With the end of the NBA regular season, seeding is officially locked. As the 1 and 2 seeds from each conference—Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets in the West, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics in the East—await the winners of the play-in games, these are the matchups we know thus far.
This will be the third ever series between the two, having last played in the 2004 Western Conference Finals, where the 2-seeded Lakers, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant defeated the 1-seed T-Wolves, led by league MVP Kevin Garnett 4-2.
The two also met in the 2023 play-in game to decide the 7-seed, with the Lakers winning that 108-102. A number of players from that game return for this series, including Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards from the T-Wolves, and LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Rui Hachimura from the Lakers.
Of course, the attention on this series will be on Lakers guard Luka Doncic—the second most prolific playoff scorer at 30.92 points per game—who famously ousted the T-Wolves in the Western Conference Finals last season in five games with a string of marquee performances. Most notable of those being the close out game, where in the first quarter he outscored the entire T-Wolves team 20 to 19. The Mavs would win convincingly, 124-103.
The Lakers are favored to win the series (-180).
The Clippers finished the season 19-3 and second in net rating over that stretch. The Nuggets fired their head coach Mika Malone a week ago.
But even with these teams heading in opposite directions, the Nuggets are the slight betting favorite to win the series (-150). And that happens when you have the best player in the NBA. Nikola Jokic capped off the most productive season of his career by finishing as just the third player and the only center to average a triple double for a season.
As one of the greatest risers in NBA playoff history, Jokic only ups his production as the competition grows steeper. His career average of 27.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per playoff game puts him in the top 17 in all three categories.
And not to be outdone, Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard is likewise one of the few that increases his productivity in the postseason. Leonard in 2019 posted the third most prolific playoff season of all time (732 points), and after missing the first 34 games of this season, he is rounding into form. Over his last 19 games the Klaw is averaging 25.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game.
And perhaps most impressive of all is the sustained court time. Leonard has played 36.1 minutes per game over the same stretch, last week playing 38, 42, and 47(!!!) minutes against three Western conference playoff opponents (Houston, Sacramento, and Golden State).
Although the Knicks finished one win better than last year (51-31 this year), the temperature of the team heading into the playoffs is tenuous given their struggles against the league’s best. Against the top two teams in the East—Boston and Cleveland—the Knicks finished with a combined record of 0-8.
And in the regular season series against the Pistons, the Knicks have a 1-3 record, with the last three contests going to the Pistons.
Detroit is playing with found money. Starting the season with the fourth lowest predicted over-under (25.5 games), the Pistons have smashed their preseason expectations by over 18 games (44-38).
With that said, this will be uncharted territory for many of the Pistons critical contributors. Star guard Cade Cunnigham, center Jalen Duren, and forward Ausar Thompson will be making their playoff debuts. They will be flanked by seasoned playoff vets in Dennis Schröder (68 games), Tobias Harris (61 games), Tim Hardaway Jr. (42 games) and Malik Beasley (37 games).
After an ankle sprain against the Lakers caused Knicks guard Jalen Brunson to miss 15 straight games, he returned to the starting lineup to close four of the last five with up and down effectiveness.
Last year’s playoff run was a rousing success for Brunson, scoring 40 points or more in five of his 13 playoff games, including three straight such performances against the Philadelphia 76ers.
His effectiveness is critical for the Knicks’ success, and his front court running mate Karl Anthony-Towns must follow along in order to quiet the detractors.
Even with concerns about the Knicks play versus playoff competition, they are major favorites to win the series (-430).
A rematch of last year’s first round series where the Pacers won 4-2, this time the Pacers will have home court advantage while the Bucks are again missing a star player.
Perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play in last year’s matchup, and this time around, it will be Damian Lillard absent due to his recent diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis.
Antetokounmpo has taken the reins as the Bucks de facto playmaker in Lillard’s absence however, averaging 11.8 assists over his last 6 games—all of which wins. Just those six games alone raised his per game assist average from 5.9 to 6.5 for the season.
The Pacers’ entire eight man rotation from last year’s series returns–a balanced platoon featuring six players that averaged double figures in the matchup (Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, and Aaron Nesmith).
Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has regained the form which propelled him to All-NBA status last year. Over his last 21 games, he has posted an obscene blend of scoring and distributing efficiency, averaging 20.6 points per game on a blistering 53.3% from the field and 43.9% from 3, and averaging 11 assists per game while only committing 1.2 turnovers.
Haliburton also reached 500 assists this season before committing 100 turnovers, a feat which has not been accomplished since 2007-08 when Jose Calderon did it for the Toronto Raptors.
As such, the Pacers are sizable favorites to win the series (-230).
Stay tuned for more NBA content, including midseason moves, contract updates, and more pieces about every team.
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