In the first round of the NBA Playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will face off against the Orlando Magic. The Cavaliers have the slight upper hand, at the four seed while Orlando is five, but it should be a close matchup. Here’s a Cavaliers and Magic series preview.
Splitting the season series two to two, these teams have been pretty evenly matched up. They’re even within two spots of each other in net ranking, with Cleveland at 12th (2.5) and Orlando at 14th (2.2).
This season the Cavaliers averaged 112.6 points, 43.3 rebounds and 28 assists a game with 7.4 steals and 4.6 blocks. They shot 47.7 percent from the field, 36.7 percent from three and turned the ball over an average 13.6 times. Cleveland’s average defensive rating is 112.7.
Against the Magic the Cavs averaged slightly less points (112.5), rebounds (41.3), assists (26) and blocks (3.5). They do however, shoot better from the field (49.8 field goal percentage) and from deep (39.6 three point percentage). They also average more steals (8.3) and slightly more turnovers with a higher defensive rating (115.5).
Interestingly, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both play better against the Magic, while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen play slightly worse. Mitchell averages slightly more points against Orlando with about one more assist, but also shoots slightly less accurately. Garland averages more points (26.7 compared to 18), assists (7.3 to 6.1), and grabs an average of one extra rebound when playing the Magic. He also shoots better across the board and commits less turnovers.
Mobley and Allen, on the other hand, don’t fare as well. Against Orlando, they average less points and rebounds while each committing more turnovers. They also each have a higher defensive rating, with Allen’s ticking to 110.8 (110.3 average), and Mobley’s jumping to 113.6 (108.5 average). They do, however, both shoot more accurately from the field when playing the Magic.
This season the Magic are averaging 110.5 points, 42.3 rebounds and 24.7 assists per game. They shoot 47.6 percent from the field, and 35.2 percent from behind the arc. Orlando also averaged 8.2 steals and 5.2 blocks while committing 14.7 turnovers. Their average defensive rating is 111.3.
The Magic also tend to struggle as a unit against Cleveland, averaging less points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. Their defensive rating also rockets up to 120.8 against the Cavaliers.
They do average less turnovers (12.8) and a higher field goal percentage (47.6 percent), but the overall difference in team performance is negative when playing against the Cavaliers.
Paolo Banchero is averaging 23 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists against Cleveland this season. But, considering he leads the team in each of those stats against the Cavs (with at least two games played), the team’s performance isn’t too impressive.
The next highest scorer against Cleveland has been Franz Wagner with 16 points per game, and Jalen Suggs is only averaging 6.3 with an average of 20.4 minutes per game against Cleveland in four games.
Banchero’s defensive rating also jumps from an average 111.8 to 123.3 when playing the Cavaliers.
That’s not to say, though, that Orlando won’t play quality defense this series.
Despite the Magic’s defensive woes against the Cavaliers, they’re a defensively sound team. They currently possess the second best defensive rating in the league at 111.3. In fact, since the all star break they’ve had the lowest defensive rating in the NBA at 109.7.
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, currently have the sixth best defensive rating (112.7), with the seventh highest defensive rating since the all-star break (117.4). Aside from that stretch seeing some of Cleveland’s worst defensive performances, it also saw some of Cleveland’s biggest wins of the season.
Between the defensive prowess of the teams, and the youth permeating their rosters, their matchups are always hard fought. Players average more turnovers, more fouls and assists are rarer. This series should be no exception, but there are some interesting wrinkles leading into it.
For starters, each team’s performance since the all-star break isn’t indicative of each team’s state during their matchups. While the Magic have been on a steady incline this season, the Cavaliers have had a tumultuous season in terms of continuity.
Also, Jonathan Isaac has been getting more playing time. A defensive stalwart, the Magic will probably give Isaac a lot more exposure against the Cavs than they’ve seen this season. Given he can lock down almost any position, Isaac should cause problems for Cleveland.
Postseason experience should also play a factor. This iteration of the Magic have never been to the playoffs, and it’ll be their franchise cornerstone’s postseason debut. No matter how talented a team is, playoff experience is valuable.
Just ask the Cavaliers, whose season ended in the first round last year. Cleveland’s experience could be the lifeline of their advancement.
Although this Magic team is a bit too young to know what they don’t know, and the pressure to succeed after last year’s exit could prove to be too much for the Cavs.
Either way, it’ll be a hard fought series which will probably take a couple games to determine who’s more in control. The Cavaliers should win, but it’s impossible to tell with a team playing as well as the Magic are. The series kicks off on saturday.
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Featured photo courtesy of NBA.com
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