The Cincinnati Reds are officially at the midpoint — 81 games — into their 2023 season. They stand at 43-38 and are tied for first place in the NL Central with the Milwaukee Brewers.
The season has been full of ups and downs, but the Reds find themselves as overachievers so far. Nobody expected them to be in first place in the division at this point. When you consider the injuries they have suffered in the starting rotation, it makes their current standing even more impressive.
What has gone right for Cincinnati to this point? What has gone wrong? With the Reds being ahead of schedule, what does that mean for the second half of the season? Have expectations changed?
Things Gone Right
On Opening Day, the Reds started three players who have since been designated for assignment, released or optioned to AAA-Louisville. Jason Vosler, Wil Myers and Jose Barrero, respectively, quickly showed that they are not quality MLB players at this time. The Reds of yesteryear may have allowed these players to linger in Cincinnati, afraid to make a move because of the capital invested in each of them. These Reds are different.
Vosler spent 28 days on the major league roster and, about two weeks after his departure, Reds rookie Matt McLain made his debut. Myers went on the injured list on May 26 and began a rehab assignment on June 9. Reds rookies Andrew Abbott and Elly de la Cruz made their debuts on June 5 and 6, respectively. Barrero was optioned to Louisville on June 16.
The Reds were aggressive in moving their highly touted prospects up through the system, and did so at the expense of existing big leaguers and the largest free agent signing of the offseason for the team. That says something.
The rookies have been nothing short of spectacular and have played an enormous role in getting the Reds to where they stand now. Three of the top ten National League rookies in OPS belong to the Reds: Matt McLain (5), Elly de la Cruz (8) and Spencer Steer (9). Andrew Abbott has given up just four runs in his first five starts for an ERA of 1.21. His four wins rank third among NL rookies this season.
Things Gone Wrong
Starting pitching has been the weakness of the team all season. Once Nick Lodolo went on the 60-day injured list on June 3, the rotation was in trouble. Then Hunter Greene went on the injured list on June 19 as well. Graham Ashcraft just returned from a two-week stint on the injured list over the weekend himself.
Greene and Lodolo will both be out until August at the least. What should have been a formidable, young three-headed monster at the top of the rotation has found itself on the shelf for most of the season.
The Reds have been forced to start Luke Weaver 13 times, Ben Lively seven times and Brandon Williamson eight times. Ashcraft has also been putrid so far this season when he has not been injured.
Cincinnati Reds starters have compiled a 5.91 ERA, which is third worst in baseball. They have accumulated the sixth-fewest WAR, according to Fangraphs as well. The rotation has been bad, and yet they have overcome it to this point.
Second Half Expectations
The Reds recently completed a 12-game winning streak and followed that up with a 3-3 stretch against the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles in back-to-back series. This hot streak directly coincided with the addition of Elly de la Cruz to the everyday lineup.
Will the Reds continue to win 83% of their games until the end of time? No. Some regression is on the horizon, and with nine games against the Milwaukee Brewers in the month of July, that regression could be poorly timed.
Because of how weak the NL Central is, the Reds’ only legitimate shot at postseason baseball in 2023 is to win the division. If the Reds can stay within a couple games of the Brewers through July and into August when Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo return, then they have a real shot at winning the division. Yet, at some point, Luke Weaver will not get an astronomical level of run support every night to withstand his disastrous first innings. Andrew Abbott will become human eventually and go through a rookie rough patch.
Another starter could go down with injury, and then what? The depth is extremely thin and the bullpen is paying a steep price for it. Maybe the Reds make a move at the deadline, or before it, to bolster the rotation. That seems unlikely at this time considering how every team need starting pitching so badly.
Expectations should be tempered for the rest of 2023. But if Nick Krall and Reds ownership actually invest in this team in the offseason… look out, 2024.
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Featured image courtesy of Reds.com
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