Hall of Fame cornerback Ronde Barber recently named Kenny Pickett a dark horse candidate to win the MVP in 2023. Barber, now a part of the 33rd Team, stated, “Kenny Pickett showed that he has some serious game down the stretch in 2022 and that he is suited for the NFL.” He also went on to say that Pickett is in a good situation with two good receivers. And lastly, that if Pickett plays well, he will lead the team to the playoffs.
Kenny Pickett is an extreme dark horse. He has the 23rd best odds in the NFL at +4500. This implies about a 2% chance for him to win MVP. Clearly, if you’re betting on a rise from Pickett, now is the time to do it.
That being said, there is still a case to be made for Pickett. Barber stated that “Dark horse candidates are always bad bets” because they “need everything to go right for their team to win.” Essentially, the case is that, if everything goes right for the Steelers, Pickett could be a contender for the award.
Before the 2022 season, Jalen Hurts’ odds for MVP were around the +3000 range. After week 13, He was favored to win it. While he didn’t win the award partially due to injury, Hurts certainly proved that it is possible for underdogs to make huge leaps.
The main factor that pushed Hurts so high up the charts was the Eagles record. Hurt’s stats were good, but nowhere near the other top contenders. If the Steelers can have a similar season to the 2022 Eagles, Pickett’s stock should skyrocket, regardless of his individual play.
Like Barber alluded to, the Steelers have two great wide receivers. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are both dynamic threats on the outside. Although the production wasn’t great last year, the talent is blatantly obvious.
Diontae Johnson is one of the league’s best route runners. While he doesn’t earn much respect in the eye of the public, he did earn $18 million per year from the Steelers. The NFL players and staff consider him one of the best in the league. Eagles cornerback Darius Slay even listed Johnson in his top five receivers he faced in 2023.
George Pickens is a much different type of receiver,. His ability to make contested catches and win vertically compliments Johnson’s skillset well. Pickens had the highest contested catch rate of all receivers in 2023 according to PFF. While his route tree is somewhat limited, Pickens has a lot of improvement ahead of him as he enters his second season.
The 2023 Steelers offense should be much improved. Calvin Austin or Allen Robinson should fill the third receiver spot. In addition, the running game should become more efficient due to improved blocking. Not to mention, Pat Freiermuth is slowly becoming an elite tight end. Pickett should have no shortage of options.
If all goes right, Pickett is in position to make a run at MVP. That is a big if, but it is a possibility. He has the weapons and the defense will be good enough. If Pickett is playing at a near MVP level, the Steelers should win one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. He will also need some luck with some of the favorites underperforming, but that isn’t impossible. A Kenny Pickett dark horse MVP season is not out of the question.
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Feature image courtesy of Steelers.com
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