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Predictions: The Game Haus’ 90-50-10 for Worlds 2020

The 2020 Worlds Main event Groups

The 2020 League of Legends World Championship completed its group draw, as it gears up for the game’s most prestigious event. For the Play-In Stage, here is a look at Group A and Group B. For the Group Stage, checkout who ended up with who here. Fans and analysts have already begun their predictions for how these groups might play out. The Game Haus decided to put together its writers’ 90-50-10 predictions. Each writer chose predictions they find 90 percent likely, 50 percent likely, and 10 percent likely to happen at Worlds 2020, based on the group draw.

Thomas Baker

90% – FlyQuest do not make it out of Group Stage

Although FlyQuest have grown immensely in 2020 and Showcased Greatness in the LCS, they have a killer group for Worlds. Top Esports and DRX are powerhouse teams that could very well win this whole tournament. MAD Lions most likely joins from the Play-In Stage. All three of these teams average game times three to four minutes faster than FLY. MAD are definitely the most exploitable, but European teams have historically adapted quickly at Worlds. Hopefully, PowerOfEvil and IgNar can find some of that 2017 Misfits magic to get into the Knockout Stage.

TSM making it out of Group C is one of Thomas Baker's Predictions (50%)

TSM making it out of Group C is one of Thomas Baker’s Predictions (50%)

50% – TSM makes it out of Group C

Sure, TSM are the first seed team in Group C, but it still seems like a coin flip. Assuming LGD makes it through Play-Ins (its own 90 percent prediction), they get slotted into Group C by default, because every other group already has an LPL representative. 

Fnatic have had some of the most polarizing performances in the world. They finished the Summer Split regular season 9-9, going 0-2 against G2, MAD, Rogue and Schalke. However, they regularly make deep runs at Worlds, and they were the second-place LEC team in both 2020 splits. 

Gen.G were consistently the third-place LCK team this summer. They only went 0-2 versus DRX, while tying 1-1 with T1 and DAMWON, and going 2-0 against all other teams. TSM showed similar consistency against LCS teams, only finishing 0-2 against FlyQuest and Team Liquid. However, TSM turned it on and took down those stronger opponents in the playoffs, where Gen.G needed to win the LCK gauntlet to make Worlds. 

Throw LGD into the mix, a team that finished sixth in the summer regular season, fourth in playoffs, and beat out Invictus Gaming in the gauntlet. This group is the least predictable, which makes it difficult to predict TSM over 50 percent likelihood to make it out. TSM could reasonably place first, second, third, or fourth in their group, depending on how everyone reads the meta, adapts, and performs. 

10% – TL makes it out of Group Stage

Most likely, Team Liquid qualifies to the Main Event alongside LGD, MAD Lions and PSG Talon. If this happens, then TL auto-seeds into Group A, where they have decent odds against G2, Suning and Machi. However, if another team upsets PSG Talon and takes their spot in the Main Event, TL could draw into Group B. If that happens, then they would certainly struggle to get out of the group. TL really wants PSG to qualify from Play-Ins to stay in Group A. 

JDG and DAMWON splitting games is one of Aaron Preuss' Predictions (90%)
JDG and DAMWON splitting games is one of Aaron Preuss’ Predictions (90%)

Aaron Preuss

90% – JDG and DAMWON split their matches in Group Stage

JDG and DAMWON share similar strengths in that the top side of the map is their dominant side. Zoom versus Nuguri (assuming healthy for Worlds) is the matchup of the two best top laners in the World. The same can be said for the jungle matchup of Kanavi and Canyon. There is a difference in terms of the mid lane in Showmaker versus Yagao. However, if Yagao can get Zoe in one of these two games, he can certainly take over a game, as was seen against Knight in the finals.

50% – No North American team wins 3 or more games in Group Stage

FlyQuest will struggle to win a single game at World’s given the group they’re in. However, given DragonX’s inconsistency, especially Deft’s back problems, they take one game off of DRX. Assuming MAD Lions take the 4th spot in that group, they match up pretty well with FlyQuest, so probably 1-1. Team Liquid could take games off of Machi and Suning, but most likely not G2. Say they 2-0 Machi and go 1-1 with Suning. That means at best they can get a tiebreaker against Suning, and we all know how those go. TSM could finish first or last in their group, depending on how the rest of the teams show up. Assuming best form, they probably lose both games to Gen.G and split with Fnatic and LGD, which leaves them at 2-4.

10% – G2 finishes second to Suning in Group A

Lastly, Suning is actually really good at League. A lot of teams are underrating them. Given how well Suning played in the playoffs, taking first over G2 isn’t out of the question. SwordArt and SoFM are one of the best jungle-support duos in the world. If SwordArt can unlock to roam and make plays with SoFM in groups, they could end with a 4-2 game score and top Group A.

JJ Fonseca

LGD making it out of Play-Ins is one of JJ Fonseca's Predictions (90%)
LGD making it out of Play-Ins is one of JJ Fonseca’s Predictions (90%)

90% – LGD gets out of Play-Ins

The fourth seed coming from the LPL should have a fairly easy time in Play-Ins. With PSG Talon suffering, due to part of their roster unable to join for the first stage, LGD’s direct competition is knocked down a peg. However, even with the roster changes, PSG Talon can’t be underestimated. The Unicorns of Love have been on a tear this year and are coming in hot. Rainbow7 is full of young talent ready to prove themselves,  and V3 finally dethroned Detonation FocusMe as the number 1 LJL team. LGD can’t let their guard down for any of these games.

50% – Whoever gets placed in Group B leaves winless

With JD Gaming, DAMWON, and Rogue already placed in Group B, it is shaping up to be the “Group of Death.” While MAD Lions and LGD are looking like the strongest teams in Play-Ins, neither of them can be placed in Group B, due to the LPL and LEC already having a team in the group. That leaves PSG Talon as the favorites to make into the group. If a wildcard team upsets PSG Talon, then that team or Team Liquid could place into Group B. However, none of these teams seem to be on the level of JDG, DAMWON, or Rogue. While Rogue might not be as scary as the likes of JDG or DAMWON, they seem to be a level ahead of the likes of Team Liquid, PSG Talon, or any other possible Play-In team to place in this group.

10% – DRX doesn’t make it out of Group D

DRX are coming into Worlds as the second seed from the LCK. Slotted into Pool 2, they are in the same group as TOP, FlyQuest, and, most likely, MAD Lions. While DRX are the favorites to make it out behind TOP, MAD and FlyQuest can’t be overlooked. LCS teams have done well in week one in the past, and should FlyQuest manage to sneak a win against DRX, they could be in trouble. And while MAD Lions comes in as the fourth LEC seed, they still deserve respect due to how well they played for most of Summer Split.

Terry Oh

90% – DRX or TOP wins Group D

FlyQuest getting knocked out of Group Stage is an easy prediction. The flip-side is DRX or TOP will take first in Group Stage. Between the two teams, though, it is uncertain who will come out the victor. Either team could even make it to the Finals of the entire World Championship. Choosing one to win Group D is difficult, but it is almost certainly one of the two of them comes out on top.

50% – Gen.G wins Group C

In Group C, TSM versus Gen.G is the matchup to watch. TSM have been playing fantastically this season, and Gen.G are solid. Ruler will probably show an ADC diff, and BDD outmatches Bjergsen. Fnatic will also likely lose. However, Gen.G probably will not move too far into Worlds out of Group Stage. The LCK showed a vast power difference, with DWG and DRX a tier above the other Korean teams.

TOP sweeping Group D is one of Terry Oh's Predictions (10%)
TOP sweeping Group D is one of Terry Oh’s Predictions (10%)

10% – Top Esports completely sweeps Group D

DRX is a great team, but Top Esports has proved their worth in both the LPL and the Mid Season Cup. If they manage to stick together and play as they have, it’s very possible they FlyQuest. DRX is the real matchup in question. Recently, Gen.G and DRX matched up 2-3, with DRX winning the series. In the Mid Season Cup, Top Esports swept Gen.G 3-0.
The matchup is dependent on how well DRX functions as a team, rather than individual skill. DRX plays better as a unit than through amazing solo carries. So if Top Esports manages to out-match them as a unit, then DRX might not come back from the initial loss.
Robert Hanes

90% – A Minor Region Does Not Make Knockouts

Minor regions making it out of Play-Ins is not that rare but this year it is especially hard. With the LPL and LEC having four teams plus the groups already looking extremely hard, there is little reason to believe any minor region teams make it far. The only one that has any chance might be Unicorns of Love. Their dominance combined with Worlds experience might just be enough to edge them into Groups. After that, they would have to hope they get into Group A and even in that group it is far from easy for them.

50% – A Western Team Makes it to the Semifinals

This one has happened quite a few times recently with Cloud9, Fnatic and G2 all making deep runs. While the LPL teams are generally scary and most of the LCK teams are strong, it feels like the LEC specifically is sending some good teams as well. When looking at the Groups it feels like G2 have a pretty easy one and even if MAD Lions get a tough group, they could still surprise as they have done when overlooked in the past. Also not strongly considering Fnatic is always a mistake as even with the group they are in, they have a lot of experience to lean on and could make a deep run. Lastly even the LCS has a decent chance. Group C for TSM is not the worst or best for them to have been in, they will have to play well but making it out and making a run wouldn’t be impossible. Also with Team Liquid likely getting into Group A, they could make it out and try to upset some teams as well. Point is, there are plenty of scenarios where a Western team makes it to the top four teams and even a 50% chance on is happening seems a bit low.
10% – TSM Finish as the 1 Seed in Group C
Even the most diehard TSM fan would agree with this one. It is not that the team can’t perform well, they absolutely can. It is more about the fact that between Gen.G, Fnatic and likely LGD being in their group, it is hard to see them going 5-1 or 6-0 which is likely what will be needed to be the first seed. That said, do not sleep on this team. When it has all of its pieces going it can challenge the LCK third seed, LEC second seed and LPL fourth seed. While not the “group of life”, one can argue that this is a solid group that TSM can really limit test themselves in and push for a second seed.


Images from LoL Esports

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