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2018 MLB preview: New York Mets

2017: 70-92 (fourth place in NL East)

Last Postseason Appearance: 2016

Last World Series Title: 1986

2017 Recap

One word to define the New York Mets 2017 season? Injuries. Throughout the season, New York lost, most notably, Noah Syndergaard, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, David Wright, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zach Wheeler, and Jeurys Familia. Jose Reyes was the only player on the Mets to play in at least 140 games.

It all started in April when Syndergaard declined to undergo an MRI, even though doctors encouraged he do so. Of course, a team like the Mets did not force him to get the test. On April 30, Syndergaard exited a game against the Nationals, and ultimately tore his lat. He did not make it back until the last week of the season.  “Thor” finished the year with a 2.97 ERA in his seven starts.

Besides for Jacob DeGrom, who, in 201 innings, went 15-10 with a 3.53 ERA and finished fifth in strikeouts, the Mets staff was absolutely atrocious. Below is a table which illustrates how poor the other starters for New York performed in 2017. The Mets finished with the fourth most walks and total bases, 26th in Opp. SLG, 27th in Opp. OPS, 28th in ERA, and 29th in BAA and WHIP.

METS PITCHERS WHO MADE AT LEAST 13 STARTS, NOT NAMED JACOB DEGROM

NAME (STARTS)ERA
ROBERT GSELLMAN (22)5.19
SETH LUGO (18)4.71
RAFAEL MONTERO (18)5.52
MATT HARVEY (18)6.70
ZACH WHEELER (17)5.21
STEVEN MATZ (13)6.08
2017 NL All-Star, Michael Conforto (NJ.com)

Among the 15 NL teams, the Mets finished last in steals, and 11th in OBP and hits. In regards to the entire league, New York finished 19th in runs, and 27th in run differential. As a team, they ranked 28th in WAR.

However, some positives came out of this bad situation. Outfielder Michael Conforto, who started the season as the Mets fourth outfielder, worked his way into the lineup and was selected to the 2017 MLB All-Star Game. Unfortunately, in typical Mets fashion, Conforto, after taking a swing in a Late-August game, dislocated his left shoulder and tore his posterior capsule, which required season-ending surgery.

In his 109 games, Conforto hit 27 home runs, with a .279 batting average and .384 OBP. He also led the team in SLG and OPS, and hit .320 with men in scoring position. Because of the offseason shoulder surgery, Conforto will be out until the beginning of May.

2018: Around the Diamond

With an entirely new medical team in place, the Mets hope to turn back into the team that won the NL Pennant in 2015. New York brought back Jose Reyes, who stole 24 bases, and finished seventh in triples, as well as Jay Bruce, who hit 29 home runs and 75 RBIs in 2017. They also signed Adrian Gonzalez, who will start at first base. The 5x All-Star and 4x Gold Glove Award winner fought injuries last season, but still has some left in the tank. As an everyday player in 2016, Gonzalez hit .285 with 18 home runs. The Mets desperately need production out of their first basemen, a position in which they finished 27th in WAR in 2017.

Yoni is ready to go for 2018 (SI.com)

The Mets also struggled with getting any output out of the hot corner. Last season they ranked 28th in WAR for third basemen. To save the day, New York signed Todd Frazier, who hit 27 home runs, walked 83 times, and posted a .344 OBP. Joining Gonzalez and Frazier in the infield will be Asdrubal Cabrera, who was second on the team in OBP and doubles, and Amed Rosario, a former top prospect who struggled in his first 46 MLB games, but hit .328 with seven home runs and 19 steals in 94 AAA games. Rosario strikes out a lot and needs to draw more walks, but let’s hope he turns into the player that the Mets expected.

Mets star Yoenis Cespedes dealt with hamstring injuries in 2017 and played in just 81 games. He still was able to hit .290, 17 home runs and slug .540. He homered in his spring training debut so all seems well for the left fielder. Jay Bruce will remain in right, and Juan Lagares, who has a new swing in 2018, will most likely start in center until Conforto is healthy. Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki will split time behind the plate, and, when the team travels to an American League ballpark, look for Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores or Jose Reyes to get some time at DH.

On the Bump

After DeGrom and Syndergaard, this rotation is filled with giant question marks. Matt Harvey was horrendous last season, especially late, posting a 1-4 record with a 11.28 ERA in September. Zach Wheeler has only made 17 starts since his 2015 Tommy John, and has not been impressive at all. Steven Matz had season-ending elbow surgery in August, but was terrible when he pitched. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, two pitchers who finished second and third on the team in starts, had poor 2017’s.

Expect big seasons from both Syndergaard and DeGrom (FOX Sports)

Last week, New York signed Jason Vargas, who, last season, went 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA with Kansas City. New York also brought in AJ Griffin to help with depth. In all likelihood, Vargas, Harvey, and Wheeler will join DeGrom and Syndergaard in the starting rotation. But don’t sleep on Gsellman, who had a 3.50 ERA in the second half of 2017.

In 2017, The Mets finished 29th in bullpen ERA. Familia missed time, but is good to go for 2018, and will serve as the primary closer. Joining him in the bullpen, most notably, will be Jerry Blevins, who in 75 appearances, went 6-0 with a 2.94 ERA, AJ Ramos, and Anthony Swarzak.

The Future

Although New York has no members on MLB.com’s, 2018 Top 100 Prospect’s list, there a few names to remember. Andres Gimenez, New York’s top prospect, is a 19-year-old shortstop who is a nice defender, with above average speed, and a good eye at the plate. David Peterson, the Mets first round pick in 2017, pitched well in his three A-Short starts, and has potential to be a solid number three at some point.

Peter Alonso could be the future starting 1B for the Mets. A former second round pick. Alonso, in 93 games between A+/AA, slashed .289/.359/.524 with 18 home runs. Dominic Smith may be ahead of him on the depth chart, but if Alonso continues to hit, there is no reason as to why he will not become an everyday player. As far as player comparisons, Alonso looks like a right-handed Justin Bour.

2018 Prediction: 78-84

With the majority of their better players now healthy, New York will improve from last year’s win total, but don’t expect this team to be playing in the postseason. DeGrom and Syndergaard are great, but the backend of the rotation cannot be trusted. This lineup is weak and, besides for Cespedes and maybe Jay Bruce, no one in this order is feared.

Featured image by MLB.com

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