The San Diego Padres have clinched a playoff spot for just the second time since they won back-to-back NL West titles in 2005 and 2006. They have a record of 89-72 with just one more game to play before the postseason gets underway on Friday. The Padres will travel to New York to play a three-game series against the Mets at Citi Field.
San Diego dealt with the absence of shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. due to injury at the beginning of the season. After nearing a possible rehab assignment, he was busted for PEDs and received an 80-game suspension. The suspension will carry over into the 2023 season. The Padres made several acquisitions ahead of the trade deadline, none more impactful than the addition of Juan Soto. His bat coupled with the outstanding season from Manny Machado has anchored the offense in the second half of 2022. Strong seasons from a few starting pitchers have headlined the pitching staff for the Padres this season. San Diego looks to make noise in the playoffs for the first time since 1998 when they won the pennant.
Superstars in San Diego
The San Diego Padres’ starting lineup has been an average group for the most part in 2022. They rank 12th in runs, 15th in OPS, 19th in total bases and 20th in home runs in MLB. If not for the play of Machado and Soto, it is hard to imagine San Diego being in their current position.
A six-time all-star and MVP candidate this year, Machado has been marvelous manning the hot corner for the Padres in 2022. He has hit .294/.364/.529 with 32 home runs, 36 doubles and 101 RBIs. The 11-year veteran has posted a 158 OPS+ and ranks in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage, according to Baseball Savant. Despite a career-high strikeout rate that sits above 20 percent for the first time in his career, Machado has made up for it with an above-average walk rate and a .235 ISO this season.
After a slow start upon his arrival in San Diego, Soto has started to look like himself again. Before being dealt from Washington, he posted a .246/.408/.485 slash line with 21 home runs. With the Padres, he has slashed .240/.393/.397 with just 15 extra-base hits. His keen eye has shown throughout the year, but his power numbers have taken a hit in the second half. Still just 23-years-old, the generational talent he possesses at the plate is hard to overlook. For his career, Soto is hitting .287/.424/.526 with a 157 OPS+ across five seasons. He should only improve upon his first season in San Diego.
Taking over at first base for the since-traded Eric Hosmer is utility man Brandon Drury. Acquired from the Reds before the deadline, Drury has put together the best season of his eight-year career. He hit .274/.335/.520 with 20 home runs and 22 doubles in Cincinnati. Since the move to San Diego, he has slightly regressed but has still produced at an above-average clip. He is hitting .242/.295/.447 with 17 extra-base hits and a 114 OPS+ in 176 plate appearances.
Second baseman Jake Cronenworth has been a stabilizer in the Padres’ lineup since making his debut in 2020. The 28-year-old has declined from year to year, however. From 2020 to 2021 Cronenworth posted OPSs of over .800 with a total OPS+ above 120. In 2022 he has hit just .240/.333/.392 with a .725 OPS and a decrease in total extra-base hits from a year ago. He has still been 12 percent better than the league-average hitter and has an impressive 4.2 WAR this season, according to Baseball Reference.
In his third year with the Padres, versatile defender Jurickson Profar has put together a solid season. He has hit .243/.331/.392 with 15 home runs, 35 doubles and an OPS+ of 111. Profar has benefited from a career-high in plate appearances and at-bats in 2022. He has posted his second-best marks in total bases and extra-base hits this season, both behind his 2018 totals with the Rangers.
Filling in for Tatis Jr. at shortstop has been 26-year-old Ha-Seong Kim. In his second year at the major league level after playing in the Korean League, Kim has answered the bell. The production of Tatis Jr. is not easy to replace, but Kim has stepped up his game from a year ago in an effort to fill the void. While his offensive numbers are nothing spectacular, with a .250/.323/.383 slash line and 42 extra-base hits, his defense has provided much more value to the team. According to FanGraphs, Kim ranks in the top 20 in defensive runs saved, UZR and fielding/positional adjustment.
Pitching prowess for the Pads
The San Diego Padres’ pitching staff has been an above-average bunch in 2022. They rank inside the top 10 across MLB in WHIP, strikeouts, on-base average, fewest hits allowed and shutouts. They rank just outside the top 10 in ERA and fewest walks allowed.
The starting rotation has been impressive in 2022, led by a group of veterans who have had plenty of success over their careers. San Diego has a National League-high 83 quality starts this season.
A five-time all-star and two-time runner-up for the Cy Young Award, Yu Darvish has bounced back in his second year with San Diego. After a disappointing 2021 in which he more than doubled his ERA from 2020, this season has been much more characteristic for the veteran right-hander. He has a 3.10 ERA and a 3.31 FIP in nearly 200 innings across 30 starts. Despite posting a career-low 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings, he improved his command and has matched a career low in walk rate at just 1.7 per nine innings. Darvish has a career-low 0.950 WHIP and his lowest opposing OPS among full seasons at .587 this year.
Elected to his first all-star game this year, Joe Musgrove seems to be improving year after year. Since being traded to San Diego before the 2021 season, the 29-year-old has set career highs in ERA back-to-back seasons. This year, Musgrove has a 2.93 ERA and a 3.59 FIP in 181 innings pitched across 30 starts. His 1.083 WHIP sits just a tick above his career best that he set last season. Opponents are hitting .227/.284/.383 against Musgrove this year, and he has allowed a career-low 32.7 hard hit percentage.
Also in his second year with the Padres, Blake Snell has been a solid arm in the middle of the Padres’ rotation. Similar to Darvish, it has been somewhat of a resurgent year for Snell, who struggled in his debut season with San Diego. The left-hander has a 3.38 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 24 starts this year. He has an elite 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and has allowed just 11 home runs in 128 innings. Opposing hitters have only mustered a .216/.292/.342 slash line against Snell in 2022.
The back end of the Padres’ rotation has been far more inefficient than the top half. Sean Manaea is in his first season with the Padres and has struggled mightily as the season has progressed. His season began to spiral out of control at the midway point of the season. Manaea had a 5.40 ERA in July, a 7.88 ERA in August and a 7.00 ERA in September and October combined. He has set a career-worst in home run rate and has the second highest walk rate and WHIP of his career. The left-hander has a 5.15 ERA and a -1.2 bWAR for the season.
Easily the worst full season of his career, Mike Clevinger has also had a rough 2022. After several stellar seasons in Cleveland before a 2020 trade deadline move to San Diego, Clevinger has struggled in 2022. The right-hander has a 4.33 ERA and a 4.97 FIP in 22 starts this season. He has not been able to miss bats like he normally does, with just 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. He is one home run shy of matching his highest home run total that he set back in 2018, but in 85 fewer innings this year.
The San Diego Padres’ bullpen has been very reliable this season, especially of late with the dominance of a trade deadline acquisition. They rank in the top eight in MLB in fewest hits, earned runs, home runs and walks allowed.
San Diego attempted to bolster the back end of their bullpen when they traded for Josh Hader from the Brewers. After an abysmal start, he has dominated opposing hitters recently. He posted a 12.54 ERA in July and a 19.04 ERA in August before turning the corner a month ago. He has stymied opposing hitters to a .114/.180/.143 slash line and has a 0.581 WHIP and 0.87 ERA in 11 appearances since the beginning of September.
Pitching in his third season, Nabil Crismatt has pitched to the tune of a 2.98 ERA in 49 appearances. He has only allowed four home runs in 63 innings and hitters have a .651 OPS against him on the season. The right-hander has a 126 ERA+ on the season.
Journeyman Luis Garcia has composed one of his best seasons as a major leaguer in 2022. The right-hander has 3.15 ERA and a 2.49 FIP in 63 appearances out of the bullpen. He is averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings and has only allowed three long balls in 60 innings pitched.
In his rookie season, Steven Wilson has been impressive in 49 appearances. The right-hander has a 2.94 ERA and 4.03 FIP with a 1.038 WHIP on the year. He is limiting opposing hitters to a meager .189/.271/.341 slash line and is averaging over nine strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Fellow rookie Robert Suarez has also dazzled in his first season. The Venezuelan-born right-hander has a 2.31 ERA and a 3.30 FIP in 44 appearances. Suarez has 1.071 WHIP and has given up just 5.6 hits per nine innings pitched. His strikeout rate of 11.4 is second among Padres relievers who have made at least 15 relief appearances.
The trio of Nick Martinez, veteran Craig Stammen and left-hander Tim Hill have each had very similar seasons from a productivity standpoint. They have all posted ERAs hovering around 3.50 and WHIPs between 1.221 and 1.291. Hill has only allowed a single home run in 48 innings pitched. Stammen has forced a ground ball rate higher than 50 percent in five of his six seasons in San Diego. Martinez has had a career year following a five-year absence from the major leagues to help stabilize the bullpen.
First ring for the Friar Faithful?
The San Diego Padres have yet to win their first World Series Championship. They have only made two appearances to the Fall Classic, losing in 1984 and 1998 to the Tigers and Yankees, respectively. The Padres last made the postseason in 2020, losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-game wild card series. San Diego has not hosted a playoff game with their home fans in attendance since 2006, when they fell to the Cardinals in the division series. The Padres will have to play on the road in a three-game wild card series, so in order to play postseason baseball in front of a home crowd for the first time in 16 years, they will need to upset a superior Mets team.
The offense has been decent but needs its top contributors to continue to play at an elite level to spark a deep run in the playoffs. The lineup does not have a ton of depth offensively, but can still manufacture runs by getting on base for its two sluggers in Machado and Soto to drive in. The starting staff has postseason experience that could pay dividends for San Diego. Snell, Darvish, Musgrove and Clevinger have all pitched in the World Series before and need to deliver in their starts, given they will likely make up the four-man playoff rotation. If they can capitalize on previous playoff experience and pitch to their strengths, San Diego will be tough to hit. The Padres and their long-suffering fans are yearning for a championship as playoff baseball will soon be underway.