The NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year race wasn’t interesting—at least competitively. Spurs center Victor Wembanyama was a shoo-in to earn his first Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy as a -2500 betting favorite, giving him 96.15% implied odds of winning. But last Thursday’s news of Wembanyama’s shutdown has shaken the race, and those previously aiming for second now have a legitimate chance.
In his wake, two names have separated themselves as clear leaders: Grizzles forward Jaren Jackson Jr. and Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley.
Jackson Jr.(-105) is the odds on favorite and a past winner of the award in 2023. The 7-year man has taken the mantle as the Grizzlies number one scoring option, and has propelled the team to second in the Western Conference, but his position as the favorite is puzzling given the team’s defensive standing (eighth in the NBA) and how this campaign compares to his 2023 season.
For better or worse, defensive counting stats (blocks and steals) are always the chief component of how voters evaluate defensive prowess. And Jackson Jr’s are good. He’s averaging a career high 1.3 steals per game and 1.7 blocks per game. But those numbers aren’t eye-catching in the way that his 2023 campaign was (1 steal and 3 blocks per game). Nor are his rebounding numbers—a constant mark critique of his game—which are not only unimpressive for him (6 per game), but are unimpressive relative to other centers and forwards. For reference, 6 foot 4 inch Josh Hart averages 9.7 rebounds per game while also playing with Karl-Anthony Towns. Jackson Jr. is 6-10 and has never cracked 7 rebounds per game.
Second, Jackson Jr. simply does not carry the kind of defensive load that other players do. He averages less than 30 minutes per game, and does not rank in the top 50 in defended field goal attempts per game. Although he is one of the premier defenders in terms of effectiveness (players shoot 40.8% against him), he does not have the volume to warrant his betting odds.
Mobley (+130) is an interesting case, where his counting stats aren’t that impressive (0.9 steals and 1.6 blocks per game) and the team is great defensively, but not in the ultra-elite (seventh in the NBA). He’s even played fewer minutes than Jackson Jr. on a similar number per game (30).
What he does, however, is rebound better (9.3 per game), and defend more shots (ranked 17 with 16.5 field goal attempts defended per game). And his biggest plus is his defensive rating; amongst players playing at least 30 minutes per game, Mobley ranks fifth in the NBA with a 106.9 defensive rating. Do note that if the cutoff moved to 29 minutes per game, Jackson Jr. would be right above Mobley with a 106.8 defensive rating.
So Mobley does mirror him there, but has the added benefit of being a fresh face for voters. Last year, Mobley did not receive a single vote for DPOY, and his role as a switchable big on a top two Cavs team makes him one of the most valuable defensive pieces in the modern NBA. Voter fatigue will sway how Jackson Jr. is perceived, and unless he can approach production that better replicates his 2023 campaign, I expect the race to start to sway towards Mobley.
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