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Vladimir Guerrero’s Hall of Fame Case

If anyone in baseball were to be considered must-see TV, it would be Vladimir Guerrero. The nine-time All-Star would swing at anything, yet somehow had a career batting average of .318. Growing up watching “SportsCenter”, I would constantly see highlights of Guerrero getting base hits off balls that bounced before reaching home plate. Vlad also had arguably one of the strongest arms this game has ever seen. If you somehow forgot, go to YouTube and watch him throw a ball 370 feet at Yankee Stadium.

Last year, his first time on the Hall of Fame ballot, Guerrero finished 15 votes shy of becoming the 53rd player inducted as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Luckily for Guerrero, history says this will be his year. Over the last 10 years, Roberto Alomar is the only player who reached at least 70 percent of the vote in his first year and was not elected the following year. For Alomar, the third time was the charm, receiving over 90 percent of the vote.

If Guerrero’s name is called in January, he will join Juan Marichal and Pedro Martinez as the only players from the Dominican Republic to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Yet, after breaking down the numbers, it is mindboggling how Guerrero was not a first ballot selection. Let’s take a look back through his eminent career.

Started from the Bottom

Guerrero, one of five children, grew up dirt poor in the Dominican Republic.  He would constantly drink from puddles because the shack he lived in had no running water or electricity. The word “shack” is used because, after a hurricane blew the roof off, his seven family members had to share one room, with only two total beds. When his mother was three months pregnant with him, his father abandoned the family.

From puddles to Cooperstown? (AZ Quotes)

Guerrero was forced to stop going to school after fifth grade because he, according to Sports Illustrated, “missed so many classes while instead harvesting vegetables in the field.”

The lack of education was a main reason why Guerrero shied away from interviews during his career, as his English was not where it should have been.

As a teenager, Vlad drew interest from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who, according to Sports Illustrated, saw Guerrero as “a slow, fat player with a long swing.”

When Guerrero was invited to a try-out with the Montreal Expos in 1993, he “hitched a ride on the back of a friend’s motorcycle, showed up with a mismatched pair of spikes with a sock jammed into one that was too big,” according to Sports Illustrated. Ultimately, the former Expos scout, Fred Ferrera, signed Guerrero for $2,000.

Guerrero would go on to hit 449 home runs and make $125,541,455 in the MLB.

Numbers Never Lie

In his 16-year career, Guerrero was an eight-time Silver Slugger, nine-time All-Star and 2004 AL MVP. He is one of only three right fielders to have at least 2,500 hits, 400 home runs and a batting average over .300. Joining Guerrero on that list are Hall of Famers Hank Aaron and Mel Ott.

Guerrero’s six seasons of at least 30 home runs, 30 doubles and a .300 average are the most among all qualified right fielders. Hank Aaron had five, and Mel Ott totaled three. The only players in MLB history with more than six seasons of .300/30/30 are Albert Pujols, Lou Gehrig, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmie Foxx.

PLAYERS WITH AT LEAST 1300 RUNS, 440 HR, .310 BA, 2580 HITS, 4500 TB

*= ACTIVE

BOLD= HOF

STAN MUSIAL
BABE RUTH
LOU GEHRIG
TED WILLIAMS
JIMMIE FOXX
MIGUEL CABRERA*
VLADIMIR GUERRERO

As a rookie for the Montreal Expos, Guerrero, in 325 at-bats, hit .302 with 11 home runs and 40 RBIs. The following season, now a full-time starter, Guerrero hit .324/38/109. At just 23 years of age, Vlad was already one of the best hitters in the game. Over the next nine seasons, Guerrero made eight All-Star teams and was one of the best overall players in the league.

The 2004 AL MVP, Mr. Vladimir Guerrero (The Trentonian)

From 1998-2007, Guerrero ranked 10th in WAR, and was the highest right fielder on the list. Yes, for a 10-year stretch, Guerrero was the best right fielder in the game.

Guerrero’s average season from 1998-2008 was .325/34/111. Let’s emphasize that. For 11 years, Vladimir Guerrero gave you a .325 batting average, 34 home runs and 111 RBIs. Guerrero joined Lou Gehrig, Hank Aaron and Miguel Cabrera, as the only players from their third to 13th season who had 2000 hits, a .320 batting average, and 350 home runs.

He eventually became the best player on the Expos and then was the best on the Angels for his first few seasons as a member of the team. Before turning 30, he joined Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx and Albert Pujols, as the only players, aged 29 or younger, to hit .325 with 270 home runs.

His age 29 season turned out to be his MVP year, as Guerrero led the league in runs and bases while hitting .337/39/126. This would be one of seven seasons in which Vlad hit .300/30/100 with over 330 total bases. Obviously, RBIs are more of a team-based stat, but, nonetheless, here is a list of players, with their amount of seasons, in which they hit .300/30/100 and had at least 330 total bases.

SEASONS WITH .300/30/100 + 330 TB

PLAYER# OF SEASONS
BABE RUTH10
ALBERT PUJOLS9
LOU GEHRIG8
VLADIMIR GUERRERO7
ALEX RODRIGUEZ7
HANK AARON7
WILLIE MAYS7
JIMMIE FOXX7
TED WILLIAMS6
STAN MUSIAL5
BARRY BONDS4

Later Years

Did he slow down after hitting age 30? Absolutely not. In fact, Guerrero is one of five players who, from age 30-35, to hit .310, 150 home runs, and had at least 1,000 hits. That list includes Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Dante Bichette and Babe Ruth.

The 35 Year-Old All-Star (Business Insider)

During his age 35 season, now with the Texas Rangers, Vladimir Guerrero made his ninth All-Star team. He would end the year .300/29/115. The only other players, aged 35 or older, who hit .300/29/110 with 175 hits are Babe Ruth, Andres Gallarraga, Edgar Martinez and Manny Ramirez.

Over the span of his career (1996-2011), Guerrero finished second in hits, fourth in RBIs, and third in intentional walks. He had 13 games in which he eclipsed four hits, three RBIs, and one home run. The only other players to have more than 13 games with these numbers are: Lou Gehrig, Miguel Cabrera, Al Simmons, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Dante Bichette, Dave Winfield, Manny Ramirez, Chuck Klein and Babe Ruth.

Seven of those men are Hall of Famers, one is still active and will be their eventually, and Manny, well, we will see this year how he gets treated.

All in all, Guerrero’s offensive numbers are out of this world. He is up there with the greats, and constantly performed even past his prime. As you can tell, he was absolutely snubbed last year. Using Bill James’s point system, the average Hall of Famer scores a 50. Guerrero is at 58. He finished with a higher WAR than guys like Willie Stargell, Hank Greenberg, and Tony Perez.

The fact that Guerrero was not a first ballot Hall of Famer is disappointing, but it will be awesome to see him get enshrined in January.

Featured image by SI.com

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