The NFL season is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are NFL week 1 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last season: 140-143-2
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
The Seahawks won this matchup in the Super Bowl and didn’t lose a lot from their roster. Their defense can still create problems for the Patriots, even if they did make some offensive improvements.
Pick: Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) (Game in Melbourne, Australia)
The season hasn’t even started yet and the 49ers are dealing with injuries. With Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett getting after the quarterback, it will be hard for the 49ers to move the ball and Matthew Stafford will take care of the rest.
Pick: Rams
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Atlanta has a new man in charge in Kevin Stefanski, who has more talent to work with than he did in Cleveland. The defense is a work in progress, but they are also going up against a Steelers’ team that can struggle to move the ball at times. Pittsburgh may win, but the Falcons can keep it close.
Pick: Falcons
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
These two teams picked early in the 2026 NFL Draft and may still not have the talent to really make a push up the standings. The Titans have Cam Ward back at quarterback and if he can take a step forward, that helps. So too does the Titans having this game at home.
Pick: Titans
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Detroit should win this game, but still have some question marks after losing some key players this offseason and missing the playoffs last season. New Orleans made significant progress last season with Tyler Shough at quarterback and Kellen Moore has coached him well. They should keep it close.
Pick: Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
The Bengals made a concerted effort to improve the defense this offseason. That should make them a playoff team, but there are still issues. The Bengals give up some sacks, but the Bucs don’t have an edge rusher to exploit it.
Pick: Bengals
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
John Harbaugh is gone and the Ravens have a new regime. It could have more upside in the future, but it is hard to cover on the road in this league. The Colts poured a lot of resources into this team and Daniel Jones is back healthy, so they can keep it within a field goal.
Pick: Colts
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Houston Texans
The Bills have a new regime and have to fix their defense, but that might take a while with an offensive-minded head coach. Houston’s defense can slow down Josh Allen and the offense can do enough to protect their home turf and win the game.
Pick: Texans
Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Ben Johnson had a good first season with the Bears and can keep the momentum going. Carolina added to their defense, but the offense may not have enough firepower to keep up with the Bears.
Pick: Bears
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
The Browns had some encouraging rookies last year, but the quarterback position is still a mess and they have a new head coach. Jacksonville had a solid season with Liam Coen at the helm and should be able to put up too many points for Cleveland to stay in range.
Pick: Jaguars
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Miami shed a lot of talent from their roster, while Las Vegas added to theirs. The Raiders will have to slow down De’Von Achane, but they should be able to do so enough so that they can cover.
Pick: Raiders
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Washington tried to improve their defense, but it may not be enough to truly compete. The Eagles should have a great defense and offensive changes; even with the loss of AJ Brown, they could have better results.
Pick: Eagles
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
Micah Parsons won’t be healthy for this game, which could leave the Packers vulnerable, but Minnesota may not have the offense to make them pay for it. The Packers offense should be able to improve this season, which can help them win on the road.
Pick: Packers
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
Los Angeles has a new offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel, so more points should be coming. The defense can limit a Cardinals team starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and the team can cover the spread.
Pick: Chargers
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants
The Giants have a good pass rush and now have John Harbaugh running things, but the Cowboys have the potential top offense in football. They have also made plenty of defensive improvements this offseason. A win on the road is probable for them.
Pick: Cowboys
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Kansas City is a tough place to play, especially if they are able to run the ball with newly acquired Kenneth Walker III. Denver’s defense can make it low-scoring, but the Chiefs can win by at least a field goal.
Pick: Chiefs
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