There’s an adage that game 1 of an NBA playoff series is a “feel out” game—and while that may be true in some cases, game one can also define the makeup of a series. 77.8% of teams that take a 1-0 lead go on to win the series. These are the takeaways after a rousing set of opening play for tonight’s action.
How heavily the Clippers use the pick and roll will determine the series. The Clippers built up a 51-36 second quarter advantage by allowing James Harden to dictate the offense—either isolating into a patented step back three or dumping off to Ivica Zubac in the short roll where he’s continued to feast against Nikola Jokic by finishing at the rim or hitting cutters like Kris Dunn. Harden finished with a game high 32 points and 11 assists, and collectively the team shot an efficient 50% from the field largely using the pick-and-roll.
As the game tightened, the Clippers placed an uncomfortable amount of ball-handling responsibility on Kawhi Leonard, leading to his game high 7 turnovers. A couple of fourth quarter and overtime heroics from Russell Westbrook later, and the Nuggets escaped with a 112-110 victory. Expect game 2 to feature a heavier dosage of James Harden pick-and-roll throughout.
For the Nuggets, a replication in production from forward Aaron Gordon is a recipe for success. The veteran notched 25 points on an efficient 8-14 shooting from the field and a high volume 8-10 from the free throw line. Gordon is posting a career high 81% from the foul line this season, and will need that to continue as the Clippers schematically look to have him take on more of a volume scoring threat.
Any production from a non-Jokic player would likewise be much appreciated. Michael Porter Jr. took just 4 shots and finished with 3 points, something that cannot happen the rest of the series. Nikola Jokic can carry a majority of the load—he has proven that. But not all of it.
Detroit’s ball security must be better for the Pistons to steal a road game. The finalist for this year’s Most Improved Player—Cade Cunningham–posted an average amount of offensive volume—21 points and 12 assists—but was inefficient, shooting 8-21 from the field and committing a crippling six turnovers. As a team, the Pistons posted nearly double the turnover rate (18.1%) of the Knicks (9.9%). Cunningham was vexed by the Knicks’ pick-and-roll coverage, coughing up four turnovers on the ball due to the length and active hands from OG Anunoby and Karl Anthony-Towns.
Even non-volume ball handlers, like Ausar Thompson, debuted a case of playoff yips when faced with the added intensity of the playoff atmosphere. His three turnovers were more than double his season average (1.4).
The Knicks were not only solid on the ball, but drew production out of secondary candidates. The 21-0 run which propelled the Knicks in the fourth quarter was catalyzed by the play of veteran guard Cameron Payne, who made four field goals in the critical frame, including a pivotal 3 to put the Knicks up five.
The production from Payne allowed Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau to stray away from his playoff tendency to ride his starters all game. Josh Hart, who famously played every minute of four games in the 2024 playoffs, including a 53-minute overtime outing against the Philadelphia 76ers, notched a meager 29 minutes of court time in game one. The contributions of Payne, Miles McBride, and Landry Shamet will all be necessary to avoid the burnout that led to the Knicks’ historic defeat in game 7 against the Indiana Pacers last year.
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