The World Series is finally upon us. After three weeks of fantastic postseason baseball, the MLB is finally down to two teams: the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians. Neither of these teams are a very familiar face in the Fall Classic. The Indians haven’t been to a World Series in just under two decades, last appearing in 1997 and losing to the Marlins 4-3. The Cubs last made an appearance another 50 years prior: in 1945, when they lost to the Detroit Tigers in seven games. Of course, neither team just goes to the World Series for the sake of going, their goal is to win it all; and while the Cubs’ 108 year drought without a World Series is one of the most famed in all of pro sports, the Indians last won a World Series in 1948. That’s a combined 176 years these two teams have gone without a championship and both are hungry for a title.
But that’s all in the past, one of those World Series droughts will be ended over the next couple weeks in what should be a very entertaining matchup against two of the most dominant teams in the MLB. The Indians coasted through the American League playoffs, only dropping one game throughout the ALDS and ALCS combined. The Cubs didn’t have too much more trouble, losing just three games on their run to the Series. But everything these teams have done to get to this point, all that matters now is how they perform over the next four to seven games. I think the Cubs will emerge as the World Series victor for the first time in over a century, and here’s why:
Superior Starting Pitching
The Indians have been renowned throughout the season for their strong pitching staff. But the Cubs pitching staff is certainly no slouch either, actually leading the entire MLB with a 3.15 ERA in the regular season (down to 2.93 in the postseason). While the Indians pitching staff has a lower ERA in the 2016 playoffs, they’ve looked a lot more reliant on their bullpen over that time. Only Corey Kluber threw more than six innings in any of his starts so far this postseason. He accounts for both of the Indians’ quality starts in the 2016 postseason. The Cubs starters, however, have accrued five quality starts so far (albeit with two additional chances to do so). Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks have both looked spectacular so far, allowing five combined runs over six starts this postseason.
I think the Indians bullpen looks stronger coming into the Series, but if the Cubs’ starters are able to carry like they have so far, they can limit the time their bullpen spends on the mound. Which allows the Cubs bullpen to be well-rested, especially compared to their Cleveland counterparts. I’m looking for Hendricks and Lester to continue their dominant runs in the postseason, and if they can draw out their starts and keep the Indians off the board, I think they’ll be in good shape throughout the series.
Their Hitting – Especially in clutch situations
Regardless of whether their pitching can only go blow-for-blow with the Indians, the Cubs offense certainly looks to be the stronger of the two headed into the series. Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.8 runs per-game this postseason, compared to Cleveland’s 3.4. In particular, I think the Cubs’ offense has looked particularly strong in the late innings of the game and clutch situations. The Cubs trailed coming into the 8th inning on four occasions against the Dodgers. They were able to come away with two wins in those games, scoring five runs in the 8th innings of games one and five. Those opportunities were only available to them after they tied the largest 9th inning comeback in postseason history to finish off the Giants in game four of the NLDS. The Indians, on the other hand, hadn’t gone into any of their seven wins trailing after the 6th inning.
Even not taking the clutch factor into effect, the Cubs offense just appears to have more weapons in general at the plate. Javier Baez leads both teams with a .342 batting average and seven RBIs this postseason. NL MVP candidate, Kris Bryant, is hitting .333 with six RBIs as well. Anthony Rizzo showed improvement through the Dodgers series, after a weak showing against the Giants. He had just one hit in 15 at-bats vs. San Francisco, compared to eight hits in 20 ABs against the Dodgers.
The Indians Extended Break
Cleveland finished their series against Toronto last Wednesday. They won’t have taken the field for six days, compared the Cubs who are coming in on just three days of rest after finishing their series against the Dodgers on Saturday. I know this may seem counter-intuitive: shouldn’t the team with more rest be coming in with an advantage? This isn’t always the case, as we saw in 2012 where the Giants swept the Tigers who had come into the series on a longer break. While one case doesn’t make it a trend, baseball players tend to be creatures of habit. They get into a rhythm of playing games day in and day out over the course of the season. It can be a bit disorienting to come back to the diamond after such a long hiatus. We’ll see if the Indians have the mentality required to avoid that potential disorientation that could cause them to get behind early in the series.
The World Series begins Tuesday, October 25 in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 8 PM Eastern time, and will be broadcast on FOX.
Stats in this piece were taken from baseballreference.com, ESPN.com, and MLB.com