NFL Week 1 is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are the NFL week 1 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last Season: 151-126-8
Thursday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
A rematch of the AFC Championship Game is on hand for the season opener. The Ravens will want revenge, but going on the road will be tough. Patrick Mahomes has some new exciting targets to use and the Chiefs should still be solid on defense.
Pick: Chiefs
Friday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) (Game in Brazil)
Green Bay really showed improvement down the stretch last season, while Philadelphia faded. The Eagles lost some key pieces, like Jason Kelce, while the Packers added some in Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs. They should be able to win outright at a neutral site.
Pick: Packers
Sunday Afternoon
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)
The Saints played decently last season, while the Panthers really struggled. That will likely continue into this season, so the Saints should win by more than four.
Pick Saints
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Chicago is much improved and should win this game, but it could be as close as a field goal. Tennessee has an improved offensive line and the Bears struggled to get after the quarterback last season. The Titans should be able to make it close.
Pick: Titans
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Houston took a huge step forward last season and added to that in the offense on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis will have to hope Anthony Richardson learned from the sidelines last season after getting injured early in the year. The Texans’ talent should win out.
Pick: Texans
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6)
Buffalo lost a lot from last year’s team and have had some key injuries already. Stefon Diggs is now a Texan, while their secondary will be mostly new faces. On top of that Matt Milano went down with an injury already. The Bills should still beat the Cardinals, but it could be within a touchdown.
Pick: Cardinals
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Ja’Marr Chase is still not practicing, but the Bengals have a lot of talent. The Patriots are rebuilding and will be without several key defensive players from the last few years in Christian Barmore and Matthew Judon.
Pick: Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3)
The Jaguars may improve this season, but it will be hard to keep up with Miami’s fire power. Mike McDaniel has had a lot of time to get ready for this game and will likely put up a lot of points.
Pick: Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings (-1) at New York Giants
Brian Flores has done well coaching the defense for the Vikings, so Sam Darnold just has to be functional to get some wins this season. Daniel Jones was retained by the Giants, but he has struggled.
Pick: Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Atlanta should be able to win their home-opener after making several key offseason additions, including Kirk Cousins and Matthew Judon. It will likely be really close, as the Steelers have a good defense. If Russell Wilson protects the football, the game can go down to the wire.
Pick: Steelers
Sunday Evening
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Bo Nix was named the starter for the Broncos. The Seahawks have a talented secondary that can force turnovers to help them win and cover.
Pick: Seahawks
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Justin Herbert is expected to play in this game for the chargers. The defense should be improved, while the offense will have more of a running focus. Las Vegas may not have the defense to stop the rushing attack of the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
While contract disputes ruled the offseason for the Cowboys, they still have a talented team. Their offensive line should be able to handle the Cleveland pass rush, while their own defense can create a lot of problems for Deshaun Watson. It will be a close game, but Dallas can win outright on the road.
Pick: Cowboys
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Washington has a longer rebuild in front of them. Jayden Daniels has some promise as a rookie quarterback, but this is his first career start. He may not be able to take advantage of some weaknesses in the secondary for the Bucs, while Baker Mayfield should be able to put up points.
Pick: Buccaneers
Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
The Rams lost Aaron Donald to retirement. He will be tough to replace. Detroit has a great offensive line and their defense got some key additions in the secondary this offseason.
Pick: Lions
Monday Night Football
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Aaron Rodgers is returning to play quarterback, but he will likely be rusty after not lasting past the first drive last season. San Francisco’s defense can make things tough, while their offense still has all the key pieces back after Brandon Aiyuk agreed to a deal.
Pick: 49ers
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