In 2003, the Michael Lewis’ masterpiece Moneyball found its way onto the shelves of bookstores across North America. The book centered around the 2002 Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane’s usage of statistical analysis to construct the best possible line-up. It became the bible for sports statistics nerds. So much so, my brother would gift me the book, delivering the phrase, “if you want to be smart, read this book.”
I skimmed it, I was 7.
The 2011 movie adaptation would generate more interest about Billy Beane’s work. The term “moneyball” would become common vernacular. It was this idea of making the most out of your money available when it came to building sports teams. Instead of spending money on top-rated prospects by their genetics, the idea was now to look at the data of a player.
But Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s didn’t win a championship. They would suffer four straight ALCS losses between 2000 and 2003. Despite it being revolutionary of a general manger to think this way, Beane never reached the top of the mountain. Instead, he would pave the way for people like Theo Epstein to take his foundation and run with it. Because while stats can help you find great players, you sometimes need a decent bankroll to make it happen.
Golden Guardians were faced with a tough ask in 2021.
Teams in the NBA would be hit with large financial losses resulting from COVID-19’s impact on revenue-generating mediums. The Golden State Warriors would be hit even harder given the fact that they were moving into a new basketball arena in San Francisco — which cost the owners roughly $1.4 billon to develop.
Don’t feel so bad for them, they would sell the naming rights to JPMorgan Chase for $300m over 20 years in 2019.
As a result, the owners would restrict the amount of cash flow to their esports organization. Tasked with building a roster on a limited budget, general manager Danan Flander and head coach Nick Smith would do the best that they could. They would improve from 3-15 in the spring to 14-31 for the season. And they would do it in an impressive fashion. Rookie mid-laner Nicholas “Ablazeolive” Abbott would shine. And their mid-season acquisition of an underperforming top-laner in Eric “Licorice” Ritchie would turn around their slow start.
Unfortunately for the coaching staff, this may have cost them.
Golden Guardians have announced what appears to be another budget line-up. Taking crucial parts from their 2021 roster, they’re looking to once again get on a path of improvement and attempt to recreate the magic they were seeing in 2020.
Can they do it with this line-up though?
Strategically speaking, Golden Guardians have followed a relatively similar structure with their teams in the “Nick Smith” era.
You can expect a lot of focus on the bottom side of the map — given Smith’s focus on developing the support position. A reliable marksman is incredibly important. High mechanics aren’t necessarily that important. Instead, the focus is on proper spacing and positioning. Being able to output a ton of damage is more important than being able to “Vayne 1v9.”
The top lane is relatively on an island. This would change a bit with the arrival of Licorice — who would see a stark increase in jungle proximity statistics compared to the proximity Aiden “Niles” Tidwell received. This did appear to be a result of the new top-laner’s performance with attention along with adjustments to the support role.
And the mid and jungle would be more reactionary in terms of their approach. Ablazeolive would be a wildcard — working his way all over the map while still having a presence in the mid-lane. Despite being demoted to academy, Ethan “Iconic” Wilkinson really found his stride in the second half of the year navigating the map and reacting to information.
The new team has a lot of players that could fit into that respective system.
After a disappointing 2021, Lawrence “Lost” Hui will be looking to redeem himself.
Despite promoting Lost from their academy system, the main TSM roster didn’t know the type of player they had. A beast in strong side situations, TSM Academy played well through their marksman, understanding the importance of the 2v2. But in the majors, it would be different. Hu “SwordArt” Shuo-Chieh would battle Jo “CoreJJ” Yong-in for the title of “Who could care less about their marksman’s wellbeing.” The team focused on skirmish control, grouping exceptionally well as a team. It was a strategy that worked — it just wasn’t the best for the marksman.
The team is also bringing in Milo “Pridestalker” Wehnes.
If you did not watch the Prime League 2021 Winter Cup, you missed out. Because Pridestalker would go on an absolute rampage. A 6.0 KDA, a 71.9% kill participation, 547 damage per minute and a 39% first blood percentage over 23 games. He played carrying junglers and he most certainly carried — five games with 10 or more kills.
He really has found his form in recent European Regional Leagues. Leaving the LEC stage after 2018 spring after not seeing his aggressive solo queue play-style translate, he’s now found a way to make it work. His ability to manage the pace of the game will definitely surprise teams in the LCS.
But why did they have to sign Olleh?
Kim “Olleh” Joo-sung has been out of the LCS for a while now. Potentially for good reason, he hasn’t been the same player since pairing with Yiliang “Peter” “Doublelift” Peng in 2018. He would fall into the academy scene as a support the following year. After Dignitas Academy moved on from him, he would join Golden Guardians in a coaching role, only to move on from the team in the same month and return to Korea.
In his TwitLonger detailing his return, he acknowledged his poor performance but connected it to passion concerns. He provided details regarding his solo queue performances this past year along with a lot of games played.
But it’s solo queue.
At his peak, Olleh was considered one of the best imports to ever come to North America. But time has passed. He continues to be a positive influence on Twitter and social media and one of the more beloved figures in the scene. Yet being nice only gets you so far.
It is tough to ignore his mental lapses at international events. It is tough to ignore how dramatically he fell in terms of individual performances without a strong leader like Doublelift or Kim “Reignover” Yeu-jin telling him what to do. Potentially being paired with in-game leaders may fix his woes. But still, we truly have no idea what we’re going to see from him.
At least they have two solid pieces on the top side of the map.
As disappointing as it is to not see the “spicy” decision or the bold move, Golden Guardians built a reasonable lineup. There is a clear structure in place and a clear path to how they’ll likely approach games and likely how they will win games. Solid roster construction along with reasonable strategy gets you pretty far in domestic play.
But, as Billy Beane painfully understands, it doesn’t get you as far as you desire. Are Golden Guardians even desiring the highest level of success?
Rosters like Golden Guardians are super reliant on incredible overperformances. Arbitraging the misevaluation of League of Legends players hasn’t provided dividends. Instead, the success stories often have come with less risky yet higher investments. 100 Thieves reaped the rewards of Golden Guardians’ hard work and Golden Guardians has nothing to show for it. And Team Liquid continues to drop bags.
That’s the messed up thing about management in LCS organizations.
There really isn’t any reason to be “slightly above average” in competitive League of Legends. Times moves so fast. Golden Guardians should be a respectable team this season but it won’t matter. Their peak is potentially fighting for a top-three spot, potentially selling the contract of their mid or jungle in the offseason and hoping that their front office can save the day the following season.
Their return to fighting through limitations is one of the most disappointing things of this offseason. A coaching staff that has continued to be miracle workers, a young mid-laner that has the potential to blossom had to fill outstanding areas of their team with misfits.
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1 Comment
Really good article with a great transition from 2021 to 2022. I may not be fans of all these players but I am curious to see where this approach gets GG and DIG, who also opted for a cheaper roster.