There is just over a week left in the MLB regular season. One last time in 2026, let’s take a look at the MLB playoff picture and how it might change as we approach October baseball.
In the new MLB playoff format, the first two seeds in each league get a bye. The #6 seed visits the #3 seed and the #5 seed visits the #4 seed in the wild card round.
The AL standings have been hard to look at all year. It really hasn’t gotten much better as we approach the end of the season. One or more teams could make the playoffs with a losing record.
The Rays clinched a playoff spot last week, to the surprise of nobody. They have sat at the top of the AL for most of the season. All they have to do to clinch the number one seed is win their division, as the Yankees are their closest competition. Those two teams play four times this coming week, and the Rays’ magic number for the NL East crown is four.
The Guardians just retook control of the AL Central Friday for the first time since July. They have tracked down the White Sox and are in line for a first-round bye if they can keep it up. Cleveland is getting hot at the right time down the stretch in a weak AL.
The AL West has been up for grabs all season, and no one seems to want it. The Astros have been on top most of the time as of late, but Texas is back on top as of now. They sit right above .500, and many are criticizing the new playoff format for allowing this to happen. They don’t hold the tiebreaker over the Astros, giving Houston a slight leg up.
New York has the second-best record in the American League. Unfortunately, they are likely going to be the four seed in the playoffs. They do play four with the Rays still, but catching them seems unlikely. The Yankees are pretty comfortably in the first wild card spot in order to host a series in the Bronx.
I’m not sure if Red Sox fans thought they would be comfortably in a playoff spot earlier in the season. They are, though, and they are currently slotted to play their rival Yankees in a three-game wild card set.
The White Sox have faded fast. A couple of weeks ago, the division lead seemed pretty good, and now they’re fighting for their playoff lives as their pitching staff struggles. A lot can happen in a week, and they still have a chance to catch Cleveland, but now they are chasing.
Astros own the tiebreaker over the Rangers, but now sit a full game back of the division and two out of the wild card. Their best chance for the playoffs would be taking the division, but neither they nor the Rangers have inspired any confidence. One of these teams has to make the dance, and whoever surges can take it.
Toronto has been playing slightly better this month, but the only reason they’re being mentioned is due to the weakness of the AL. Their remaining games are against the Orioles and Reds, so if they can take care of business against some weaker teams and the White Sox continue to lose, there is a chance for the defending AL champs to make the playoffs.
The NL, in contrast to the AL, is much cleaner. That, and all of the teams are actually good. At this point, the field is pretty much set, with only the D-Backs having a minuscule chance of getting in.
The Brewers just continue to win. They were the first team to clinch a playoff berth and a division, and they are well on track to at least a first-round bye. Their magic number over the Braves for a bye is two. They are also on track to have the first 100-win season in franchise history.
Los Angeles is sitting at the two seed and is also on a good pace for a bye. They could potentially pass Milwaukee for the top seed, but they would need to get hot quickly. Once again, they are NL West champs, and as most people know, are chasing their third straight World Series.
The Braves have been a streaky team this season, but they clinched a playoff spot a few days ago. A bounce-back season after a disappointing 2025 for the Braves. They are still mathematically alive for a bye, but it seems like they are preparing themselves to host a wild-card series at Truist Park. Their magic number to clinch the division is down to two.
At one point, the Cubs seemed a lock for the first wild card slot. The race has gotten much closer recently. The Cubs do hold the tiebreakers over both the Phillies and Padres, so as it stands, they would host a three-game set at Wrigley to start the playoffs. They are trying to keep it that way and take advantage of their home-field advantage.
About a week ago, the Padres and Diamondbacks were in a dogfight for the last playoff spot. Since then, the Padres have gotten hot and pulled away, and now are more at odds with Chicago and Philadelphia than they are with Arizona. If they stay hot and one of those teams falters, we could see some early postseason baseball at Petco Park.
The Phillies are the only wild card team still mathematically alive for their division. They didn’t help themselves out when they lost their last series of the season to Atlanta last weekend. A lot would have to go right for the Phillies to take over the NL East. They, like the other wild card teams, are mainly fighting to host the crucial wild card series.
The Diamondbacks have a very small chance to make the playoffs at this point. Seven games remain, and they are four games back. They do play three with the Padres, but they will likely need to both sweep that series and receive some help.
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