The halfway point of the competitive League of Legends season is here, which means it is time to predict the outcome of the first international event of the season.
Here’s what Vegas thinks:
The Koreans Continue Their Reign
Vegas isn’t shying away from their belief that DAWMON Gaming is the best team in the world. Previously listed as +250 favorites to win the 2021 World Championship, Vegas is giving DAMWON gaming -175 odds to win MSI. Even crazier, Vegas is letting you bet the field — meaning anyone but DAMWON — at +125 odds to win.
If they do win, they would be the first team since 2014 SK Telecom T1 to win MSI after winning Worlds the previous year. They would also be the first favorites to win the event since 2017 SK Telecom T1 managed to do so.
That’s a lot of pressure to live up to.
They’re also heavy favorites to win Group C (-2500) and have an incredible -20000 odds to qualify for the rumble stage.
Vegas Hasn’t Forgotten About MAD Lions’ International Woes
Giving them the third-best odds to win the event, Vegas is still skeptical about the representatives from Europe. Surprising most of the world with their LEC Spring Finals victory, the organization is looking to continue their hot streak with a good showing at MSI.
But three of their five members were a part of the MAD Lions group that failed to make it out of the play-in stage at last year’s Worlds. Despite adding İrfan “Armut” Tükek and Javier “Elyoya” Prades Batalla, their 2020 Worlds failure was a team effort that could come back to haunt them even after adding these two players.
A team that has made their living off excellent team fighting performances in the LEC this spring will get the opportunity to do so at MSI. And as history has shown, good team-fighting always manages to give teams shots at contending for championships. But it is tough to ignore how their style will impact their individual prop-line performances.
Vegas Is Improving Their Prop Game
Potentially my favorite prop bet this season, Vegas is allowing you to bet on the most slain elemental drake type.
It’s dumb. It’s random. I love it.
In 2021, Infernal has been the most secured dragon type — with 5806 infernal drakes being taken across the globe. Second is ocean drake — 5784. Mountain is coming up in third by a small margin of ten drakes (5774) and cloud is last with 5719.
They’re also giving a line for highest total kills and highest kills from a player in a single map.
At MSI 2019, the bloodiest game was between Invictus Gaming and Phong Vũ Buffalo — where they put up a total of 50 kills in the match. This was the only match that went over the line set for this year’s MSI: 50 (-120). Yu “JackeyLove” Wen-Bo of Invictus Gaming would also win the honors of most kills in a single match at the event — securing 15 against G2 Esports. Vegas is currently listing the line for most kills from a player at 13.5. If you think someone will secure over 13.5 kills in a match, you can get -150 odds. If you think that won’t happen, the odds are +110.
Maybe the most interesting prop bet comes with the highest death total for a game from a single team. Surprisingly, the team that fed the most in a single game is the tournament favorites DAMWON with their 32 deaths against KT Rolster. MAD Lions hold the highest average deaths per game at 13.9.
The One Bet to Watch
Vegas thinks it is going to be an LPL – LCK final. The rumble format is trying to make that happen – basically creating a situation where the first and second-best team in the tournament will make it through the rumble stage as the first and second seed — avoiding a potential match-up in the semi-finals of the tournament.
Even with this in mind, we’ve only see the LPL-LCK face off against each other in the finals twice — 2015 and 2018. It isn’t wrong to think that it can happen again in 2021 — looking at the pattern. It just means that there is still the potential for someone to sneak in.
The odds being given to the rest of the world are somewhat surprising as a result of this information. Despite maybe a lack of confidence in MAD Lions to perform, paying out $6 on a $1 bet is a lot. The North America representatives, despite being in what is considered the weakest of the “big four” regions, is built to compete at the international stage. Even the wildcard representatives have put pressure on the top teams in the world in recent memory.
“From Our Haus to Yours”