Every year in sports, there are risers: teams that improve upon their previous season and win more games, and there are fallers: teams that regress due to injury, personnel, or something else. Today, we’re going to take a look at some NFL fallers and why they might underperform in 2026 in comparison to 2025
NFL Fallers for the 2026 Season
2025 Record: 14-3 (lost AFCCG)
The Broncos played a lot of close games in 2025. They won 12 one-score games last season. When you look at teams that are primed for regression, that is often a key warning sign. The Chiefs from a couple of seasons ago followed the same trend. Some of it comes down to luck, or clutch factor, but ultimately, if you are playing that many close games, your luck will start to run out, and your players will wear down. I think the Broncos still have a winning formula out in the mile-high city, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they make the playoffs again, but I don’t believe that another 14-win season is in the cards.
2025 Record: 10-7 (lost AFCWC)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have accepted mediocrity for the last several years, and their most recent coaching hire signals to their fans and the rest of the NFL that it will continue to be that way. Not to say that Mike McCarthy is a bad coach; he does have a Super Bowl win after all, but it isn’t exactly an inspired hire for a team that has been middling. With Aaron Rodgers on a goodbye tour and some powerhouses in their division likely rounding into form, I wouldn’t expect much out of the Steelers this year. Will they be the worst team in the league? Probably not, but I don’t see a playoff run in the tank for them in 2026.
2025 Record: 8-9 (missed playoffs)
I just don’t think that Todd Bowles is a head coach who can lead a team to sustained success. Some coaches are fantastic offensive or defensive coordinators, but bad head coaches, and I think that Bowles falls into that bucket. I was surprised that they didn’t fire him after a disappointing season in 2025. After some key player departures in the offseason, most notably star WR Mike Evans, I don’t see how this team is going to improve with any significance in 2026. They added a few pieces on defense, but with a shaky coaching staff, it may not be enough.
2025 Record: 5-12 (missed playoffs)
The Cleveland Browns were already in a bad place last season, and it didn’t seem like they could sink any lower. Then they traded Myles Garrett, who seemed to be the main person keeping them relevant. They fired Kevin Stefanski, only to replace him with Todd Monken, who seems to be a bridge coach at best. That is all before you even mention the albatross of a contract that they still have on the books for Deshaun Watson, who may even start some games this year. To the Browns’ credit, they have drafted decently well these past couple seasons, just not at quarterback, the most important position.
2025 Record: 11-6 (lost NFCDIV)
I still think the Bears will be a decent team in 2026. Caleb Williams has a spark to him that is undeniable, and Ben Johnson is one of the better offensive minds in the game. What I see when I look at the Bears’ 2025 season is unsustainable. They won close games, they had a lot of comebacks, and most importantly, they led the league by a wide margin in turnover differential. Their defense relied heavily on turnovers, and that is something that you simply cannot always count on as a defense. In an NFC with some heavy-hitting offenses, the Bears should be able to hold pace on offense, but when the turnovers dry up, their defense may be left out to dry.
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