limit the Chiefs and help them win by two touchdowns.

Pick: Broncos

Saturday Games

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers have won seven of the last eight, while the Texans have won seven straight. Houston’s defense will travely and can help them, especially with the Chargers having injury issues on the offensive line.

Pick: Texans

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Green Bay has some notable injuries, but Lamar Jackson keeps getting dinged up for the Ravens. The Packers are at home and can cover against the Ravens with an injured Jackson or without him.

Pick: Packers

Sunday Afternoon

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Cincinnati got a win over a quarterback in his first start during week 16. The defense is still an issue, so Joe Burrow may lead them to a win, but picking them to win a game by more than a touchdown against a veteran quarterback is too much.

Pick: Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Steelers are coming off a big win and just need one more (or a Ravens loss) to qualify for the playoffs. Cleveland’s defense can keep them in it, but Pittsburgh has more balance, which can help them cover.

Pick: Steelers

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

New Orleans has been a much better team with Tyler Shough at quarterback. Had they started him all year, they could have made the playoffs. The Titans beat a Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes, but still aren’t playing the cleanest football.

Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville is on fire after beating the Broncos on the road. They have a good defense and Trevor Lawrence is operating the offense so well. Indianapolis just doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field vertically to keep up.

Pick: Jaguars

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Buccaneers are still alive to make the playoffs despite losing to the Panthers. They need to win this game and the Dolphins are just experimenting with Quinn Ewers at quarterback.

Pick: Buccaneers

New England Patriots (-12.5) at New York Jets

New England took a loss to Buffalo two weeks ago, then rebounded to beat the Ravens on the road. They should be able to keep things rolling against the Jets, who have injuries in the secondary.

Pick: Patriots

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks have to travel across the country for this game. They should be able to win, but the Panthers can keep it close. Carolina plays better when they aren’t favored to win games and the defense has been solid.

Pick: Panthers

Sunday Evening

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

These teams are fighting for the no. 1 pick. The Giants have more talent on both sides of the ball and should be able to win on the road if they are trying to.

Pick: Giants

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

Philadelphia qualified for the playoffs, but are not playing their best football. Josh Allen should be able to get the Bills to win and cover at home.

Pick: Bills

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Both of these teams have a path to a no. 1 seed. San Francisco, being at home, has the edge, especially after showing some offensive firepower against the Colts on Monday Night Football.

Pick: 49ers

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Rams lost a close one on the road to Seattle on Thursday Night Football, so they had extra time to prepare for this game. There is still a path to winning the NFC West and the no. 1 seed, so they will be locked into to win and cover.

Pick: Rams

 

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