Superstition is a major part of being a hockey fan. The New Jersey Devils fanbase has one of those theories as well, the Bastian effect.
Nathan Bastian is a right winger for the New Jersey Devils. The Devils selected him in the 2nd round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. He hasn’t lived up to the expectations for a player drafted that high. The Seattle Kraken also selected him in the expansion draft, although he quickly found himself back in New Jersey.
Bastian has scored 24 goals and logged 22 assists for 46 points in 163 career games along with 127 penalty minutes. His statistics aren’t dazzling by any means, but he has an impact on the Devils.
To the untrained eye, Nathan Bastian is just another run of the mill 4th line grinder. He’s got size, NHL.com has him listed as 6’4 and 205 lbs. He throws the body around with 453 career hits, including 99 in 43 games this past season. Overall, he’s the type of player who comes cheap and comes by often, but why is he so important to this team’s success?
Bastian sustained multiple injuries that left him sidelined for 39 games in the 2022-23 season. The Devils’ record during those stints? 19-15-5, counting overtime losses, they were a sub-.500 team without him in the lineup. On the contrary, their record with him in the lineup was a sweltering 33-7-3 which included no consecutive losses and a franchise record (tied) 13-game winning streak.
The Devils underwent a rough stretch in December where they lost 8 of 9 games. Bastian was out of the lineup for all of these games. This led the Devils fanbase to dub him as the ‘glue guy’ because they unraveled without him. When he came back to the team in January before getting hurt again, the team went on a 12-3-3 run. With every stretch of time, the legend of Nathan Bastian grew within the fanbase. The Bastian effect went from a funny joke to an undeniable fact, coincidence or not.
As for Bastian’s underlying metrics that can explain the impact he has on the Devils, there isn’t much out there that undeniably proves anything. However, he was seventh on the team in expected goals for per 60 minutes, which is a stat that measures chance quality on a per 60-minute basis. For a 4th liner, that’s a luxury for a team. Nonetheless, it still doesn’t explain why the Devils were so good with him as opposed to without him.
Maybe that’s the beauty of it. In a sports world that is increasingly overflowing with new data for player evaluation, the non-quantifiable factors are being overlooked. Data and analytics are a great thing in sports and they’ve helped teams achieve success. However, there are some things that can’t be quantified and the Bastian effect is one of them.
Stay tuned for more New Jersey Devils and NHL content, including trades, signings, and various updates.
Featured image courtesy of NHL.com
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