There are about three weeks left to go in the MLB regular season, and several teams are still jockeying for playoff position. No team has clinched a playoff spot yet, while only a few have been fully eliminated.
Today, we’re looking at six regular season series that will be of vital importance to the postseason picture. Whether it’s for a divisional crown or home-field advantage, here are some matchups that are crucial as we come down the home stretch of the MLB season.
The first of these monumental series happens this coming weekend at Truist Park. The Braves are currently up four games on the Phillies for control of the NL East. With both teams having a three-game set between now and then, the division lead for the Braves could be down to one by this weekend, which would make this a must-win series for both sides.
On the flip side, the division lead could also balloon to seven by the time Friday rolls around, which would make the series matter a little less. Atlanta has already secured the season series and that tiebreaker. Outside of the division, Atlanta is fighting for a top-two seed and a bye, while the Phillies are trying to maintain their first-place wild card spot. The Braves have already announced Cy Young contender Chris Sale as their starter for game one.
I don’t think a lot of people expected that we would be talking about the White Sox as a division leader this far into the season. By next week, we will see if we are still talking about them as such. They currently lead the Guardians by a slim three games, and the teams will clash in Cleveland next week. The lead in the division could be wildly different by then, as each team will have a few games before the set.
The White Sox have struggled to pitch consistently in their recent games, while the Guardians’ recent offensive resurgence has given them more steady footing. Chicago only needs to win one game of the three-game set in order to clinch the season series and give themselves another leg up on Cleveland as they race towards the AL Central crown. Whichever team doesn’t win the division will still be right in the thick of the wild card.
Both Toronto and Texas are teams that have underperformed expectations this year, and as such, both are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture. Toronto sits one game back of the third wild card, while Texas is one and a half games out. There is really only one wild card spot up for grabs in the AL, as Boston, who sits in the second spot, is at least seven games up on everyone else.
This series between the Blue Jays and Rangers could very well determine who will still be alive for that last playoff spot come the end of September. As it lines up now, Dylan Cease, a Cy Young frontrunner, would be lined up to pitch during this series, which would give Toronto an advantage out of the gate. Also notable is the fact that Texas is still alive in their division. They are only two games back of the Astros in the West, so they have even more to play for than a wild card spot.
This marquee series between the leaders in the AL East will feature four games over three days, including a split-doubleheader on September 22. The Rays have led the division for a majority of the season, with the Yankees lapping at their heels the entire time. The division lead as of now sits at four games, but it could be less than that going into the series on the 22nd. Tampa Bay will only need to win one of the four in order to secure the season series tiebreaker.
The Rays have a much more difficult schedule up until they travel to the Bronx, as they have to play Atlanta, Houston, and Boston, while the Yankees’ only real test will be Arizona. These teams match up well, especially when you consider how good the Yankees’ pitching staff and the Rays’ bats have been. We will see if the Rays’ pitching can keep the Yankees’ bats in check, now that Aaron Judge has returned from injury. This series may very well decide who gets the number one seed in the American League playoffs.
This is the only series on this list that is an interleague series, but it will still have playoff ramifications for both sides. Not to mention that both of these clubs have been incredibly exciting to watch this season. As of today, both Boston and Chicago occupy the second wild card spot in their respective leagues, and they each have an outside shot at their division. It does seem, at this point, that they both are more focused on that wild card seeding than winning their divisions, given the slim chance.
In the wild card series, the number one team guarantees home-field advantage for the three games, which can be a huge leg-up when it comes to the short sprint that those wild-card series can be. Boston’s pitching staff has been rolling here recently, most notably rookie Payton Tolle. On the flip side, Chicago and manager Craig Counsell cannot seem to solve the puzzle of their bullpen. They have blown several leads over the last few weeks, many after a good effort from their offense and starting pitcher. That will need to be figured out if they want to take this decisive series and be a factor in the playoffs.
The final wild card spot in the National League will almost certainly come down to these two clubs, so how fitting is it that their last series of the season will be against each other? Currently, the Diamondbacks hold a precarious half-game lead for that third spot, so anything can happen over these last few weeks. The season series between these two is tied five to five, so this final series will also decide that tiebreaker.
I have been on record saying that I see these teams as pretty even offensively, with a little more trust in the Padres’ pitching staff. That could change towards the end of this season, as Corbin Burnes is scheduled to make his season debut for Arizona today. That said, it’s hard to bet against Mason Miller and the back end of that San Diego bullpen. Get some popcorn for this series, because it very well may be win-and-in.
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