How Can the Rockets and Lakers Recover From 3-1?

Other than the Oklahoma City Thunder, the top-seeded teams in the Western Conference have struggled in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Denver Nuggets posted a resounding win over the LA Clippers to take a 3-2 series lead, but the Houston Rockets and LA Lakers have not fared as well—both falling into 3-1 deficits as they return to their home floors. Teams falling to 3-1 have historically only won their series 4.5% of the time—what do the Rockets and Lakers need to do in order to upend those odds?

Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James is no stranger to 3-1 comebacks, but to ask a 22-year veteran to post back-to-back 40-point games and a triple double in game 7 is a bit much. And it is no fault of his that the Lakers are down. His per game averages—26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on 50.7% shooting—are what we’ve come to expect from him, but his second half performance in game 4 calls into question whether or not he can do what head coach JJ Redick is asking of him. James did not score in the fourth quarter—a departure from regular season average of 7.2 points.

A combination of playing the entire second half and a deferral to Luka Doncic played a part in James’ passivity, which must be corrected for the Lakers to even see game 6.

Speaking of Doncic, he rebounded from game 3’s bout with a stomach bug with typical Luka scoring volume—38 points. What has been atypical about his performance thus far is his contributions elsewhere—particularly his playmaking.

Doncic collected just one assist in game 4, making it the second time in the series he has cracked just one assist. The Lakers change to a 3-point shooting team with the acquisition of Doncic—from 26th to 2nd in attempts per 100 possessions—was a revelation for them during the regular season, and must be revitalized for them to stage the comeback.

Elsewhere, the Lakers must gain any meaningful contributions from their 6-8th men. Coach Redick’s decision to cut center Jaxson Hayes from the rotation has left the front court paper thin, making James the de facto center for long stretches.

Gabe Vincent, Jordan Goodwin, and Jarred Vanderbilt, who collectively played 27 scoreless minutes in game 4, must contribute offensively to ease the load on Doncic, James, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura.

Houston Rockets

Against the Golden State Warriors, the Rocket’s series thus far can be summed up in one note:  a consistent failure to generate offense. This was especially apparent in the second half of both games in San Franciso, as the Warriors were +10 in game 3 and +14 in game 4.

Much of the offensive sputtering can be attributed to Jalen Green. The Rockets’ leading scorer in the regular season has performed poorly, eclipsing double digit scoring just once—38 points in game 2 where the Rockets won. Despite a 21 ppg season average, Green has always been a sporadic scorer, seeing him achieve highs such as his 29.2 ppg average over a month last year, to what we see now, where the concerted Golden State effort to get him off the ball has driven his scoring to the floor.

If the Rockets are to win this series, they need to see Green return to regular season form. A 38 point outburst might not be necessary if players like Fred VanVleet continue their hot shooting (25 points on 8-12 from the 3-point line), but consistent, reliable output is in order to win three straight.

The supplementary offensive options for the Rockets, namely Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith Jr., have performed beyond their expected output, shooting a collective 14-27 from three across the series.

Despite averaging just 13.7 minutes per game in the regular season, center Steven Adams has been a revelation as part of their double big lineup with Alperen Sengun. The Kiwi has notched at ;east 16 minutes in every game thus far due to his value on the offensive glass, hauling 4 in game 3 and 5 in game 4.

Adams is a historically great offensive rebounder, ranking 9th all-time. Should the Rockets continue to flounder from the field (43.2% field goals for the series), Adams will need to remain on the floor to generate those additional offensive possessions.

Stay tuned for more NBA content, including midseason moves, contract updates, and more pieces about every team.

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