NFL Week 11 is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are the NFL week 11 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last week: 8-6, Season: 70-76-5
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Packers played their best game of the season against the Cowboys, but the injuries are piling up. Tennessee is a nightmare to play on a short week, because teams have to be ready to stop Derrick Henry on short rest. The Titans can keep this game close, if not win it. They are 7-2 against the spread this season.
Pick: Titans
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3)
While the Lions got back in the win column last week, they have a second-straight road game. New York should be able to defend their home turf and cover over a team that hasn’t played well this season.
Pick: Giants
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)
These teams met just a few weeks ago and the Patriots won by five. Since that point, the Jets have defeated the Bills and are coming off a bye. Their confidence is soaring and they can keep this game close.
Pick: Jets
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Matthew Stafford missed last week and now Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ lone offensive weapon this season, is out for at least a few weeks. The Saints have quarterback issues too, but they are at home and should take advantage of the Rams while they have to figure things out.
Pick: Saints
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Philadelphia Eagles just lost their first game of the season on Monday Night Football. They will likely rebound and win their next game, but it will be tough on a short week. The Colts seemed to have some new life injected into them when Jeff Saturday was named the interim coach. They’ll feed Jonathan Taylor and cover.
Pick: Colts
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-9)
The Bills are going through a tough stretch. They should be able to bounce back against the Browns, as they can focus on stopping the run to shut them down. Josh Allen will likely start getting more comfortable dealing with his UCL injury to help the Bills cover.
Pick: Bills
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Since the Bears have started tailoring their offense to the strengths of Justin Fields, they have been playing well. Even after a loss to the Lions, they can go on the road and beat the Falcons, who have trouble throwing the ball.
Pick: Bears
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
This line is pretty aggressive, but the Panthers have quarterback issues. The Ravens are also coming off of a bye and are getting healthier as the season goes on. Baltimore can win and cover.
Pick: Ravens
Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans
The Commanders are coming off a big win on Monday Night Football and have a short week. They are still much more talented than the Texans and are playing good football right now. Washington can win and cover on the road.
Pick: Commanders
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
This is not a game that many will be watching. Both teams have struggled a ton this season. Getting any points is worth something in this game, so the pick is the Raiders.
Pick: Raiders
Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota just went on the road and beat the Bills, giving them more recognition for their incredible start to the season. This game should be close, but it’s a little weird to give the Cowboys the edge. Take the Vikings with the point.
Pick: Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals will likely win this game against the Steelers, but it will be close. Cincinnati has not been able to deal with an elite pass-rusher all season, and T.J. Watt is suiting up for this game. It is also a rivalry game, so a blowout is unlikely.
Pick: Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles is getting healthier at the wide receiver position, which should help them in this game. They also need a sense of urgency to make the playoffs, as losing this game would drop them to .500. Kansas City may go on the road and win, but it should be close.
Pick: Chargers
San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Arizona Cardinals (Game in Mexico City)
The 49ers are a good team, but being favored by eight points at a neutral site is a little much. Arizona looked solid even with Colt McCoy at quarterback and should play the 49ers close.
Pick: Cardinals
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