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Contract expectations for Mookie Betts in 2018

Mookie Betts contract 2018

Markus Lynn Betts is one of Major League Baseball’s rising stars. In 2016, Betts placed second in the American League MVP vote, while being awarded his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards.

Prior to the 2017 season, the Boston Red Sox raised Betts’ contract from the league minimum of just about $500,000 to $950,000 as a sign of good faith, as he clearly deserved a raise after his miraculous season, although Betts felt he deserved much more. According to ESPN.com writer Scott Lauber, the Red Sox failed to ink Betts to a long-term deal as “[they] just couldn’t come up with a number that he thought was the right number for him”.

In 2017, Betts struggled, batting just .264, compared to his .318 mark a year before, although he managed to score and drive in 100 runs, while also winning his second Gold Glove, a feat that only three former Red Sox players have accomplished: Dwight Evans, Fred Lynn and Carl Yastrzemski.

The 25-year-old Betts is entering his first year of arbitration, so it’s time to speculate over what dollar amount he will command this offseason. In order to find Mookie’s true market value, we must look at comparable players and what contracts they signed during their first arbitration eligible year.

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen, a first-round pick in 2005 by the Pittsburgh Pirates, entered the major leagues in 2009. Through their first three years of service time, McCutchen and Betts post nearly identical stats across the board.

 

Player (ages)

PAGBA / OBP / SLGWARHRXBHRBISB
Andrew McCutchen (22-25)2497577.290/.374/.48418.88223229598
Mookie Betts (21-24)2309508.292/.351/.48824.17823631080
Mookie Betts contract 2018
(Photo by USA Today)

Also, they share a multitude of awards and accomplishments, including a top-three MVP finish, two All-Star appearances, a Silver Slugger and at least one Gold Glove.

Prior to the 2013 season, McCutchen avoided arbitration by signing a six-year, $51.5 million contract. Due to the contract being back-loaded, McCutchen made a total of $4.86 million in 2013.

With this in mind, if Betts were to go to arbitration, it would be fair to assume that Betts would command more that the $4.86 million that McCutchen agreed to play for in 2013, as you would have to account for inflation, as well as financial insurance due to the fact that it would be a one-year deal.

If he were to avoid arbitration, it is fair to assume he would command well over the $8.6 million per year that McCutchen signed for prior to 2013, as you must account for inflation, as well as the fact that Betts was just a hair more productive over the same period.

Mike Trout

Trout, a first-round pick in 2009 by the Los Angeles Angels, made his major league debut in 2011, although his first full year of service time didn’t come until 2012. Since that time, Trout is, and has been, arguably the best player in baseball. It may come as a surprise to some, and maybe not to others, but Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are very comparable players through their first three years of service time.

 

Player (ages)

PAGBA / OBP / SLGWARHRXBHRBISB
Mike Trout (19-22)2195493.305/.395/.54928.698235307102
Mookie Betts (21-24)2309508.292/.351/.48824.17823631080

In this time period, Trout won a Rookie of the Year and was a three-time All-Star, three-time Silver Slugger, two-time MVP runner-up and one-time MVP.

Mookie Betts contract 2018
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Prior to the 2015 season, Trout avoided arbitration by signing a six-year, $144.5 million contract. In the first year of this deal, Trout made a total of just $6.1 million, although at the end of the day, he would make about $24 million annually.

With this in mind, if Betts were to avoid arbitration, he would likely command a similar deal that offers upwards of $20 million annually. If Betts were to go to arbitration, it is fair to assume that he would command just as much or more than the $6.1 million that Trout agreed to play for in 2015, as once again, you must account for inflation and financial backing.

Market Value

After comparing Betts to arguably the only two comparable players in the MLB, I believe that he is entitled to a hefty raise in 2018. If he were to go to arbitration, I assume he would ask for upwards of $9 million, while the team would propose a deal closer to $7 million.

If he were to avoid arbitration and settle on a one-year deal, an $8 million figure seems appropriate for the 2018 season. If he were to sign a long-term contract, Betts could be looking at a six-year deal for upwards of $120 million, earning him a net of over $20 million a year.

Either way, Betts will be arbitration eligible until the end of the 2020 season, ensuring that at a minimum, Boston will retain the superstar until then. Whenever Betts signs his inevitable long-term deal, he will become one of MLB’ highest paid players, for good reason.

 

Featured image by Over the Monster

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