The NFL season is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are NFL week 11 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 73-76
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-11.5)
The Patriots have really improved this season and the Jets could struggle to keep this one close without a viable passing attack. This is a big spread, especially for a Thursday, but Drake Maye should be able to help the Pats cover.
Pick: Patriots
Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) (Game in Madrid)
Miami is coming off a win over Buffalo, where De’Von Achane ran wild. The Dolphins should be able to get similar offensive production against a struggling Commanders team.
This week: Dolphins
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Both of these teams have been fairly inconsistent this season. The Falcons at least have the offense playing well and will want to avenge their blowout loss to the Panthers earlier this season.
Pick: Falcons
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Chicago’s offense has been explosive this season, while their defense has struggled. They should be able to patch things together as J.J. McCarthy is still learning the position.
Pick: Bears
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
These two teams played an instant classic a few weeks ago that was decided by two points. The Steelers may end up winning this one, but the Bengals’ offense can keep it close, especially after their bye week.
Pick: Bengals
Green Bay Packers (-8) at New York Giants
The Packers play up and down to their competition this year, which makes them hard to trust. They are 3-6 against the spread this season. The Giants may have just fired Brian Daboll, but they will likely get a small boost out of it.
Pick: Giants
Houston Texans (-7) at Tennessee Titans
After a rough start to the season, the Texans have won four of their last six games as they look to make a push towards the playoffs. Their defense will cause fits for rookie quarterback Cam Ward and help them cover.
Pick: Texans
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars blew a lead to the Texans last week and are dealing with injuries to the wide receiver position. While the Chargers have some offensive line injuries, they have won their last three games and should be able to keep that streak alive.
Pick: Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Buffalo defeated the Chiefs then had a letdown against the Dolphins. They will likely be more focused now and should be able to win and cover against the Bucs at home, who are still dealing with plenty of injuries.
Pick: Bills
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers have been trying to hang on this season with all of their injuries. Since starting 3-0, they have a 3-4 record. Arizona’s offense has looked better with Jacoby Brissett under center and the Cardinals have lost just one game by more than four points this year. They should keep it close at home and may even pull off the win.
Pick: Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
These two teams are some of the best in the league. While Sam Darnold has had success pushing the ball downfield, the Rams are capable of beating teams in so many different ways. That should help them win and cover at home.
Pick: Rams
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens have things back on track after getting Lamar Jackson back and Kyle Hamilton moving back to the slot has vastly improved their defense. Cleveland has a good defense, but likely won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have six straight wins, but only one has a winning record. Bo Nix is not playing great at quarterback, which will make it hard to beat the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is finding his groove as the season goes on and the Chiefs should be able to win and cover on the road.
Pick: Chiefs
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
Philadelphia is on a short week after winning a game against the Packers in which they didn’t play that well. Detroit dominated the Commanders and are 6-3 against the spread this season.
Pick: Lions
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Dallas is coming off of a bye and has defensive reinforcements in Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams. A little improvement on defense can go a long way. The Cowboys’ offense should be able to score a lot in this game and the Raiders haven’t scored consistently this year.
Pick: Cowboys
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