The NFL season is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are NFL week 1 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last season: 156-122-4
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
The Cowboys are going through a mess right now after trading Micah Parsons. Their secondary also has their issues. Dallas has a great offense, but Philadelphia is great on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Game in Brazil)
The Chargers can pose some problems, but the Chiefs are the more complete team. They still have a good defense and Patrick Mahomes should be able to take advantage of the Chargers’ defense. If the Chargers get down early, they could struggle to catch up.
Pick: Chiefs
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals defense improved last season and it should improve again. That could be problematic for the Saints, who plan to start Spencer Rattler at quarterback this season.
Pick: Cardinals
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Liam Coen was hired as head coach, which should allow Trevor Lawrence to improve. Carolina’s defense was bad last season and even if they improve, it will be a tall task in week 1.
Pick: Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Cleveland Browns
The Bengals always struggle early in the season, but this year, they got their starters reps in the preseason. Their defense still has some massive holes, but the offense should be able to outscore anyone, especially the Browns, who are rolling with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
Pick: Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)
The Raiders should be much improved with Geno Smith coming in at quarterback and Ashton Jeanty at running back. Their defense has some vulnerability and the Patriots should have more balance on the team to defend their home turf.
Pick: Patriots
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Miami made some interesting moves this offseason, but their offense is still extremely efficient when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. Their defense should be able to slow down Daniel Jones.
Pick: Dolphins
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-5.5)
The Commanders improved their offense from last season and they will have to be at their best against a good pass rush this week. If they can handle the pass rush, the Giants could struggle to keep up with Russell Wilson leading the way at quarterback.
Pick Commanders
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at New York Jets
Pittsburgh has a great defense and now Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. There aren’t many proven pass-catchers outside of DK Metcalf, so it could be hard for them to move the ball. The Jets will try to keep the ball on the ground and their defense can have success.
Pick: Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) at Atlanta Falcons
Todd Bowles will have the defense ready to play and could make things tough for a young quarterback in Michael Penix. The Tampa Bay offense still has enough fire-power to be effective.
Pick: Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers (-2) at Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers had an injury-plagued season in 2024 and are looking to rebound. Their receivers are banged up, but they should run the ball well. Seattle’s defense is great, but Sam Darnold could struggle at quarterback since he is playing in a new system.
Pick: 49ers
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Denver had a great defense last season and added to it, which should create another good season. Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has his work cut out for him against such a good defense.
Pick: Broncos
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Detroit lost both their coordinators, but are motivated to prove it won’t matter. While Green Bay improved by acquiring Micah Parsons, he likely won’t be 100 percent in week 1, giving Detroit a chance to take a win on the road.
Pick: Lions
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Matthew Stafford is set to start the season after dealing with a back injury. The Rams have a lot of potential when he is healthy, especially after adding Davante Adams. Houston should keep it close, but the Rams should win and cover at home.
Pick: Rams
Baltimore Ravens (-0.5) at Buffalo Bills
These teams are both primed to make Super Bowl runs this season. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are stars and are due to go further in the playoffs. With the Bills getting this game at home, they are the pick.
Pick: Bills
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
J.J. McCarthy will be making his first NFL start for the Vikings and he will be without Jordan Addison. Chicago’s defense is tough and the offense should take a step forward with Ben Johnson at the helm.
Pick: Bears
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